Eric Asks:

Without GRRM’s thumb on the scales, how would you see the War of the Five Kings and the impending crisis beyond the Wall playing out?

There’s a couple different different points at which GRRM’s thumb really changes things.

1. The fall and destruction of Winterfell completely destabilizes a North that had the capability to rally against the Ironborn and push them off their shores, which would have greatly improved Robb’s political standing and removed the need to return north. 
2. If Robb’s western strategy actually pulls off without a hitch, House Lannister is comprehensively destroyed. Stannis on the Iron Throne could now be negotiated with from a position of strength or resisted outright, as long as the Tyrells don’t bend the knee.
3. If Tywin’s ride to the rescue and/or the Tyrell switch doesn’t happen just right, Stannis takes King’s Landing, most of the Lannister royal family is dead, and Stannis is sitting on the Iron Throne. This doesn’t end the war, as Stannis will have 10-15,000 men and a lot of enemies.

The most likely scenario here is a division of Westeros between the Northern Alliance, Stannis’ eastern domain, and independent powers in the Reach, Dorne, the Vale, and the Iron Islands.

Beyond the Wall – Mace takes the Wall, runs headlong into the Boltons. While they’re fighting, the White Walkers cometh.