Depends on how early it’s caught. If it’s caught before Duskendale and Ruby Ford, for example, the Northern army is up 5,500 men and some of their best battlefield commanders, Robb retakes the North. 

Main difference would seem to be what happens to the Freys – do they go back into pocket? Do they start killing eachother? – and the Boltons, who won’t be ruling the North any time soon. 

Fairly rare. Noble houses tend to sprawl, and medieval European nobility were more keen on remote cousins inheriting than Westerosi.  

rewenzo:

racefortheironthrone:

I think he absolutely knew about the incest and was going to use that to set aside those kids. 

Really? It seemed to me that Renly was genuinely surprised when Catelyn corroborated Stannis’ story, before deciding that it didn’t really change anything.

Plus, Cersei seems to think that Robert means to set her aside and Robert has no clue about the incest.

I’m pretty convinced about this. No way does Mace Tyrell let his daughter be turned into a royal concubine, or let some other woman’s kids come before his grandkids in the line of succession – Renly had to tell him something to convince him. In ACOK, Renly doesn’t want to admit that it’s the truth, because that means Stannis is the rightful heir – and given how Catelyn’s responding, it potentially means the Starks side with Stannis. As long as Renly pretends that Joffrey is the legitimate king and might makes right, he’s no less or more a rebel than his brother in the eyes of his bannermen and Stannis’ claims are mere self-interested propaganda. 

She thinks he will, but in association with Renly’s plot. And Cersei knows her secret’s out – JA knew, Stannis probably knows, etc. 

Right, but those visions are interspersed with visions of the red door, of her son, of the wonderful wizards who’ll teach her the speech of dragons…and even the true dreams are meant to distract her from the fact that the Warlocks are feeding off her lifeforce. 

And Euron’s whole backstory is about him being a failed apprentice, so I don’t think he’s got the insight necessary. 

It doesn’t make a huge amount of sense – Summerhall would have worked even better – but I’m guessing GRRM invented the ToJ purely because he needed the proximity to Starfall. 

He’s in Lys. 

I don’t know if I have a lot of insight into Elia. It’s interesting that in her case, her fate was decided by her mother and not her father, but she didn’t end up any better than Lysa or Cersei or Catelyn. 

From the little we learn about her, she seems like a genuinely good person whose life was completely obliterated, in part by the schemes and callousness of men with power, and in part because the man she loved cared so little for her. Leaving aside Lyanna – why the hell did he not keep her in Dragonstone or send her to Dorne, where she would be safe? Why leave her in the custody of a lunatic who hates her?

Both Stark daughters taken from their families and disappeared – but then again, that applies to Arya too. 

And the parallel is a lot stronger with Arya, especially with Ned’s comparisons, the horse-riding thing, the Knight of the Laughing Tree and Bran’s visions of Lyanna and Benjen swordfighting, etc. 

It’s a similar incident, but I don’t think it’s what GRRM had in mind. He’s been pretty clear that his influences were the Black Dinner and the Glencoe Massacre. 

It’s magical, sure, but it’s illusion magic – it’s meant to fool you, to distract you, to make you reach for power fantasies rather than genuine revelation. When it comes to the Warlocks, there is no there there, just endless layers of surface, all of it false and corruptive.