Was just rereading The Mystery Knight and wanted to say that I totally agree with your analysis from “The Blacks and the Reds” about how Peake and Daemon II’s plan was insane and foolhardy. That said, even if the dragon’s egg never hatches if an invasion by Bittersteel and the Golden Company had coincided with uprisings in the Reach and Riverlands would Daemon II have had an even chance? Does it all depend on how quickly Bloodraven can muster support and whether King’s Landing holds?

Thanks!

The biggest problem, to me is that by starting the conflict divided, you enable Bloodraven to defeat you in detail before you can consolidate your forces. Rebellions in the Reach and the Riverlands and then Bittersteel invading might have worked if the Iron Throne reacts slowly and defensively, giving you the space to organize and coordinate. 

And with another Hand in charge, that might even have happened. But Bloodraven is far too aggressive for this scheme to work – he’s going to respond with overwhelming force and surprising speed (thanks in no small part to his superior intelligence network), and will crush any rebellion brutally enough so that it encouragez les autres. 

If I was Bittersteel and had my prepared candidate in hand, I would have risked sailing around the coast of Dorne to land in the west. It puts a continent’s width between King’s Landing and me, so that I’ve got time to seize territory and gather together my supporters before royal armies can arrive. Add to that the fact that Dorne, the Stormlands, the Crownlands, and the Vale are all loyalists, whereas the Reach and the Westerlands and putatively the Iron Islands contain the bulk of former rebels. 

If Renly had been willing to play a longer game, wouldn’t he have most likely become king eventually anyways? If Stannis takes the throne Renly is the second-most important man in the kingdom as the king’s closest-living male relative. If Renly claims the crown after Stannis dies it’s hard to imagine a significant faction defending Shireen’s female claim (especially post-DOFTD), and I find it hard to believe Stannis would have ever had another child due to his infrequent relations with Selyse.

Yes, which makes his rebellion even less sensible. Had Renly not been so impatient and over-optimistic, to say nothing of arrogant, he could have been the power behind the throne and the heir apparent. Instead, he’s a corpse. 

What do you think about Jon’s decision to get the loan from the Iron Bank in order to buy food and supplies for the Wall? On the one hand, it is absolutely critical given the Watch’s already-depleted stores, the imminent long and brutal winter, and the fact that they won’t be getting food or supplies from the rest of the realm in any significant quantities anytime soon. On the other hand, Jon admits to himself that this will put the Wall into perpetual debt that can never be repaid.

Better to be alive and in debt than dead and solvent. 

Anon Ask:

While I don’t believe in the Great Tyrell Conspiracy there’s something that gives me pause. Given Cersei’s letter to Jaime asking for help we know Dragonstone falls before Riverrun, yet when Miranda gives Sansa the news during the descent she mentions the Tully yielding but Dragonstone still holding for Stannis. Am I missing something?

Most likely, it’s a case of incomplete information – that news has reached the Vale about Riverrun but not yet about Dragonstone. 

(Tumblr glitched so I am resending in case it did not the first time). If a second son was given Harrenhal, would it be feasible for him to tear it down and build a more practical castle?

Well, yeah, it’s feasible. A fair bit of “Dark Age” construction was done by re-purposing dressed stone – which is an expensive and difficult to manufacture and transport materiel – from Roman infrastructure. 

But whether that’s enough to dodge the curse, I don’t know.  

So in your formulation who’s the 999th Lord Commander? Marsh or Mallister, perhaps? Cotter Pyke is going to die at Hardhome, Janos Slynt is dead, Alliser Thorne is missing and probably dead, so who’s left as a viable candidate? I’d imagine that this LC would be the one when the Wall falls. Accepting that Jon is (at least temporarily) dead, is there even any chance of an actual election being held before all-out war ensues between loyalists, Marsh and co., the queen’s men, and the free folk?

Definitely one of the assassins, Marsh most like. I doubt there will be a formal election, more of an acclamation. 

Why do you assume someone like Stannis could defeat someone like Roose Bolton? Or that Roose will die? He seems totally that character who stays alive from start to end. I think there is so much to Roose that we didn’t see yet. And why would Stannis accept to be at the Wall? He is obsessed with the Throne. Let’s assume the throne is destroyed, wouldn’t Stannis try to build a new one? I can’t imagine him abandoning his goal and be satisfied as a Black Brother. For what reasons will he be there?

Because Roose Bolton is not the Big Bad Guy – the White Walkers are – he’s a roadbump who’s standing in the way of the protagonists being able to confront the Big Bad Guy. And he needs to be taken out so that the Starks can reunite in Winterfell where the story began. 

And I think Stannis would accept being at the Wall because he did something inexcusable for reasons that while good at the time turned out to be false.

Assuming that Stannis dies in the books (apparently the showrunners confirmed he was definitely killed by Brienne?), will it be at the hands of the Others or something else? And either way, will it be at Winterfell? I’ve read your analysis of how Stannis will almost certainly win the Battle of Ice but, as with the Battle of the Blackwater, anything can happen, right? Obviously we’re dealing with limited and rewritten material from the show to extrapolate but many things seems possible.

I think Stannis becomes the 1000th commander of the Night’s Watch and survives the series. 

Steven Xue: Where does the Citadel get its funding from?

I find the Citadel and the Order of the Maesters to be a very unique anomaly in a medieval world. I’m sure an academic institution like it can and did exist during the medieval period but it must have cost a fortune to run. Besides the fact that the complex of campuses, liberties and laborites would need to be maintained by a very large staff, there is also the cost for funding the research projects and other ventures of their high ranking faculty (eg Marwyn’s expedition). The Maesters also have to operate certain departments that affect the whole of Westeros. There is the raven postal service, the publishing and updating of records and histories and the calendar plus predicting when winter is coming. But the biggest kicker has to be the training and housing of hundreds of students over a course of several years if not decades in many difficult fields of study which has to cost a pretty penny.

I know that Oldtown and maybe the Crown do give them funding in taxes but even today illustrious colleges that are financed by governments still charge a lot in tuition fees, yet it doesn’t seem like the Citadel actually does that seeing how it’s a meritocracy and even the poorest folk can enroll. I assume like the Night’s Watch the sons of noblemen do come with large donations from their families, but then we have people from less well-off backgrounds whom I doubt would have family or dependables that can continually finance their education. And given how much study is required to graduate, I assume the students must have all their living expenses and amenities taken care of by the Citadel. I really doubt any potential Maester would have the time to take a part time job while intensely hitting the books and having to do a lot of practical lab work on a daily basis. Plus this is set in a time before student loans became a thing.

So yeah do you think the Citadel is and can be sustained solely by the taxpayers of Westeros or would they have to look to other sources of income to keep the lights on?

A couple things to keep in mind: firstly, you’re dealing with a medieval university not a modern university. The expectations for what kind of services and amenities are provided, what kinds of buildings are built, etc. are completely different. (No IT department, no sports program, no pension system, no medical centers, no business spinoffs, no counselling services, etc.) So no, the Citadel probably does not pay for the housing and feeding of students – students would be expected to shift for themselves (as in medieval universities prior to the foundation of the colleges) and poorer students probably have to work on the side to pay their bills. Likewise, there aren’t any printing presses in Westeros, so the Citadel doesn’t publish as an institution – it’s got its library, which it maintains by copying manuscripts, but the writing of books is the private concern of the individual maesters. Finally, the sophistication of “research” is not that advanced – we’re not talking modern laboratories, we’re talking about whatever spare cramped rooms are available with whatever equipment the individual maester has acquired on their own. 

Finally, you also need to take into account that the Citadel charges for its services. If a lord wants a maester so they can be part of the ravenry network, they have to pay for that. If a rich merchant needs medical care, they have to pay for that. And so on. So there’s income coming in from virtually every noble house of Webberesque importance or higher throughout the continent.