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I have been reading your CBC analysis and I have a question about what you call “Dornish Treatment.” I understand that Dorne can make its own laws and collect taxes with little interference, but why was this a good enough reason for them to swear fealty? What laws, besides inheritance, are truly different?

Excellent question. There’s a lot we don’t know about Dornish law, but we can look at Gaemon Palehair’s edicts as a bit of a guideline – poor relief, pensions for former soldiers, a ban on wife-beating. The WOAIF also suggests that the Dornish have different customs on bastardy and homosexuality as well. 

In terms of why that was good enough, I think you can find the answer in the sheer level of punishment Dorne absorbed. The First Dornish War burned every castle in Dorne but Sunspear, leaving the country “a blighted, burning ruin.” While we know a lot more about Dareon’s casualties than those of who he fought against, the combination of his crushing victories and Lord Tyrell’s reprisals against the civilian population suggests that this war was incredibly bloody. 

My interpretation of the whole 50,000 spears vs. 25,000 spears is that the various wars had an impact on Dorne’s male population similar to what WWI had on France, which would have an impact on Dorne’s fertility going forward. 

I think the Dornish agreed to the peace because the alternative would have bled their country dry. 

If I get this right, after Renly’s assassination, Randyll Tarly rides back to Bitterbridge and puts to death any foot there who were sworn to a house now aligned with Stannis. Considering that Renly had about 100K men at Bitterbridge, and brought 20,000 cavalry to Storm’s End, that implies that Randyll had a significant portion of the remaining 80,000 men to death. Isn’t that a worse massacre than anything else in the books?

This is something that happens almost completely off-page, but it’s really really unclear what exactly happens and I’ll be following up on this in Tyrion X of ACOK.

There’s a big bit of confusion in that Renly claims to have 80,000 men at Bitterbridge when Catelyn meets him there (60,000 foot and 20,000 cavalry), but in the next Catelyn chapter has him claiming to have 100,000 foot in addition to his 20,000 cavalry.

Then Randyll Tarly rides for Bitterbridge. The next time we see the Tyrell army after Blackwater, they have somewhere between 50-70,000 men, with most estimates coming out to 60,000. 

Now, given these wildly varying possibilities, it could be that almost no-one died at Bitterbridge – if Renly had 60,000 foot and Tarly grabbed the lot and just killed some officers. If Renly had 100,000 foot, then Tarly must have killed 40,000 men, which would be the largest single death total in any battle in ASOIAF world history. 

Even for a massacre, 40,000 is improbable, so let’s see if we can firm some things up. Given that we know Mace brings up his 10,000 from Highgarden, that would suggest that only 50,000 of the Tarly army at Blackwater came from Bitterbridge. To me, this suggests that Renly was full of shit, and had 80k rather than 100k men, 60k men were left at Bitterbridge, and Tarly had 10,000 men – mostly Florents, but also Fossoways, Cranes, etc. – killed. Which would put the massacre up there with Oxcross, but not way ahead of it.

However, this leaves some open questions: 

  • given that the Reach has 100,000 men on its own, and the Stormlands at least 25,000, if Renly only had 80-90,000 men tops, where are the remaining 35,000? 
  • How many of them were Stormlanders? Given that the Stormlords divided on whether to support Renly, I think only 12,500 men fought for Renly from the Stormlands, which would suggest that there’s another 12,500 who might fight for or against Aegon.  
  • If that estimate is right, then 77,500 men of the Reach fought with Renly, which would mean there’s another 22,5000 men in the Reach going toe-to-toe with Euron in addition to Garlan’s 30,000. (which makes Euron’s crusade absolutely insane – even with one hand tied behind it’s back, the Reach can field 50,000 men against him)
  • What’s going on with the cavalry? The Reach should have 27,000 cavalry by itself, and the Stormlands another 6,750. Now, even with only half of the latter backing Renly, that’s 30,0375 cavalry – but Renly only had 20,000? Why did 10,000 “knights of summer” agree to hang back with Mace? 

how do you think Tywin would’ve handled the problem with the Faith? (the debt, the sparrows, and Tommen’s blessing)

1. The debt he would have handled by not spending a bunch of money on the navy – he’d use the Redwynes to do that for free – or on the Goldcloaks. 

2. Tommen’s blessing he would have handled by not assassinating Tyrion’s High Septon. 

3. The Sparrows I think he would have dispersed with overwhelming force. 

Do you think you might be overestimating Ned’s practical power as Hand when it comes to the composition of the Small Council? Jon Arryen and Stannis both tried to get rid of Janos Slynt, but Littlefinger used his influence with Robert to block their efforts. “They all steal. The next one might be worse.”

Tyrion had Janos Slynt sent to the Wall. So yes, absolutely within his practical power if he’d just done it first instead of asking for permission, because Robert wouldn’t care enough to do anything about it afterward.

As far as Ned’s mistakes go, what about his general truancy? He had a seat on the small council for 14 years, as Warden of the North, that he never claimed. He helped make Robert a king, but showed no interest in following up and keeping an eye on how the kingdoms were being run–did he even keep correspondence with any of the River or Vale lords?–and so he’s completely floored by the state of Robert’s government as soon as he can’t hide from it anymore.

On reflection, I think I’m wrong about the Wardens being on the Small Council, and that the wiki I initially based that belief on was not correct. 

What is the worst mistake you think Ned made? I have seen people argue about warning Cersei to run, but I can’t see Ned still being Ned and being worried about dead innocent kids. Frankly the only thing I can fault him on was dilly dally for a week to get his affairs in order and not get his girls/dependents out of the city by nightfall. Horses, gold, and warm bodies could get his girls to Riverlands in a day or less. Ned could stay.

Overwhelmingly, Ned’s mistake was not using the power of his office – he could have dismissed Janos Slynt and replaced the office corps of the Goldcloaks with his own officers, issued a warrant to demand the testimony of Ser Hugh of the Vale, recruited his own military force, etc.