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How could Aegon V have dealt the Blackfyres such a crushing defeat? Even after factoring in the numerical superiority of the loyalists(though I doubt that the distant domains of the North,Vale or Dorne managed to mobilise fast enough to get to Wendwater in time), a battle where the Blackfyre dead choke a river whereas the loyalists lost <100 men seem improbable given the Golden Company's level of training and discipline, and Bittersteel's leadership.

It does seem rather implausible. Wendwater Bridge suggests that they got caught crossing a bridge, which is a nightmare scenario for an army, but less than 100 men is even worse than the “Muddy Mess.”

We know that House Redwyne has 200 warships. So Paxtor Redwyne must have around 20000-40000 men to crew these ships, which is way more than what any non Great House can field. Besides that would put House Hightower’s strength at around 100000(thrice as many men etc.) However in WOIAF we learn that the Reach has a post of Lord Admiral. So could it be that Lord Redwyne is simply the current Lord Admiral of the Reach and that his ships are crewed by men from all over the Reach, and not just Arbor?

Well, keep in mind that it’s easier to raise oarsmen than trained warriors. Given that the Redwynes have a huge proprietary trading fleet, I think what happens is that the Redwynes have a “standing” naval force that earns its keep in commerce and providing security, and which then converts over to fully military when the banners are called. 

In terms of the “thrice as many,” I think that refers to fighting men. I estimate that the Hightowers have around 18,000 fighting men (although part of that is coming from their vassal houses), which would mean that House Redwyne has a maximum of 6,000 marines. 

Follow up question on Robert keeping Aegon alive and prisoner (assuming he was captured during the sack of KL) – was there historical precedent for this? When you say Aegon is a prisoner, are we talking an “honored guest” (ala Catelyn at Riverrun after she releases Jaime), or something more like Theon at Dreadfort?

There is, it’s just not a precedent that tends to end well – see Henry III and Simon de Montfort, Edward II and his wife as regent for his son, Richard II and Henry Bolingbrook, Henry VI and everyone, Edward IV and the Kingmaker, the Princes in the Tower and Richard III, and so on and so forth.

Black_Goat here. I’ve read and re-read your Double Swap theory re: Aegon, and while I find it somewhat persuasive, I’m still troubled by Varys’s motivations. He comes to Aerys after the DoD and within the span of five years has decided to completely change the political landscape of Westeros by replacing, reshaping, and then returning to power, the Targaryen family? Even as the ultimate utilitarian, *why* does he care so much about Westeros?

daysanddistance:

racefortheironthrone:

lukanieto:

racefortheironthrone:

Because I think he ultimately does care for the good of the realm. He wants to build a kingdom where there isn’t poverty and exploitation, like the world he grew up in. 

That’s essentially what he tells Tyrion in Season 5, for what it’s worth (I know the books and the show are different beasts by now, but still.) According to the recent EW issue, Varys says he wants “peace, prosperity. A land where the powerful do not prey on the powerless.” And then he goes on to say the lines about a ruler loved by millions, heard in the trailer. I, for one, believe him.

I do as well. Varys isn’t motivated by money – he got all of that he needed in Pentos. We know he’s got motivations other than power – otherwise, why try to save Gendry? 

And then I go back to his childhood. Sold as a slave, horrifically mutilated, homeless, physically abused, survival prostitution – Varys has known what it is to be poor and exploited more than most, and I think he wants a systemic solution. 

Yeah, but how is one good ruler a “systematic” solution? Sounds like a lot of work for a temporary band-aid. It’s either kind of a shit plan, or there’s got to be more to the story.

This gets back to the oceans of blood thing. Varys’ plan, as I understand it, is to create enough chaos that the nobility of Westeros – who have blocked all attempts at social reform since Aegon V – will be so exhausted and terrified that they will accept an absolutist king who will completely remake Westerosi society for all time, as long as it means peace. (See Henry VII’s dismantling of bastard feudalism in favor of a more centralized and more parliamentary monarchy) And thus you need an enlightened despot who’ll use that power benevolently.

And of course it’s not going to work. Enlightened despotism never works. But a lot of smart people, from Voltaire on down, fell for it.