Quick question: how would double-entry bookkeeping change the economic landscape in Westeros?

So, before double-entry bookkeeping, what you basically had were lists of goods and sums of money you had, which is good for counting things, but not very good at telling you much about how your business is doing.

Double entry provides a lot more information: it shows the different kinds of things you have (cash on hand vs. goods vs. credits and debts) so that you can examine each category individually, it focuses your attention on building up equity (i.e capital) and allows you to compare your capital to your debts more easily so that you can have a clear impression of how financially secure you are (it also allows for you to see whether you’re in profit or not as opposed to just how much cash you have atm), it allows for much easier detection of error by checking whether the credits and debts add up and allows you to audit a final amount by checking it against the ledger entries, and it allows for comparisons from period-to-period so that you can see if you’re growing or shrinking and where (which makes it easier to invest more in areas of strength, etc.). 

Was rhaegar ever abused by aerys? Because i feel like this was not addressed and it is very clare from most descriptions of rhaegar’s personality (barring rob b’s) he is psychologically messed up (in some way)

Hard to say. I don’t think Aerys ever laid a hand on Rhaegar himself, but Rhaegar definitely would have seen his father horribly mutilating and killing people. The question is when that started – Rhaegar was 18 at Duskendale, so did it happen earlier?

“Video” Podcast of Game of Thrones, Season 1, Episode 9, “Baelor”

“Video” Podcast of Game of Thrones, Season 1, Episode 9, “Baelor”

AND YOU THOUGHT IT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN!

Completely stunning the oddsmakers, SEK and I (now both of us of Lawyers, Guns, and Money) have finally started podcasting again, and not only that, we’re going to be releasing one episode a day for the next three days. So this week, we’ll be burning off the last two episodes of Season 1 of HBO’s Game of Thrones, the two episodes that arguably launched the…

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The Economic Policy of Tywin Lannister

 – joannalannister:

This is everything I ever wanted, thank you racefortheironthrone!!

While the political shortcomings of this strategy are quite clear […] it’s interesting that they may well have been very beneficial for the economy of the Westerlands, given the tremendous importance of access capital for economic development, especially in an unusually industrial economy like that of the Westerlands. 

Could you expand on what economic benefits you mean here regarding Tytos’s loose credit policies? For example, do you see it as the Lannisport goldsmiths’ guilds taking this opportunity to expand and set up more shops, or ? Or would the “private wars” being waged in the (Wild) Westerlands at this time cancel out most of these economic benefits, because. idk, maybe the merchants needed the gold to replace the damages to their business resulting from the West’s lawlessness at this time?

(Would there be competing guilds in the same industry in the same city, or would all the goldsmiths in a city be in the same guild?)

Where TWOIAF discusses merchants from Kayce, do you think that city is another important port for the Westerlands, albeit one that is much smaller than Lannisport or even Gulltown?

Do you think that Aerys’s “grand schemes” could have been an attempt to win the favor of other Lords Paramount? For example, more territory for Rickard Stark with a new wall, money to Jon Arryn for the Vale’s marble, more arable land for the Unnamed Princess of Dorne? Unfortunately Aerys was slightly insane even then, and his plans wouldn’t have worked, but could Aerys’s public works projects have been said to be politically motivated like Tywin’s were? (Interesting if Aerys was trying to form his own alliances while other alliances were possibly being formed against him, if Southron Ambitions were true.) 

I know there’s very little to work with, but do you have any theories on why Tywin enacted his Pure Food Act in the first place? You said it only affects small businesses and has no effect on the nobility, but those seem to be more about why Tywin wouldn’t oppose the law going through, rather than motivations to pass the law in the first place, because Tywin still doesn’t really give a damn about the smallfolk. Is it just to limit the power of the merchant class, to make sure they aren’t rising above their station in this time of general economic prosperity? 

Glad I could help! 

So, the benefits of Tytos policies: access to credit is one of the key determinants of economic growth and economic development, especially when it comes to capital goods. So in Lannisport, it’s merchants buying/building ships or ordering cargos, it’s artisans buying shops and tools, it’s forges and furnaces and anvils and vaults. (And no, guilds are unitary – part of the whole point is that you can distribute labor supply so that everyone’s got work and agree on prices so that everyone turns a profit, so if there are competing guilds, everyone’s undercutting everyone else and there’s a glut of labor supply and wages drop the floor) 

On the other hand, the lack of law and order means these new investments in capital goods are really vulnerable. So, in the best of all worlds, you want a Casterly Rock that invests its wealth in the local economy like Tytos – indeed, one of the examples of Cersei’s squandered potential is her idea for a Golden Bank – and a Casterly Rock that keeps the peace like Tywin.

Kayce is a town, not a city. So smaller, no charter, less economically developed. Especially after the way it got roughly handled by the Ironborn over the centuries. I’m guessing that it doesn’t really compete in the same industries as Lannisport – it’s a lot further away from gold mines, for example. My guess is that Kayce focuses more on fishing, ship-building, and trying to ruthlessly undercut Lannisport’s prices on harbor fees, port fees, warehouse fees, and the like. 

Aerys trying to curry favor – maybe? I read his primary motivations as wanting adulation and to be seen as a “great” monarch due to an underlying inferiority complex. Hence, he’s not just trying to win support by handing out political favors, he’s trying to impress people by overpromising: not just more men for the Night’s Watch, but a whole new Wall! Not just money for irrigation projects but a tunnel through the Red Mountains! And these grandiose projects are often tied to wars meant to make him seem important in light of his father – his father fought a war on the Stepstones, he’ll conquer the Stepstones! His father borrowed heavily from the Braavosi for the War, he’ll put the Braavosi in their place by going to war with them too!

As for pure food and drug – I don’t know. It sort of stands out from the rest. It limits small shopkeepers and merchants, sure. It’s something for the lower-down smallfolk in place of Aegon’s (probably more political) reforms; it might even be a form of “bread and circuses” that doesn’t cost anything. It could also be about his focus on efficiency and good order – I imagine Tywin was very very strict about minimum standards of gold purity in Lannisport goldsmithing, for example, and very strict about not adulterating the currency once Hand. I’d need to know more about other forms of economic regulation that he put in place.

What are your thoughts on Theon’s arc in ADWD (and ASOIAF in general)? I left ACOK hating Theon and hoping he got the worst torture imaginable. Then when I realized he was Reek, I began rooting for him (talk about GRRM turning the mirror back on fans desires!) to the point that his redemption arc was the highlight of ADWD to me.

lukanieto:

racefortheironthrone:

I agree. I think the Theon arc in ADWD was the best part of the book, and I’m really nervous about it being translated into the show.

Theon is D&D’s favorite character. Do you have a positive outlook about anything at all next season?

I’m sure that they like Theon. My main worry is certain earlier structural decisions and how they might interact with Theon’s story. For example:

Are they going to do “Arya” or not? (Please let them not be doing Sansa instead) Because Theon and the audience’s empathy for and care for “Arya” is absolutely necessary for his character arc.

Likewise, are they going to do Mance and his spear wives? Or Manderly or Lady Dustin? Also important for Theon’s arc.

X-Posted from Tumblr: Tywin’s Economic Policy

X-Posted from Tumblr: Tywin’s Economic Policy

As someone who’s very very interested in the intersection between ASOIAF and public policy, I’m kind of amazed I haven’t gotten to this topic before, so many thanks to Joanna Lannister for reminding me.

I’ve been interested in Tywin’s tenure as Hand for a long time, and I was quite pleased to see that the WOIAF gave us a lot more detail, which has allowed me to revise and extend my thinking.

(m…

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What are your thoughts on Theon’s arc in ADWD (and ASOIAF in general)? I left ACOK hating Theon and hoping he got the worst torture imaginable. Then when I realized he was Reek, I began rooting for him (talk about GRRM turning the mirror back on fans desires!) to the point that his redemption arc was the highlight of ADWD to me.

I agree. I think the Theon arc in ADWD was the best part of the book, and I’m really nervous about it being translated into the show.

The Economic Policy of Tywin Lannister

As someone who’s very very interested in the intersection between ASOIAF and public policy, I’m kind of amazed I haven’t gotten to this topic before, so many thanks to Joanna Lannister for reminding me.

I’ve been interested in Tywin’s tenure as Hand for a long time, and I was quite pleased to see that the WOIAF gave us a lot more detail, which has allowed me to revise and extend my thinking. 

The Origins of Tywin’s Economic Policy

Tywin Lannister’s views of economic policy are obviously greatly shaped by his understanding of his father’s failure. Tytos was known for basically having a loose financial policy: “some borrowed heavily from Casterly Rock, then failed to repay the loans. When it was seen that Lord Tytos was willing to extend such debts, even forgive them, common merchants from Lannisport and Kayce began to beg for loans as well.” (WOIAF, p. 201) While the political shortcomings of this strategy are quite clear – especially in the case of Lady Ellyn Tarbeck née Reyne – it’s interesting that they may well have been very beneficial for the economy of the Westerlands, given the tremendous importance of access capital for economic development, especially in an unusually industrial economy like that of the Westerlands. 

Nevertheless, Tywin seems to have taken a strong lesson from his youth – being in debt is bad, being a creditor is only good if people pay up on time, having lots of gold on hand is best. In other words, he became a classic mercantilist when it came to monetary and financial policy, focused on building up a large monetary reserve as best for the health of the state and the economy (although as we’ll see, Tywin’s economic policies in other areas were not mercantilist in any way shape or form). Tyrion’s quote that “the gold of Casterly Rock…is dug from the ground,” (ASOS, p. 271) speaks to Tywin’s conception of money as a physical object to be safeguarded. And Tywin’s insistence on repayment in full, even when the debt is owed by his double-grandson, and the emergence of the Lannisters’ alternate motto, speaks to his obsession about never going back to the days of Lord Tytos.

Also, note that Tywin’s conception of debt is entirely political – loans are for gaining political support from lords, not for funding commercial ventures. Thus, Tywin’s career in economic policy begins with setting himself up as a debt collector:

Ser Tywin began by demanding repayment of all the gold Lord Tytos had lent out. Those who could not pay were required to send hostages to Casterly Rock. Five hundred knights, blooded and seasoned veterans of the Stepstones, were formed into a new company under the command of Ser Tywin’s brother Ser Kevan, and charged with ridding the west of robber knights and outlaws. (WOIAF, p. 202)

A credit crunch of this kind is hardly good for the economy of Lannisport, but may have had some salutatory effects on the Westerlands as a whole. Firstly, it improved House Lannister’s balance sheet, which meant that the Lords Paramount of the Westerlands would not go into debt or need to tax heavily – fulfilling Machiavelli’s maxim that:

“a Prince of a liberal disposition will consume his whole substance in things of this sort, and, after all, be obliged, if he would maintain his reputation for liberality, to burden his subjects with extraordinary taxes, and to resort to confiscations and all the other shifts whereby money is raised. But in this way he becomes hateful to his subjects, and growing impoverished is held in little esteem by any…through his parsimony his revenues are sufficient; that he is able to defend himself against any who make war on him; that he can engage in enterprises against others without burdening his subjects; and thus exercise liberality towards all from whom he does not take, whose number is infinite, while he is miserly in respect of those only to whom he does not give, whose number is few.” (Il Principe, Chapter XVI)

Secondly, by accompanying it with a marked improvement in law and order, Tywin allowed for an improvement in the volume of trade, as merchants and farmers and travelers would no longer fear robbery. 

Tywin as Hand

Tywin brought these conservative tendencies with him to King’s Landing when he was appointed Hand in 262 AC. From the beginning, Aerys II:

“was full of grand schemes…he announced his intent to conquer the Stepstones…he hatched a plan to build a new Wall a hundred leagues north of the existing one…he spoke of building a "white city” entirely of marble on the south bank of the Blackwater Rush…after a dispute with the Iron Bank of Braavos regarding certain moneys borrowed by his father [no doubt to pay for the War of Ninepenny Kings], he announced he would build the largest war fleet in the world…during a visit to Sunspear, he told the Princess of Dorne that he would “make the Dornish deserts bloom” by digging a great underground canal beneath the mountains…“ (WOIAF, p. 113-114)

Tywin’s policy here was one of restraint, no doubt solemnly promising to study each new proposal and then shelving it until the king had moved on to the next fancy, preserving the royal finances. At the same time, Tywin was willing to use the gold of Casterly Rock to put the King of Westeros in his debt, "settl[ing] the crown’s dispute with the Braavosi…by repaying the monies lent to Jaehaerys II with Gold from Casterly Rock.” We can see the lessons of his childhood here – debts must be repaid to prevent war, either with Braavos or with himself, but gold should be used to build political capital.

Most importantly, we learn that Tywin pursued a policy of promoting commerce through (relative) free trade, as he “reduced tariffs and taxes on shipping going in and out of the cities of King’s Landing, Lannisport, and Oldtown, winning the support of many wealthy merchants.” (WOIAF, p. 114) This shows an impressive level of sophistication – lowering statutory rates in order to generate higher levels of traffic and raise aggregate income, promoting commerce on the principle that economic growth would rebound to the benefit of the state. At the same time, there’s a political angle here – Tywin is benefiting the crown, his own kingdom, and broadening his coalition by helping out the Hightowers, but all of this would come at the expense of other ports like Gulltown, White Harbor, Plankytown, and Duskendale. And note that Tywin moves to benefit the merchant classes only after he’s placated the nobility by repealing Aegon V’s reforms.

Notably, Tywin’s pro-trade agenda became a point of contention with King Aerys once their relationship soured, as 

“the king doubled the port fees at King’s Landing and Oldtown, and tripled them for Lannisport and the realm’s other ports and harbors. When a delegation of small lords and rich merchants came before the Iron Throne to complain, however, Aerys blamed the Hand…whereupon His Grace restored port fees and tariffs to their previous levels, earning much acclaim for himself and leaving Tywin Lannister the opprobrium.” (WOIAF, p. 116)

Clearly Aerys preferred a bigger slice of a smaller pie than a smaller slice of a bigger pie. On the other hand, there’s some method to the madness – Aerys hurts commerce overall but raises royal revenue, but still preserves an advantage for the capitol (and Oldtown – possibly at Mace Tyrell’s bequest?) and tries to push Lannisport into comparative disadvantage. And once again, the economic serves the political – the point here is to damage Tywin’s standing among the merchant classes more than to enact permanent policy. 

In terms of public works, Tywin and Aerys differed less than one might think. While Tywin clearly looked askance at Aerys’ thoughtless ambition – wars on the Stepstones or with Braavos or with Volantis are expensive, a new Wall would involve both huge construction expenditures and a war with the wildlings for land that’s not arable, and a canal through the mountains would be prohibitively expensive in an era before dynamite, jackhammers, and steam shovels – he  wasn’t opposed to public works per se. We’re told that he “built new roads and repaired old ones, held many splendid tournaments about the realm to the delight of knights and commons alike,” (WOIAF, p. 114) but I’m sure that Tywin made damn sure that expenditures did not exceed budgetary estimates through any means necessary, and that overall expenditure remained under control. 

I would like to know more about Tywin’s Pure Food Act, in which he “sternly punished bakers found guilty of adding sawdust to their bread and butchers selling horsemeat as beef,” because of the interesting contrast to his stern opposition to the regulatory intervention in politics by Aegon V. Again, I think politics trumped economics – Tywin’s regulations affected small merchants and artisans, not the privileges of the nobility, whereas Aegon V meddled with the “rights and liberties” of the highborn.

A final and most important area of economic policy was the question of charters. Lord Denys Darklyn wanted a “charter for Duskendale that would give it more autonomy from the crown…and with it, lower port fees and tariffs to allow Duskendale once more to vie for trade with King’s Landing,” and Tywin as Hand “firmly rejected his proposals, for fear that it might set a dangerous precedent.” (WOIAF, p. 118) Now there’s something of an irony in this – the slump in Duskendale’s trade was probably influenced by Tywin’s trade policies that favored the royal capitol (which would improve royal revenues without raising taxes) and his own city of Lannisport. A charter for Duskendale would lower royal revenue; if it became a trend, it would mean dangerous competition for Lannisport. 

At the same time, I think there’s also a strong political edge here as well – charters mean more than tariffs and port fees, they mean political power for the smallfolk, especially the merchant classes, as city charters often come with the right to form municipal governments, trade guilds, and city militias. And this is political power at the expense of the nobility, who lose the absolute authority they normally have over their territory in favor of a bounded, constitutional authority. It’s not an accident that city charters are common in Essos, where republicanism holds sway. I would not be surprised in the slightest if one of the reforms of Aegon V done away with were city charters for Lord Harroway’s Town, Maidenpool, Rainy Town, Plankytown, and other would-be city-states. 

Tywin liked trade as much as the next man, but he was not about to allow a bunch of common merchants – the kinds of men his father had unwisely associated with – get above their station, let alone aspire to political power, like the “cheesemongers” of Essos. Then again, maybe it was all an excuse to replace King Aerys with King Rhaegar…