The maps in The World of Ice and Fire have little symbols for export industries – marble in the Vale, olives in Dorn, and so on. Sometimes these aren’t mentioned in the text, so do you think they’re consistent with the original books?

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Sort of? 

It’s a bit selective and kind of screwy – lumber is not the North’s only export, cattle aren’t only found in the Riverlands (and honestly the only big herds we hear about are in the Westerlands so…shrug), iron and tin are not found only in the Iron Islands, the gold mines of the Westerlands aren’t only in the north (Silverhill should have some mines near it, ffs), there’s no symbol for wine on the bloody Arbor, I don’t see how the Stormlands has much of an economy on amber, and given how often Dornish red is mentioned, you’d think they’d put it on the maps…

To raise a personal bone of contention: Vale map is completely screwed up, putting the Mountains of the Moon east rather than west of the Eyrie, basically smack-dab on top of the Vale which is a huge agricultural region. And there’s a bit of weirdness with the Vale exporting marble but for some reason the Eyrie is built from Tarth marble.

But I don’t see anything that’s blatantly contradicted by the books. 

Huh, I went over the asoiaf wiki, and to aggravate you even further about the Ironborne timeline House Mallistar apparently only conquered the Cape of Eagles during Torgen the latecomers reign, that suggests the Ironborne still had colonies in the Riverlands throughout House Justmans reign and could be the perfect source for conflict you wondered about. I’m getting the weird sense of deja vu of the back and forth between the Ironborn and the North now…

On the Justman-Hoare conundrum: Is one possible solution simply Qhored the Cruel being a brief resurgence of Ironborn supremacy such that that after his death no Ironborn leader had the capabilities to arrest their decline as he had?

Regarding the ironborn timeline issues, I remember a couple people on Reddit put forward a theory a few months ago that the Andal Conquest happened over the course of around two thousand years (noting the 1-200 years between the (final) conquest of the Vale and the reign of Tristifer IV), and thus didn’t come to the Iron Islands until well over a thousand years after they came to the riverlands. Does this theory hold water for you?

Going to consolidate a couple questions from different people on the whole Ironborn timeline thing: 

W/R/T the Mallisters, since Torgon Latecomer was one of the earliest of the Greyirons, since he was elected at a kingsmoot, and Torgon’s son Urragon came before Urron Redhand, who A. lived five thousand years before the War of Five Kings and B. whose line ruled for a thousand years before the Andals arrived in the Iron Islands, I don’t think Mallister’s conquest of the Cape happened during the reign of the Justmans but significantly before. (For one thing, if Qhored the Cruel was a Hoare, that conflicts with the Greyirons ruling for a thousand years.)

That Qhored solution wouldn’t work, because Qhored is listed as a driftwood king and the height of Ironborn power BEFORE the Greyirons abolished the kingsmoot and the Hoares replaced them and ruled as Iron Kings. I think the better fix is to say that either Aeron and WOIAF were wrong about Harrag and Qhored Hoare being driftwood kings – rather, if Harrag is a contemporary of Theon Stark, and Qhored of House Justman, they were in fact Hoare kings of the “black line” who came about after the Andal invasion (although that creates other problems relating to thematic arcs) – or that the bit about Qhored extinguishing the Justmans is simply not accurate.

As to the delayed timeline, that solves some problems but not others. Honestly, I think the Ironborn chapter needs to be rewritten from the ground-up with an eye to consistency and an eye to a much simpler succession of dynasties. 

WOIAF

Your thoughts on the WOIAF? On one hand it fleshes out certain characters and time periods and has some great art. On the other hand it sometimes seems contradictory and sloppy and certain areas (ie. 3rd Blackfyre Rebellion) have been completely skipped, leading me to the feeling that GRRM’s rough notes from the upcoming “Fire and Blood” were sold to us with a new title slapped on it.

Well, I won’t say that there isn’t editing that needed to be done. 

But the wealth of knowledge that is included is, as you can see from the podcasts I did with @unspoiledpodcast and my own analyses, incredibly rich, allowing us to understand far more about the historical development development of Westeros and Essos than we did before.

That being said, there are some omissions – we don’t know a lot about the North post-Andal invasions through to Torrhen Stark outside of their war with the Arryns, we know almost nothing about the Riverlands pre-Andal invasion, we know almost nothing about the Vale between the Dance and Robert’s Rebellion, there’s some significant gaps in the history of the Iron Islands from the Blackfyre Rebellion to the present, we don’t know what happened between the reigns of Garth the Painter and Mern IX in the Reach, other than Lyonel’s Rebellion we don’t know much about the Stormlands between the Dance and Robert’s Rebellion, and we don’t know much about Dornish history outside of its various foreign wars. 

My hope is that a lot of those blank spaces will get filled in through Dunk & Egg, Fire and Blood, and the like. 

The Economic Policy of Tywin Lannister

As someone who’s very very interested in the intersection between ASOIAF and public policy, I’m kind of amazed I haven’t gotten to this topic before, so many thanks to Joanna Lannister for reminding me.

I’ve been interested in Tywin’s tenure as Hand for a long time, and I was quite pleased to see that the WOIAF gave us a lot more detail, which has allowed me to revise and extend my thinking. 

The Origins of Tywin’s Economic Policy

Tywin Lannister’s views of economic policy are obviously greatly shaped by his understanding of his father’s failure. Tytos was known for basically having a loose financial policy: “some borrowed heavily from Casterly Rock, then failed to repay the loans. When it was seen that Lord Tytos was willing to extend such debts, even forgive them, common merchants from Lannisport and Kayce began to beg for loans as well.” (WOIAF, p. 201) While the political shortcomings of this strategy are quite clear – especially in the case of Lady Ellyn Tarbeck née Reyne – it’s interesting that they may well have been very beneficial for the economy of the Westerlands, given the tremendous importance of access capital for economic development, especially in an unusually industrial economy like that of the Westerlands. 

Nevertheless, Tywin seems to have taken a strong lesson from his youth – being in debt is bad, being a creditor is only good if people pay up on time, having lots of gold on hand is best. In other words, he became a classic mercantilist when it came to monetary and financial policy, focused on building up a large monetary reserve as best for the health of the state and the economy (although as we’ll see, Tywin’s economic policies in other areas were not mercantilist in any way shape or form). Tyrion’s quote that “the gold of Casterly Rock…is dug from the ground,” (ASOS, p. 271) speaks to Tywin’s conception of money as a physical object to be safeguarded. And Tywin’s insistence on repayment in full, even when the debt is owed by his double-grandson, and the emergence of the Lannisters’ alternate motto, speaks to his obsession about never going back to the days of Lord Tytos.

Also, note that Tywin’s conception of debt is entirely political – loans are for gaining political support from lords, not for funding commercial ventures. Thus, Tywin’s career in economic policy begins with setting himself up as a debt collector:

Ser Tywin began by demanding repayment of all the gold Lord Tytos had lent out. Those who could not pay were required to send hostages to Casterly Rock. Five hundred knights, blooded and seasoned veterans of the Stepstones, were formed into a new company under the command of Ser Tywin’s brother Ser Kevan, and charged with ridding the west of robber knights and outlaws. (WOIAF, p. 202)

A credit crunch of this kind is hardly good for the economy of Lannisport, but may have had some salutatory effects on the Westerlands as a whole. Firstly, it improved House Lannister’s balance sheet, which meant that the Lords Paramount of the Westerlands would not go into debt or need to tax heavily – fulfilling Machiavelli’s maxim that:

“a Prince of a liberal disposition will consume his whole substance in things of this sort, and, after all, be obliged, if he would maintain his reputation for liberality, to burden his subjects with extraordinary taxes, and to resort to confiscations and all the other shifts whereby money is raised. But in this way he becomes hateful to his subjects, and growing impoverished is held in little esteem by any…through his parsimony his revenues are sufficient; that he is able to defend himself against any who make war on him; that he can engage in enterprises against others without burdening his subjects; and thus exercise liberality towards all from whom he does not take, whose number is infinite, while he is miserly in respect of those only to whom he does not give, whose number is few.” (Il Principe, Chapter XVI)

Secondly, by accompanying it with a marked improvement in law and order, Tywin allowed for an improvement in the volume of trade, as merchants and farmers and travelers would no longer fear robbery. 

Tywin as Hand

Tywin brought these conservative tendencies with him to King’s Landing when he was appointed Hand in 262 AC. From the beginning, Aerys II:

“was full of grand schemes…he announced his intent to conquer the Stepstones…he hatched a plan to build a new Wall a hundred leagues north of the existing one…he spoke of building a "white city” entirely of marble on the south bank of the Blackwater Rush…after a dispute with the Iron Bank of Braavos regarding certain moneys borrowed by his father [no doubt to pay for the War of Ninepenny Kings], he announced he would build the largest war fleet in the world…during a visit to Sunspear, he told the Princess of Dorne that he would “make the Dornish deserts bloom” by digging a great underground canal beneath the mountains…“ (WOIAF, p. 113-114)

Tywin’s policy here was one of restraint, no doubt solemnly promising to study each new proposal and then shelving it until the king had moved on to the next fancy, preserving the royal finances. At the same time, Tywin was willing to use the gold of Casterly Rock to put the King of Westeros in his debt, "settl[ing] the crown’s dispute with the Braavosi…by repaying the monies lent to Jaehaerys II with Gold from Casterly Rock.” We can see the lessons of his childhood here – debts must be repaid to prevent war, either with Braavos or with himself, but gold should be used to build political capital.

Most importantly, we learn that Tywin pursued a policy of promoting commerce through (relative) free trade, as he “reduced tariffs and taxes on shipping going in and out of the cities of King’s Landing, Lannisport, and Oldtown, winning the support of many wealthy merchants.” (WOIAF, p. 114) This shows an impressive level of sophistication – lowering statutory rates in order to generate higher levels of traffic and raise aggregate income, promoting commerce on the principle that economic growth would rebound to the benefit of the state. At the same time, there’s a political angle here – Tywin is benefiting the crown, his own kingdom, and broadening his coalition by helping out the Hightowers, but all of this would come at the expense of other ports like Gulltown, White Harbor, Plankytown, and Duskendale. And note that Tywin moves to benefit the merchant classes only after he’s placated the nobility by repealing Aegon V’s reforms.

Notably, Tywin’s pro-trade agenda became a point of contention with King Aerys once their relationship soured, as 

“the king doubled the port fees at King’s Landing and Oldtown, and tripled them for Lannisport and the realm’s other ports and harbors. When a delegation of small lords and rich merchants came before the Iron Throne to complain, however, Aerys blamed the Hand…whereupon His Grace restored port fees and tariffs to their previous levels, earning much acclaim for himself and leaving Tywin Lannister the opprobrium.” (WOIAF, p. 116)

Clearly Aerys preferred a bigger slice of a smaller pie than a smaller slice of a bigger pie. On the other hand, there’s some method to the madness – Aerys hurts commerce overall but raises royal revenue, but still preserves an advantage for the capitol (and Oldtown – possibly at Mace Tyrell’s bequest?) and tries to push Lannisport into comparative disadvantage. And once again, the economic serves the political – the point here is to damage Tywin’s standing among the merchant classes more than to enact permanent policy. 

In terms of public works, Tywin and Aerys differed less than one might think. While Tywin clearly looked askance at Aerys’ thoughtless ambition – wars on the Stepstones or with Braavos or with Volantis are expensive, a new Wall would involve both huge construction expenditures and a war with the wildlings for land that’s not arable, and a canal through the mountains would be prohibitively expensive in an era before dynamite, jackhammers, and steam shovels – he  wasn’t opposed to public works per se. We’re told that he “built new roads and repaired old ones, held many splendid tournaments about the realm to the delight of knights and commons alike,” (WOIAF, p. 114) but I’m sure that Tywin made damn sure that expenditures did not exceed budgetary estimates through any means necessary, and that overall expenditure remained under control. 

I would like to know more about Tywin’s Pure Food Act, in which he “sternly punished bakers found guilty of adding sawdust to their bread and butchers selling horsemeat as beef,” because of the interesting contrast to his stern opposition to the regulatory intervention in politics by Aegon V. Again, I think politics trumped economics – Tywin’s regulations affected small merchants and artisans, not the privileges of the nobility, whereas Aegon V meddled with the “rights and liberties” of the highborn.

A final and most important area of economic policy was the question of charters. Lord Denys Darklyn wanted a “charter for Duskendale that would give it more autonomy from the crown…and with it, lower port fees and tariffs to allow Duskendale once more to vie for trade with King’s Landing,” and Tywin as Hand “firmly rejected his proposals, for fear that it might set a dangerous precedent.” (WOIAF, p. 118) Now there’s something of an irony in this – the slump in Duskendale’s trade was probably influenced by Tywin’s trade policies that favored the royal capitol (which would improve royal revenues without raising taxes) and his own city of Lannisport. A charter for Duskendale would lower royal revenue; if it became a trend, it would mean dangerous competition for Lannisport. 

At the same time, I think there’s also a strong political edge here as well – charters mean more than tariffs and port fees, they mean political power for the smallfolk, especially the merchant classes, as city charters often come with the right to form municipal governments, trade guilds, and city militias. And this is political power at the expense of the nobility, who lose the absolute authority they normally have over their territory in favor of a bounded, constitutional authority. It’s not an accident that city charters are common in Essos, where republicanism holds sway. I would not be surprised in the slightest if one of the reforms of Aegon V done away with were city charters for Lord Harroway’s Town, Maidenpool, Rainy Town, Plankytown, and other would-be city-states. 

Tywin liked trade as much as the next man, but he was not about to allow a bunch of common merchants – the kinds of men his father had unwisely associated with – get above their station, let alone aspire to political power, like the “cheesemongers” of Essos. Then again, maybe it was all an excuse to replace King Aerys with King Rhaegar…