They killed Elia’s husband who had just publicly humiliated and discarded her, and put her in power over the Seven Kingdoms. She’s not necessarily their friend, but I don’t see how she’s their bitterest enemy, either. Put in Jon Arryn as Hand of the King, and put a couple of other prominent rebels on the Small Council, and you’re not necessarily in a terrible position.

I’m sure Elia was angry with her husband – but she’s not going to be friends with his murderers, the men who sacked King’s Landing and murdered the King, who killed her uncle and thousands of her countrymen, and who are holding her and her children hostage. 

This just doesn’t make sense by anyone’s political interests. The rebels have absolutely no reason to keep the Targaryens on the Iron Throne when it means an enormous risk that an adult Aegon VI will have them all executed for killing his father, and Elia has no reason to work with her enemies. 

Is Cersei’s “Golden Bank of Lannisport” notion really a good idea? From the text is always assumed it was another silly, unattainable pipe dream like her thought about building a new castle across the river???

marxism-leninism-memeism:

racefortheironthrone:

It’s an incredibly good idea. Casterly Rock has an enormous, enormous amount of gold that’s sitting in the vaults not doing anything or at most being used for the Lannister war machine and nonproductive political loans. If you turn it into the liquid reserves of a bank, through the magic of fractional reserve banking, you can create many, many times more money than is in the Rock while still retaining a fairly conservative reserve rate (i.e, what percent of your reserves aren’t lent out so that they’re on hand to pay depositors who want to access their money). 

The Lannisters lent 3 million gold to Robert Baratheon without blinking, paid off Jaehaerys II’s war debts without breaking a sweat. Their yearly income is at least a million a year, given how much they gave to Robert on a yearly basis. Forbes thinks that they have around 2.1 million gold in the Rock; I’ve seen estimates of up to 200 million gold. As a max figure, based on 6,000 years of earning a million a year (not considering any interest), they may have around 6 billion gold dragons in the vaults of the Rock. 

So let’s take an average of these estimates and say they have 2 billion gold saved up. To begin with, that 2 billion equates to 380% of Westeros’ GDP. If they lent it out at a relatively conservative 10% reserve rate, they’d generate 20 billion in deposits and 17 billion in loans. In other words, just by putting the money into circulation instead of sticking it under a big rock, the Westerosi economy would grow by almost 4,000%

in all fairness while medieval economies often were severely depressed due to lack of coinage assuming that a growth in the money supply would automatically result in aggregate increases in consumption and investment is… pushing things a little

Well, yeah, you want to avoid a 16th/17th century Spain situation, where the sheer flood of gold leads to a massive wave of inflation that kills domestic manufacturing. And yes, there’s an underlying limit to economic growth depending on population growth, natural resources, and the level of technology. 

But, in so far as access to capital is a key determinant of development, yes the Golden Bank of Lannisport would be a huge boon to Westeros.

Since you’ve been pretty critical (rightly, I think) of Balon’s generation of Greyjoy leadership, what do you this about previous leaders we’ve known about? Quellon? Dalton? Dagon?

Dalton and Dagon were both idiots who brought their people nothing but misery and death

Quellon was a very forward-thinking man who should have not listened to his son about invading the Reach during Robert’s Rebellion. Vickon Greyjoy was also sensible politician.

Many of the Hoare Kings – Horgan Hoare, who allowed religious toleration, Harmund the Host who spread literacy and education, or Harmund the Haggler who built alliances with the Lannisters, Hightowers, and Gardeners, Harmund the Handsome, who tried to end reaving and thralldom, Harwyn Hoare who made the Ironborn rich by seeking trade and avoiding war – actually left the Iron Islands better than when they started, or at least tried. 

Yeah, obviously overthrowing Edward II didn’t work out great in the long run for Roger Mortimer. I suppose, assuming Rhaella still dies in childbirth, making Elia the Regent would probably make the most sense, since she should be relatively inoffensive both to Targaryen loyalists and to the rebels. It would obviously be a tricky situation, but it’s hard to see how the results could have turned out *worse* for Ned Stark, Robert Baratheon, and Jon Arryn than what they actually did.

Elia the Regent would be a terrible idea. She’s a Martell, Ned, Robert, and Jon have just killed her husband if not her children. She’s going to be their bitterest enemy – why hand her the reins of power?

Would it make made more political sense to spare Elia and Rhaenys at least? If only to pacify Dorne and potentially adding another patina of legitimacy to the new Baratheon dynasty by jure uxoris. Tywin needed to prove his loyalty, yes, but considering without dragons, a female clamaint to the Iron Throne is hollow, would the girls provide better leverage alive?

Sparing Rhaenys would make sense – marry her to Renly down the line, strengthen your claim to the Iron Throne. 

Sparing Ellia is a good idea. The Martells are really really not going to be happy that Aegon is dead, or Lewyn Martell for that matter, but with Elia as a prisoner, they’re not going to make noise over it while she’s alive. Then again, if you believe Tywin, he didn’t want her dead. 

Is Cersei’s “Golden Bank of Lannisport” notion really a good idea? From the text is always assumed it was another silly, unattainable pipe dream like her thought about building a new castle across the river???

It’s an incredibly good idea. Casterly Rock has an enormous, enormous amount of gold that’s sitting in the vaults not doing anything or at most being used for the Lannister war machine and nonproductive political loans. If you turn it into the liquid reserves of a bank, through the magic of fractional reserve banking, you can create many, many times more money than is in the Rock while still retaining a fairly conservative reserve rate (i.e, what percent of your reserves aren’t lent out so that they’re on hand to pay depositors who want to access their money). 

The Lannisters lent 3 million gold to Robert Baratheon without blinking, paid off Jaehaerys II’s war debts without breaking a sweat. Their yearly income is at least a million a year, given how much they gave to Robert on a yearly basis. Forbes thinks that they have around 2.1 million gold in the Rock; I’ve seen estimates of up to 200 million gold. As a max figure, based on 6,000 years of earning a million a year (not considering any interest), they may have around 6 billion gold dragons in the vaults of the Rock. 

So let’s take an average of these estimates and say they have 2 billion gold saved up. To begin with, that 2 billion equates to 380% of Westeros’ GDP. If they lent it out at a relatively conservative 10% reserve rate, they’d generate 20 billion in deposits and 17 billion in loans. In other words, just by putting the money into circulation instead of sticking it under a big rock, the Westerosi economy would grow by almost 4,000%

Can’t you do a rebellion without overthrowing the dynasty? It seems like the obvious choice would be to get rid of Aerys and Rhaegar, who have violated the social contract and proven themselves unfit to rule, and put in a regency for young Aegon. To go to historical examples, this is more or less what the barons did when they overthrew Edward II, and that provided for a lot more stability than the dynastic struggles of the 15th century.

Overthrowing Edward II worked. But there’s lots of occasions where that just doesn’t work – Henry III/Edward I during the Second Baron’s War, Richard Duke of York as Regent and heir for Henry VI, Ivan the Terrible’s regents, etc. 

The basic problem of the scenario is that the future monarch has a very good reason to want the regent dead. 

I have a friend who likes to argue that it was a mistake to rebel against the Mad King because, as bad as he was, the instability and civil war that followed the change of dynasties was far worse. She thinks the lords should have just knuckled under, tried not to provoke him (no going up to his castle and screaming threats), and waited for him to die, saving their reform attempts for a rational monarch. I’m sort of wondering what you think of that logic?

I think that’s kind of crazy. Aerys represented a fundamental threat to the social contract and the war to remove him was a just one

Let’s explore what knuckling under means – it means a total suspension of basic due process. No nobleman in the country is safe from arbitrary arrest and execution, on the whims of a paranoid schizophrenic, and peasants who stick their heads up are going to get it even worse. 

Moreover, Aerys is not about to confine himself to attacking the nobility. He’s also busily turning King’s Landing into a giant incendiary device so that he can be reborn as a dragon. Yes, he only activates it because the city has fallen, but what happens if Aerys gets the sniffles, thinks he’s being poisoned, and turns to Plan Wildfire to “save” himself? 

So no, waiting for him to die is not a good idea.