Just a backup in advance of the detumblring
HAH! I’m actually terrible with numbers, but I force myself to struggle through the math because I need to understand it.
For a baseline estimate, I would say that, given that a generation is around 30 years and there have been 300 years of Targaryen rule, you’re probably looking at a minimum of 100 Kingsguard. Probably a little more, since the work of the Kingsguard is more dangerous than most. So I would guess between 100-200.
Even still. Let’s say Walder Frey and his 4,000 men weren’t there, that’s still 16k from the Reach. Let’s say the North didn’t fully mobilize, that’s 18k. Let’s say half the Vale had to be left behind to hold it down due to loyalists, that’s 15k. That’s 49k total and that’s even before we get to Robert’s Stormlanders.
Ok, so I’m 2700 words into Davos I and it’s clearly going to be a doozy, so I thought I’d take a quick break and give you a rundown on Rogues, which itself is a prequel to “The Princess and the Queen.” For my thoughts on that piece, see here. Spoilers under the cut!
racefortheironthrone do you have any link or pdf of Rogues? I’ve been looking for it like forever and i couldn’t find it 😦
I read it in a bookstore, so sorry, no I don’t have a link.
I think he was hoping to use speed to force a fait accompli – capture Eddard, force a swap, call it even and count on Robert not to want the bother.
After the war started in earnest, he was hoping to knock out the Starks and Tullys fast enough to give him time to deal with Stannis and Renly.
It’s not their full strength – Eddard would have had to rush south like Robb, the Vale was badly divided and would have needed occupying forces, ditto the Riverlands, the Stormlanders were divided and took significant casualties – but you’re right that the numbers are low.
Between the four houses, you’re looking at a full military strength of 110,000 (35k for the North, 30k for the Vale, 20k for the Riverlands, and 25k for the Stormlands). Even accounting for division and casualties, 55k is more reasonable.
I think so, yes. Between Robb’s army, Edmure’s army, and Roose’s army, you’ve already got 27,000 men to Tywin’s ~20k. Add the 30,000 knights of the Vale, and Tywin’s not only outnumbered by more than two to one, but you’ve got enough men to successfully put Harrenhal under siege.
Indeed, depending on how early the Arryns mobilize, it’s possible Tywin gets trapped north of the Ruby Ford and never even makes it to Harrenhal.
Interesting question.
I don’t think a rebellion plays out anywhere near the same. In this scenario, the Starks and Tullys and Arryns aren’t going to rebel, so that leaves just the Baratheons and Martells and they don’t really have the manpower to make a go of it. Maybe if the Lannisters join them, but that’s unlikely to happen at the outset.
If Southron Ambitions is at all close to true, I see this as a case where the “loyalist” faction takes charge rather than a civil war (especially since Robert’s in the Eyrie when this happens, and also Rhaegar doesn’t really have anywhere to run in this scenario) – Aerys is declared infirm and put into confinement for health reasons, there’s a council of Regents, and a Great Council is summoned to deal with A. who’s on the Iron Throne, given that the king is mad and the Crown Prince technically is an outlaw, and B. what’s the succession going to look like if Rhaegar’s set aside Lyanna for Elia.
This could get very complicated – the Starks, Tullys, and Arryns are going to express in no uncertain terms that Aegon be chosen over his father as the new Crown Prince, the Martells will seek to defend the rights of Elia’s unborn child but probably would be unwilling to work with Rhaegar’s faction due to the whole abduction thing, the Baratheons would be definitely anti-Martell, as would the Tyrells, and the Lannisters and Greyjoys would be a real wildcard. You’d probably see a pro-Viserys faction develop as a third option between the Aegonites and the Martells.
I believe GRRM has discussed this and basically said Robert chose not to, and it was a sign of his lack of attention to the finer details. Especially with a new dynasty, having lots and lots of Princes and Princesses running around would have been a very good thing to show that the Baratheons were here to stay.
Canals – a Blackwater-to-Mander canal and a Blue Fork-to-Ironman’s Bay canal would be first priority. After that, probably a White Fork to Torrhen’s Square canal. Canals and/or irrigation linking the Scourge to the Yronwood river would probably also be a good idea.
Roads – extend the River Road to Maidenpool, build a Gold Road to River Road connection that connects Stony Sept and Riverrun, a White Harbor connection to the Kingsroad, the Westerlands could use a coast road that connects Banefort and Kayce to Lannisport, the Reach could use a ringroad that connects Old Oak, Goldengrove, and Bitterbridge, the Stormlands could use a road that connects Massey’s Hook to the Kingsroad, and an extension of the Kingsroad to the Boneway through the Rainwood connecting Rainy Town.
Depends on the season, I think. In the Winter, I think the snows would make it difficult for the dragons to stay in the air, or to burn down the Wolfswood, which would make the Targaryens rely on field armies who would be easier to defeat in the field and/or starve/freeze to death.
But in the Spring/Summer, I think the North is more vulnerable.
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