Considering Olenna’s view on Renly’s claim, mainly that he thought he looked good in a crown and people agreed, do you think that explains Mace’s support. Maybe Renly used some of his charisma on Mace and convinced him that Stannis would back the Florents over them, may hold a grudge, or simply that it’d be easier to make him King over Mister Grump & Grudge?

I think Mace is simply greedy for royal status and susceptible to persuasion from his favorite son.

In relation to the number of the rebels at Trident it could be at Hoster conviced the remaining Lord Paramounts to mantain part of the army at Riverrun to protect the western riverlands of a Lannister attack while their marched to King’s Landing?

It could be, but I doubt it. Hoster was still in the field after the Battle of the Bells, his bannermen were present at the Trident, and it would be very strange if Northmen and Valemen were left behind rather than Riverlords.

Regardless of dynastic implications of legitimacy, are you inclined to believe that Daeron II’s true father was Aemon instead of Aegon IV? It seems like the sort of thing that Aegon wished were true to explain away his hatred of his marriage to Naerys, his conflicts with Daeron, and his resentment of his Dornish marriage.

Well, I certainly think there was an element of emotional infidelity, regardless of whether there was sexual infidelity. Clearly Naerys and Aemon were deeply in love, but it could have either been a case of courtly love or something more.

And for those who say that Aemon was too good a knight to break his vows, I would say only LANCELOT.

What do you think show Littlefinger’s plan is? Knock out the Boltons, install Sansa as Lady of the North, marry her, profit?

I think he’s aiming a bit higher. Tie the North to the Vale to the Riverlands, take the Iron Throne in the name of King Harry Arryn, become Hand of the King, cuckold Harry Arryn and get Sansa with his child, kill King Harry, rule as Lord Protector of Westeros in the name of his secret son.

EDIT:

Whoops. Just saw “show” in there. Yeah, probably.

Do the noble families in Westeros have to be so absurdly long-lived for the story to work? Couldn’t “Stark” just be a name adopted by whoever’s ruling the North at the moment, and Ned’s actual family only go back a couple of hundred years?

For most of them, no. Although note that most of the Great Houses, to take an example for ease of discussion, are of more recent vintage: the Martells as they exist today date back to Nymeria’s Conquest, the Tyrells only became prominent under Mern VI toward the end of the Gardener dynasty, the Tullys only became prominent with Aegon’s Conquest, the Baratheons are only 300 years old, the Arryns date back only to the Andal invasion, and the Lannisters are Andal transplants who married into the name when the original First Men line ended with Gerold III. And the Greyjoys claim to have ancient kings in their blood, but only recently began ruling the Iron Islands.

But for the Starks, yes. Because they have to be of the blood of Bran the Builder, to be wargs and greenseers descended from the daughters of the Warg King and the Marsh King, because of what Winterfell is for.

What happens if the Tragedy at Summerhall results in the wholesale destruction of House Targaryen (Aegon V, his former heir Duncan the Small, his current heir Jaehaerys, the heir-in-waiting Aerys, and the newborn Rhaegar, along with any wives, sisters, and cousins in attendance)? TWOIAF hints very strongly that the conflagration would have been even more devastating but for the valor of Dunk. Do the lords call a Great Council to find an acceptable candidate or does the realm simply fracture?

Yeah, definitely a Great Council. I think the fear of total instability would probably cause people to hold back from separatism initially – especially since, with no monarch, no fresh grievances.

However, what happens next is completely up in the air and might well fracture the realm. If the Martells and Baratheons clash over which of them has the closest links to House Targaryen, if there’s not a clear consensus candidate or if the debate drags on too long, if Maelys invades with the Three Daughters behind him, you easily could have the realm fracture.

Re: alternate plans for Daemon II, what about pulling a “Stannis at the Wall” and landing on the Iron Islands? In OTL Bittersteel made common cause with the Ironborn at least once, but opposing Dagon would’ve made more useful friends in Winterfell, Casterley Rock and Seagard, I think. Good strategy, or too big a risk?

That doesn’t seem like a good idea to me – as with Balon, giving people what they want before you offer terms is a good way not to get what you want.

And at the end of the day, all you’ve got is some islands. Much better to land in the Reach.

Let’s say the White Walkers don’t exist and Stannis defeats the Boltons but he doesn’t have the strength to project his power southwards. How long can Stannis rule as King of the Iron Throne in the North? When he dies would the Northmen recognize Shireen as queen, crown Rickon/Bran as King in the North, or bend the knee to Dany?

I think the key factor here is whether he’s got Rickon and Bran. If Stannis is seen as the restorer of the Starks, he’s got a lot more credit than he would otherwise. If not, he’s got 1,500 men in a country with 17,000 men under arms who are going to evict him eventually.

Long-term, I think the North is going to be very, very hesitant to ever rejoin the Seven Kingdoms, at least not on the original terms. If Dany survives the Second Battle for the Dawn with dragons, they might bend the knee, but that’s as far as it goes.

Why didn’t Stannis’s defeat of the wildlings gain him more popular support in the North?

Well, it did get him popular support – 4,000 soldiers out of 17,000 Northern fighting men remaining joined his side. When you consider that Roose Bolton only had 1,650 men who weren’t Boltons or Freys join his cause, Stannis is winning in a landslide of those who’ve picked a side.

And he’s likely to win the support of most of the remaining 11,350, as a good chunk of those are Manderly men waiting for Rickon to pledge themselves to his cause.

As far as the sensibility of Renly’s rebellion goes, might it not make more sense to view it as essentially a Tyrell operation, with Renly as mostly a figurehead? For the Tyrells, it does make sense – they dislike both Stannis and the Lannisters, and for good reason. Renly is the only option that gives them power.

But they would have had power if Renly had waited – unless Stannis has a son, Renly’s the heir apparent and future King, and Margaery would be his future Queen.