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So, if Tywin is beaten in the field like Robb planned, that’s the end of the war, right? Shouldn’t that mean Joffery would send every available Crownlands soldier to aid him? For that matter, shouldn’t he (or Tyrion) be drafting every man or boy able to bear arms in the city of 500,000? I suppose the real question is not, why is Tywin’s army not 60,000 men larger?

A couple of things:

1. The Crownlands are a bit of a muddle. Some of them – the islanders – are sworn to Dragonstone, so there’s 3,000 men right there who can’t be called on. Others, as I’ll discuss in the next Davos chapter, clearly side with Stannis despite not being sworn to Dragonstone. Still others are Targaryen loyalists who don’t give a damn for the Lannisters and Baratheons and who sit out the war. And I think some of them do get drafted to replace some of Tywin’s losses, otherwise there’s no way to explain how Tywin’s army stays at 20,000 throughout the war. 

2. Well, Cersei kind of already has. If you apply the 1% rule of premodern societies to the population of King’s Landing, you get 5,000 men that can be raised. And Cersei increases the Goldcloaks to 6,000 men, really scraping the barrel. It’s not clear that the government can support more than that. 

But 60,000 is out of the question. The whole Crownlands is around 15,000 men.

Golden Company essay got me thinking. Assuming at least some, if not most, of the members descended from exiled houses are legit, how do you think these guys are maintaining families/houses? Do they all intermarry with each others daughters/sisters? Who are these women they’re marrying that want to essentially be classy camp followers? I’m guessing some of the richer guys might maintain manses somewhere for wives and children? Any thoughts?

  • I think there probably is a degree of intermarriage to build the same kinds of alliances we see in Westeros, albeit more for political support within the council of officers.
  • Mix of exiled Westerosi nobility and Essosi elite. Remember, Golden Company is very rich and politically influential, it’s a good thing for elite of Tyrosh, Myr, Lys to have ties to the Golden Company – helps with lobbying Golden Company to take contract with your city, might help with peace negotiations or ransoms down the road, etc. 
  • I think the Golden Company is actually pretty rich in terms of property, given the Free Cities’ practice of giving warlords manses to keep them sweet. I would imagine that the officers probably have villas or manses in all three of the Free Cities, and the Company itself probably has enough property by each city for their camps. 

Guest Post at Tower of the Hand: The Blacks and Red Part IV, The Golden Company, Then and Now

madeinmyr:

II. The Secret Sovereignty of the Iron Bank

It seems Steven Atwell is quietly moving towards our view of the Iron Bank. Namely that it is a powerful and malevolent institution that wields a terrifying amount of power over the Narrow Sea’s financial system:

So I’m going to stake out a rather bold hypothesis here: I believe that the Golden Company is essentially to the Disputed Lands what the Iron Bank is to the Free Cities and Westeros, a secret sovereign pulling the strings behind the scenes, in this case to ensure a permanent state of war and balance of power in the Disputed Lands to keep Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh paying them their exorbitant fees. (The Blacks and Red Part IV)

Time will tell whether he’s riding this train of thought to its logical destination.

Powerful yes, malevolent, no. 

ikoke submitted:

Continuing with the numbers issue in the South, Tarly,Rowan & Loras salvaged 5000 from Renly’s 20000 horse at Storm’s End. So that likely represents the mounted strength of Horn Hill, Goldengrove & a few other Reacher houses. The Florents,Cranes,Varners, Fossoways, Mullendores, Willums & Meadowes switched to Stannis. Combined their mounted strength should amount to at least 5-6000. Of Mace’s 10000 reserve, around 3-4000 should be knights/squires. We know that 2 of the richest & most powerful houses-the Hightowers & their vassals(Beesburys, Costaynes) & the Redwynes had stayed away from Renly’s host.These houses should be able to field around 3-5000 cavalry at least. Add to it the houses Renly names as his supporters but never show up(Shermer, Dunn,Footley, Blackbar, etc.) and the ones he never named (Peakes, Vyrwells, Ball, Roxton, Leygood, Ambrose, Ashford etc.) , and we can account for another 5-7000 cavalry at least. So all in around 25-27000 Reacher horsemen accounted for.at least . Some other forces would have been left to guard the castles.
So if we assume that at least 5-6000 Reachers switched over to Stannis, that would mean that at most 9-10000 Stormlanders joined his cause at Storm’s End. Whatever infantry Caron, Errol, Morrigen, Penrose and others mobilised would have been left behind at Bitterbridge when Renly sped off to Storm’s End, meaning the Stormlander foot had no choice but to serve under Randyll Tarly when he returned and seized control at Bitterbridge. A good % of these men are probably in the Riverlands & KL even now. So that leaves around 10000 of Stormlander military strength unmobilized (assuming that 9-10000 SL horse was matched by at least 10-15000 SL foot in Renly’s force, and that the SLs can field 30-35000 men all in all).

Let’s work through this, with Anonymous’ correction re: the Stormlands taken into account.

If Renly had the full support of both the Reach and Stormlands, his army should have been 140,000 strong, with 38,000 cavalry. As it stands, Renly seems to have around 80,000 (with 10k at Highgarden, so 90,000 or 65% support) with 20,000 cavalry (which roughly fits the ratio) – although he’ll claim to have 120,000 with 20,000 cavalry (which is way below the ratio). 

Now, we know that Loras and Tarly grabbed 4,000 cavalry from Storm’s End, which includes House Tarly, House Rowan, and House Tyrell. Can’t forget this last part – the Tyrells brought a lot of manpower to Bitterbridge and Storm’s End, which is reflected by the ubiquity of their banners. 

I’m going to use a rough estimate that the Houses have an average of 2,000 soldiers each, with ~540 being cavalry. So the seven Reach Houses (Florents, Cranes, Varners, Fossoways, Mullendores, Willums, Meadows) who see service with Stannis should equal roughly 3,780 cavalry. We know that 13 Stormlander Houses (Morringens, Estermonts, Carons, Conningtons, Errols, Hastys, Bollings, Horpes, Peaseburys, Fells, Wyldes, Grandisons, and Wensingtons) see action with Stannis. That’s roughly 7,020 men. 

Together, that accounts for 10,800 of the 16,000 who join Stannis at Storm’s End. Now, there are a couple of possible explanations here: 

  1. Some of the Reacher Houses mentioned by Renly but who we never got verification of being present or having switched sides (Bulwer, Costayne, Hightower, Cuy, Blackbar, Shermer, Dunn, Footly) were actually present and switched sides. Most of these I’m pretty skeptical of, but I’ve actually changed my mind on the Cuys, especially after Loras killed Ser Emmon the Yellow, it might make sense that they flipped to Stannis. That would add another 4,320, although I’m thinking more like 540. 
  2. Some of the Stormlander Houses mentioned here but who don’t show up later with Stannis (Tarth, Penrose, Morrigen, Selmy) did fight with Stannis but just didn’t get mentioned. That would add another 2160 men.
  3. My estimates for House size might be off. Some of these houses are clearly bigger than 2,000: the Fossoways are actually two separate Houses and are clearly pretty numerous given Lothor Brune’s accomplishments at Blackwater Bay, the Carons as the leading Marcher House are probably pretty big (especially if Renly gave them a seat on the Rainbow Guard), ditto House Crane. So if they’re more like the Freys than the Florents, that might add another 1,620 men. 

That gets us pretty close, up to 15,000 men. 

So….if around 4,000 Reachermen joined Stannis, that suggests that there’s another 23,000 Reach cavalry around. 4,000 of them went with Loras and Randall, so that leaves us with 19,000 to account for. Using the same 27% rule, around 2,700 of them were with Mace, leaving 16,300 unaccounted for.

If we look at the Reach houses that are either mentioned by Renly and don’t seem to have been there (Bulwer, Costayne, Hightower, Blackbar, Shermer, Dunn, Footly, Caswell), or the significant houses that seem to have been left out (Vrywel, Redwyne, Appleton, Ashford, Chester, Serry, Grimm, and Hewett of the Shield Islands, Cordwayner, Graceford, Merryweather, Peake, Roxton), that gives us 11,340. 

So really there’s only around 5,000 unaccounted for, and House size could easily explain that. 

Between the free cities of Myr, Lys, and Tyrosh vs. the Slave cities, who do you think produces superior craftsman? I always though the free cities had the best slave-craftsmen, but it seems the slaver cities also train slaves in carious industries and make corresponding goods. So who’s better? How does it work?

Given what we see exported, I’m going to say the Free Cities, definitely. Also, most of the slaves exported from the Free Cities aren’t being trained as craftsmen – Astapor primarily exports Unsullied, Yunkai sex-slaves, and Meereen pit-fighters. 

Re: Stormlands military numbers, doesn’t the fact that Lord Borros raised 40,000 men for the Muddy Mess suggest the modern Stormlands can raise at least that much? Or were those not all Stormlanders (haven’t read P&Q)?

That’s a really good point. So, discounting Elio’s initial estimate, if the Stormlands can raise 40,000 men, then Renly’s force would be 140,000 if he had the full support of both regions. And 10-11,000 of those should be Stormlander cavalry. 

It just occurred to me that Arianne might be planning to give fAegon the Valyrian steel Crown of Aegon I. Daeron I was likely wearing it when he was killed. Doran could very well still have it. What do you think? Caveat: I’m only up to the Westerlands chapter of WOIAF.

The Crown of Aegon I was indeed lost in Dorne: 

“"Such was his desire to split from the past that he had a new crown made–a warlike crown with black iron points in a band of red gold, since Aegon the conqueror’s crown had been lost after Daeron I’s death in Dorne.“ (From the Maekar I section)