A lot of the insane fan theories are based off of R+L=J being “too obvious”. Do you feel its only seen that way because of the long wait and internet culture and not from being obvious in the text?

Absolutely it’s due to the long wait plus the hivemind.

Obviousness in the text is another issue, because GRRM doesn’t do TWISTS out of nowhere – that would in fact be bad writing – but rather carefully seeds the text with hints, but does so in a way that you still don’t make the right conclusion. The Red Wedding being a great example; the RW has a million hints (some of them very blatant) scattered throughout ACOK and the first half of ASOS, but no one sees it coming the first time.