In your quick analysis of the Sansa/Alayne sample chapter, you suggest that LF is plotting to use Chekov’s Grain as leverage against the Iron Throne. What if instead the Vale’s harvest becomes Sansa’s motive to eliminate LF? That grain would feed a lot of starving Northmen under siege from an invading army of Others. . . .

I think Sansa has a lot more proximate motives to eliminate LF. His role in the death of her entire family, for one. 

Doesn’t the picking clean (and the Tywin stockpiling supplies, for that matter) mostly happen well after the Battle of the Camps? If Robb marches on Harrenhal immediately, he traps Tywin within the walls, Tywin has no time to do most of his harrying of the land, and surely his supply situation would have to be better than Tywin’s.

It’s an ongoing process. When Tywin marches across the Riverlands, “they trotted past blackened fields and burned holdfasts, down to the Riverlands and the Green Fork of the Trident…Ser Gregor burnt out the Pipers and the Brackens,” and Tywin is already sending out “foraging parties.” That’s well before Tywin gives the order to burn the Riverlands from the “ from the Gods Eye to the Red Fork.” In the meantime, the Riverlords have been “burning their own crops to try and starve us,” as they did back in the Dance.

So no, marching on Harrenhal is not a miracle solution. If Robb wants to cut Tywin off from resupply from the Crownlands, he’s got to completely circumvallate the biggest castle in Westeros, which means stretching out his army to the point where Tywin could pull a Frederick the Great on him. Moreover, if Robb does this, the entire Riverlands – which he would be relying on for supply – is open to Ser Stafford Lannister. 

Moreover, Robb’s supply situation is automatically worse than Tywin, because he’d be trying to support twice as many men as Tywin is. 

“1. If Robb’s starving Tywin out, how exactly is he stopping himself from being starved? And Tywin’s had time to prepare stores, where Robb wouldn’t.” Well, Robb can do some foraging, and he can potentially bring in food from northwards (the area around Seagard and the Twins has been pretty much untouched by Lannister armies) and perhaps from the Riverrun area. I’m not sure why Robb’s in a worse position than Tywin, who only has whatever he’s stockpiled in Harrenhal.

1. Foraging from where? The area’s been picked clean.

2. Those are some really long supply lines for an army of almost 40,000 people. 

Isn’t the real issue for Tywin at Harrenhal not whether an assault would work, but whether Robb can starve Tywin out, and whether Stafford could successfully relieve Tywin? The size of Tywin’s force actually makes it easier to starve him out, because he clearly won’t be able to feed it if he’s trapped within the castle. And even if Robb can’t starve him out, just keeping Tywin in Harrenhal prevents him from relieving King’s Landing.

1. If Robb’s starving Tywin out, how exactly is he stopping himself from being starved? And Tywin’s had time to prepare stores, where Robb wouldn’t.

2. Stafford attacking Riverrun would badly divide Robb’s forces. 

A Hymn for Spring: Preorders Have Arrived!

A Hymn for Spring: Preorders Have Arrived!

Some news from Marc Kleinhenz:

Hymn Cover


No, this is no April Fool’s joke – at long last, Tower of the Hand: A Hymn for Spring is **currently up at Amazon** for pre-orders.

Our first ebook, A Flight of Sorrows, was an anthology jam-packed with insightful analysis of the Song of Ice and Fire series, but it only barely scratched the surface of the huge and complex world that George R.R. Martin has created.

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What do you think would have happened if Robb had agreed to march on Harrenhal with the full strength of the North & Riverlands right after the Battle of the Camps, as Lord Blackwood suggested? The combined Stark-Tully host outnumbered Tywin 2:1 but Tywin had Harrehal’s fortifications+ more heavy horse on his side(likely). Could Robb have besieged Harrenhal & starved Tywin out? Also, what if the Stark-Tully host made an all out attack on Casterly Rock, as Marq Piper adviced?

Assaults would have been extremely costly – castles offer extremely high defensive multipliers, and historically garrisons of a few hundred or even a few dozen men could easily hold off thousands of men. Moreover, while the combined force had a 2:1 advantage, the usual rule of thumb for battles in the open field is that the attacker usually should have a 3:1 advantage. 

Heavy horse is unlikely to be an issue. Firstly, you can’t really use cavalry in assaults unless you dismount them. Secondly, Tywin is highly unlikely to have more heavy cavalry: he had approximately 7,500 horse at the Battle of Green Fork, and Robb alone had 6,000 horse at the Whispering Woods. Even after the Riverlands forces are dispersed following the Battle of the Camps, Edmure pulls together 3,000 horse at the Battle of the Fords. So Robb would have had at least 9,000 to Tywin’s 7,500. 

The bigger issue would be supply – after Tywin’s initial rampage across the southern Riverlands, his reaving after the Green Fork, and the scorched earth tactics of the Riverlords, and camping his army for months on end, the area around the Godseye would have been stripped bare of food and other supplies. 

If they’d attacked Casterly Rock, Tywin would have marched west same as in OTL. If you mean Edmure wouldn’t be around to stop him crossing the Red Fork, then Tywin is too far away to make it back to King’s Landing, the capitol falls, now Tywin’s a rebel, and Tywin would have been facing an army twice his own size out on open ground. 

Were there any real-world analogues to the way the Starks invite some of the smallfolk into their feasts and care for them during the winter, or Margaery Tyrell’s “Woman of the People” characteristics, or are those kinds of things made up by GRRM to give us a more modern way of signifying who the less “evil” nobles are?

Yes there is. Given the emphasis on charity to the poor in traditional Christian teachings, nobility and royalty made a big show of helping the unfortunate – everything from giving leftovers and handmedowns to beggars at the gate to giving money to the church for hospitals and orphanages to giving alms on Maundy Thursday, to washing the feet of the poor in imitation of Christ. 

These kind of gestures were a core part of the medieval social contract – the quid pro quo for deference and obedience was at least a symbolic expression of noblesse oblige.