Just a backup in advance of the detumblring
Well, you need to keep in mind that immigration was much more difficult in the premodern era generally – you’re travelling either on foot or on ship, navigation is far more difficult, you have to bring all your food and supplies with you, there’s very high risks of you being attacked by brigands or pirates or slavers, etc.
So unless you’re a nomadic people to begin with, you don’t really get people migrating between regions that much, and very few return trips.
This is something I’m still trying to work out. And it’s a little difficult to pin down, because some of his actions can be explained in other ways. For example, his throwing the Battle of the Green Fork could simply be explained as trying to increase his regional power by ensuring that his neighbors (the Karstarks, Hornwoods, Manderlys, and Cerwyns) take as many casualties as possible while he guards his own manpower. Notably, you don’t see Bolton men taking part in the fighting at the Green Fork, and indeed, almost his entire force makes it safely back to the North.
In terms of the Frey alliance, between the Battle of the Green Fork and the capture of Harrenhal, Roose spent a lot of time camped out near the Twins with his army under minimal supervision. So somewhere between Tyrion VIII of AGOT and Catelyn V of ACOK (when we learn that Roose has taken the Ruby Ford and has married Walda Frey), an alliance is made between the two Houses.
Certainly, I think we can say that Roose had made his alliance with Tywin Lannister around the time that he gives the orders for the disastrous attack on Duskendale in Arya X of ACOK, because Duskendale in retrospect is clearly a “shaping operation” for the Red Wedding, eliminating the Stark loyalists in his own ranks so that Roose and Walder’s forces outnumber Robb’s forces at the Twins, and because Duskendale only becomes a disaster because Roose sends word to Tywin telling him where and when to ambush the Northern infantry.
This also makes sense, because it’s only when Roose has taken Harrenhal that he has access to his own ravenry without oversight from anyone else. Remember, up until the Battle of the Fords, Robb Stark has 400 men stationed at the Twins – with those men there, sending ravens to Tywin Lannister would be incredibly risky.
Pretty much – depending on who you are.
Jon Arryn lives, Eddard isn’t made Hand, Bran isn’t crippled, Sansa stays the hell away from Joffrey, Cersei is exposed by Jon Arryn and Stannis, there might be a brief war against the Lannisters, Robert marries Margaery (who’ll have her work cut out for her), etc.
In more structural matters, I’m of the opinion that the royal bankruptcy doesn’t happen because it wasn’t real to begin with. Sure, Robert will run up some debts, but without Littlefinger embezzling state funds (including, I believe, most of the money loaned to the Iron Throne) and committing massive accounting fraud, those debts should remain manageable, especially with the deep pockets of the Tyrells to finance them.
400 vs. 400 is still an even fight and a lot easier than 0 vs. 400, especially since 400 can open doors for more.
Remember, Edmure pulled the Northern forces out well after Robb marched west; he only did so right before the Battle of the Fords, which was well after the Battle of Oxcross.
You have argued that Daeron pushed his deal with Dorne too hard and too fast, of whic I am in agreement with. If you were his counselor, what political advice would you give him regarding the deal?
As I’ve argued, Daeron’s main problem was that he negotiated a treaty which created the impression that the Dornish had gotten the better end of the deal, indeed, the marriage of Daenerys sort of implies that the Dornish won the war.
As with any sort of treaty, there are winners and losers, and Daeron’s mistake is that, by then filling his court with Dornishmen, he left the losers (the Marcher lords, the Reach, Aegon IV’s loyalists) from the treaty out in the cold and feeling alienated from the monarchy.
If I was his adviser, I would have urged him to try to sweeten the deal for the Westerosi, possibly by extending the same benefits that the Dornish got to the various Lords Paramount and some of the same benefits to the more important Lesser Houses. I would have also urged him to spread around royal patronage so that those who had lost out from the treaty and the end of the Dornish Wars would have been part of the administration – as the saying goes, better someone in the tent pissing out then outside the tent pissing in.
Moreover, given the issue of martial character, I would also have looked for some way to release the pent-up aggression of the nobility in a more controlled direction, to give them something to do besides feel resentful and bored. So look for minor wars – fight pirates on the Stepstones, help the North put down the Skagosi rebellion, send troops against Raymun Redbeard, sponsor mercenary companies to go fight in the Free CIties – and spend a chunk of the peace dividend on tourneys, so that the knights are distracted and happy.
It happened a lot historically – Genghis Khan was infamous for it, for example – but I don’t think Robert would have gone for it. To begin with, the Martells are the smallest of the Great Houses who weren’t part of the Northern Alliance – so why would Robert try to get them onside, rather than the Tyrells or the Lannisters?
I’m guessing they were captured at different times, and sent in one batch as a single display of Nymeria’s final victory.
Well, I think this is a case of “"any Coburg prince.” I.E, I don’t think you necessarily need a Robb Stark – Robett or Galbart Glover, the Greatjon, really any competent commander could have done a much better job.
As I write about in my recaps of Tyrion VII and Tyrion VIII of AGOT, I think Roose Bolton deliberately botched an eminently winnable battle. To begin with, deciding to go on the offensive was odd, given the Northmen were outnumbered and lacking in cavalry. His night march is especially weird, because A. he knows that Robb wants Tywin’s army as far away from the Trident as possible, and B. despite achieving tactical surprise, Roose gives the game away by drawing up in battle formation rather than attacking Tywin’s army immediately.
But even more egregiously, given that Roose has an army of almost entirely foot and a strong defensive position on the high ground that stood perpendicular to the Green Fork itself, his decision to send slow-moving spear-and-shield infantry to attack Tywin’s cavalry vanguard is absolutely insane. As in the Battle of the Hastings, if you put a shield wall on the heights of a long line of hills, knightly cavalry cannot break through – the uphill climb makes it all but impossible to generate the speed you need for a proper charge, horses founder and fall – wrecking formations. Likewise, the heights make an infantry assault even more difficult – it’s incredibly difficult to stay in formation and your shield up while you’re climbing, massed pike formations draw devastating plunging arrow volleys that gain momentum and range when you’re firing down-slope, and the Lannister bowmen’s shot is going to fall short.
What’s bizarre about the Battle of the Green Fork is that Roose Bolton deliberately does what Harold Godwinson absolutely sought to avoid throughout the whole battle, without the feigned retreat, the faked death of William, and the actual death of Harold that was necessary to get the Saxon housecarls to break discipline.
So with a competent and/or loyal commander in charge, the Northmen take the heights, form a strong shield wall to screen their archers, and hold their position, forcing the Lannisters to make repeated up-hill attacks that are bloodily and repeatedly repulsed. Once the word gets around that the Young Wolf isn’t present on the battlefield, and the Lannisters are forced to withdraw, the Northmen pursue relentlessly down the Kingsroad rather than retreating back to the Twins, increasing the Lannisters’ OTL losses from the forced-march retreat.
If at all possible, try to maintain contact with Tywin’s army and slow them down as much as possible, creating the possibility that Robb’s combined Northmen and Riverlander cavalry force can beat Tywin’s mixed force to the Trident, trapping Tywin’s army between the Green Fork and the Ruby Ford and the mountains, potentially knocking the Lannisters out of the war in one fell swoop. But short of that, make sure to seize the strong defensive position at the crossroads and take control of the Ruby Ford, which Roose doesn’t do until Arya VII of ACOK. This creates a strong defensive line anchored by the Red Fork of the Trident, ensuring that the reaving never spreads “north across the Trident almost to the Twins.” It also gives Robb a protected seaport at Saltpans which allows communication, reinforcements, and resupply from White Harbor.
There’s no clear answer, but I think there’s a few things we can determine.
First, the times. Westeros before was awash in countless wars between the petty kings, likely at least one per generation, so the populations of each kingdom were lower. Less wars mean more people surviving, which in turn means a flourishing in population. So in the fifteen generations or so of Targaryen rule, Westeros has seen a population increase.
Second, the establishment of a massive capital city, King’s Landing. Cities saw rapid population growth, and the addition of such a large one would lead to a rise in population as activity bustled in that region.
And of course, there’s the elephant in the room, GRRM is notoriously bad with numbers.
Thanks for the question, Roddy.
SomethingLikeALawyer, Hand of the King
I’d add a couple other things:
1. In an era with Seven Kingdoms eternally at war, you’ve got to keep enough troops at your borders to guard against being attacked while you’re in the field (see the Dornish attacking the Stormlands while they’re under threat from the Ironborn and the Targs) so more of the forces of the various kingdoms are tied up in garrisons rather than available for field armies.
2. During the Dance, post-Conquest armies probably adapted to dragons by splitting up so that you don’t suffer a Field of Fire. Hence why the armies of the Dance were so much smaller than in other conflicts.
“Controlled” is difficult to say, because the Andals seemed to have occupied territory that was also occupied by the Rhoynar, the Valyrians, the Ibbenese, etc. Also, the Andals weren’t a settled people, but migrated.
But the territory from the hills of Andalos to the Axe seems roughly the width of the Riverlands.
RFTIT Tumblr Backup 