I think you’re correct that, if not for the Hornwood Crisis, the North probably could have rallied and defeated the Ironborn on land. That said, how would the North deal with the superior mobility the Ironborn have due to their longships when they have negligible naval power of their own?

Good question!

I think the answer is to look at where and how the North has defeated the Ironborn on land:

It was too late for that now, however. Theon had no choice but to lead Asha to Ned Stark’s solar. There, before the ashes of a dead fire, he blurted, “Dagmer’s lost the fight at Torrhen’s Square—”
“The old castellan broke his shield wall, yes,” Asha said calmly. “What did you expect? This Ser Rodrik knows the land intimately, as the Cleftjaw does not, and many of the northmen were mounted. The ironborn lack the discipline to stand a charge of armored horse. Dagmer lives, be grateful for that much. He’s leading the survivors back toward the Stony Shore.”

The sea was closer, only five leagues north, but Asha could not see it. Too many hills stood in the way. And trees, so many trees. The wolfswood, the northmen named the forest. Most nights you could hear the wolves, calling to each other through the dark. An ocean of leaves. Would it were an ocean of water.
Deepwood might be closer to the sea than Winterfell, but it was still too far for her taste.

If it were me, I would take the strand and put our longships to the torch before attacking Deepwood…

“My queen,” said Tristifer, “here we have the walls, but if we reach the sea and find that the wolves have taken our ships or driven them away …”
“… we die,“

Something flew from the brush to land with a soft thump in their midst, bumping and bouncing. It was round and dark and wet, with long hair that whipped about it as it rolled. When it came to rest amongst the roots of an oak, Grimtongue said, "Rolfe the Dwarf’s not so tall as he once was.” Half her men were on their feet by then, reaching for shields and spears and axes. They lit no torches either, Asha had time enough to think, and they know these woods better than we ever could. Then the trees erupted all around them, and the northmen poured in howling. Wolves, she thought, they howl like bloody wolves. The war cry of the north. Her ironborn screamed back at them, and the fight began.

And we had other help, unexpected but most welcome, from a daughter of Bear Island. Alysane Mormont, whose men name her the She-Bear, hid fighters inside a gaggle of fishing sloops and took the ironmen unawares where they lay off the strand. Greyjoy’s longships are burned or taken, her crews slain or surrendered…

The Ryswells and the Dustins had surprised the ironmen on the Fever River and put their longships to the torch….

Harren died at Moat Cailin. One of the bog devils shot him with a poisoned arrow…

In Moat Cailin he had taken to wearing mail day and night. Sore shoulders and an aching back were easier to bear than bloody bowels. The poisoned arrows of the bog devils need only scratch a man, and a few hours later he would be squirting and screaming as his life ran down his legs in gouts of red and brown.

Behind him were the camps, crowded with Dreadfort men and those the Ryswells had brought from the Rills, with the Barrowton host between them. South of Moat Cailin, another army was coming up the causeway, an army of Boltons and Freys marching beneath the banners of the Dreadfort. East of the road lay a bleak and barren shore and a cold salt sea, to the west the swamps and bogs of the Neck, infested with serpents, lizard lions, and bog devils with their poisoned arrows.

While the Ironborn are stronger at sea, the North is stronger on land, and the problem for the Ironborn is that the North is nothing but land. The Ironborn don’t have the numbers to occupy the North, and their soldiers don’t have the training or equipment needed to fight the greenlander way.

If it I was giving strategic advice, I would tell the Northmen to surrender the coasts after carrying off everything edible and burning the rest, retreat into the interior, let the Ironborn spread themselves thin by trying to occupy the North.

Then once the Ironborn are over-extended and as far from the sea as can be arranged, ambush their patrols and attack any force on the march, besiege every castle and starve them out, burn their ships and cut them off from the sea.

Re: Gregor & Tarly trapping the northmen, I’m getting maybe Tarly isn’t quite a military genius, but that seems like obvious tactics. Which do you think is more likely the cause? Gregor charging into the retreat path Tarly would have left out of bloodlust (or Tywin’s vindictive orders), or Tarly being affected by Robert’s successful retreat, maybe taking the lesson that you can’t count on an ally to finish a defeated foe, and not want Glover & Tallheart to rally elsewhere? Or some other factor?

Well, it’s not such obvious tactics, because outside of some of the best premodern armies ever (the Byzantines, the Mongols), people usually went for the complete encirclement. But there are other things that could have happened:

Gregor charging in recklessly is quite in character – his wing of the battle takes the heaviest casualties in the Battle of the Green Fork, he loses half his men at the Battle of the Fords, etc.
It could be that Robett Glover is good enough of a commander that he reacted well enough to a bad situation to make the Lannisters pay dearly for their victory.
Or something else.

a question about the westerlands army numbers. i know the common sensus seems to be around 50-55000 men in regards to how many the westerlands can raise. this is based on how many fought in the war of the five kings. but wasnt a large portion of tywins army composed of mercenaries in addition to his levies?

Not really. The only mercenaries we see serving Tywin are the Bloody Mummers, who only number a hundred altogether, and that Tyroshi band who abandoned Jaime’s army at the Camps and promptly vanished.

I have some theories about why, but there’s no evidence on this.

Hey, im currently trying my hand at an alternate history riverlands. my question is, in regards to roads, militarily, would a massive road network work for, or against the riverlands? on one hand, you get a massive boost in trade and you get the ability to have your army traveling at much faster speed through your own territory. but at the same time, you also make it much easier for enemies to invade by simply taking the road. does the cons outweight the pros in regards to Riverland Roads?

Well, keep in mind that the rivers somewhat act against the roads, because you need to cross the rivers at a ford or bridge, and that provides a natural funnel-point that defenders can use against you, as we’ve seen with the Battle of the Fords.

I would say that there are mechanisms for moderating the potential threat from a road network: first, use a riverrine navy to ensure that you have the better interior lines, second, build castles at strategic points along the road network to slow the enemy’s progress and whittle down their numbers through multiple sieges, third, build a lot of swing bridges on crossing points so that you can maximize your own flexibility vis-a-vis travel on road vs. travel on water and potentially cut off your enemy by denying them a crossing.

Why couldnt the lannisters raise a new army during the dance like Tywin tried to do with stefford lannister?

Good question!

And ultimately this is why I have a problem with the army sizes during the Dance, which in turn are part of my overall problem with the Dance as military history. Where we have numbers to tell, the armies of the Dance are pretty small by the standards of later Westerosi wars:

Battle of Rook’s Rest: >800 greens, 100 blacks.
Battle of the Gullet: ~100 ships on both sides.
The Fishfeed: At least 2000 greens, at least 3,100 blacks.
The Butcher’s Ball: 3,600 greens, ~7,000 blacks.
First Tumbleton: >9,000 greens, ~7,000 blacks.
Second Tumbleton: <= 9,000 greens, 4,000 blacks.

While one could argue that, post-Aegon’s Conquest, the Westerosi had shifted to a model of having multiple smaller armies rather than one big host to avoid losing everything to one dragon, this creates another problem.

We know from later wars that the various regions of Westeros can field much larger armies in the several tens of thousands, so if that is the case, the various regions of Westeros should have had more armies in the field at one time, and should been able to raise new armies and be ready to keep fighting.

Moreover, these numbers create new problems for historical consistency: if only 2,000 or so Westerlanders marched east with Jason Lannister, then the Westerlands couldn’t have been “thinly defended,” and so Dalton Greyjoy’s reaving should have been met by 43,000 Westermen ready to defend their homes against the 15,000 Ironborn. But since we know the Westerlands were “thinly defended,” then the casualties at the Red Fork and the Fishfeed should have been larger by at least an order of magnitude.

Re: medieval war length (different anon): Weren’t wars like the Wars of the Roses and the Hundred Years’ War sort of off-again on-again affairs with a decade or two of peace between each conflict flaring up? So with Aegon and Dany getting involved in the Wot5K couldn’t some future historians label the whole 283-300 period one long ‘War of the Stag’ or whatever?

That’s true, but the lengths of the conficts within were still longer than most GRRMatical wars and the peaces were often quite briefer than a decade.

With the Wars of the Roses, you have 1455-1458 (depending on whether you count Nevillle/Percy fighting as part of the whole, which you should), then 1459-1462, then 1464-5, then 1469-1471, then a gap until 1483, then 1485. So that’s 4 years, 4 years, 2 years, 3 years, 1 year, and 1 year respectively, so the average is much higher than in Westeros.

With the Hundred Years War (taking just the Edwardian period because I don’t want this to go crazy) you have fighting in 1338-1340, 1341-1345 (despite a truce technically being in effect from ‘43-45), then 1346-1347, then 1355-1358, then 1359-1360. So that’s 3 years, 5 years, then 2 years, 4 years, and 2 years, again a much higher average.

Got a question for you Steven. In a previous ask you agreed that the length of wars under the Targaryens is implausible. My question then is what would be a more realistic timespan for the Conquest, Dance of the Dragons, First Blackfyre Rebellion, Robert’s Rebellion, and the War of the Five Kings? Thanks.

Hoo boy, that’s kind of a can of worms I’m not sure you want to open, because it’ll play merry hell with the timeline.

See, all of GRRM’s wars are very short: the Conquest was one year, the Dance was three, First Blackfyre was one, Ninepenny Kings was one, Robert’s Rebellion was one year but across two, Greyjoy Rebellion was one, and the War of Five Kings is three and counting.

But to give a few examples from medieval warfare:

FIrst Crusade (4 years)
Second Crusade (3 years)
Third Crusade (5 years)
First War of Scottish Independence (32 years)
Hundred Years’ War (115 years)
Wars of the Roses (30 years)

And that’s just a handful of cases, you can find many many more.

So GRRM’s longest wars are Medieval history’s shorter wars.

How fertile is the Vale?

You may have already covered this, but I wonder exactly how fertile is the Vale? According to the wiki: “The Vale proper is a tranquil land of wide rivers, and hundreds of lakes. Wheat, corn, barley, pumpkins, and fruit grow in its fertile soil.”

By all accounts the Vale seems to be more bountiful than the North and probably the Westerlands. Yet for some reason the Vale can only muster about 30,000 or more soldiers at its peak, which is on par with the North.

I find this a bit peculiar because though the Vale proper cannot compete with the Reach and Riverlands in producing as much food (according to your estimates the Riverlands could boast an army of 80,000 at its full potential), surely it should still be able to sustain a larger population than the North and therefore be able to raise more troops.

I’ve discussed this here. The issue you’re missing here is one of size; the Vale proper is quite fertile (“a tranquil land of rich black soil…even in Highgarden the pumpkins were no larger nor the fruit any sweeter than here”), but it’s not very large compared to other regions of Westeros (”Though the Vale itself is famously fertile, it is small compared to the domains of other kings (and even some great lords), and the Mountains of the Moon are bleak, stony, and inhospitable.”)

Take a look at the map:

That blue circle is the Vale proper; the rest of the Vale is all mountains. That little triangle is just about the size of the Trident, far smaller than the Riverlands or the Westerlands as a whole, let alone the huge expanses of the North or the Reach. So while the Vale is quite fertile on a per-acre basis, and far more so than the North, the North has so much more land than the Vale that it evens out.

(Incidentally, I said the Riverlands at full strength ought to be able to raise 40,000, not 80,000 men).

With your response on how Edmure should handle the defense of the Riverlands, it assumes that both Tywin and Jaime have to cross the Red Fork, in a reverse battle of the Fords. However your mountain pass answer would have Tywin come from Deep Den, loop around and hit the defenders along the Red Fork from behind at Pinkmaiden. Which would rupture the entire defense and leave the Riverlands troops strung out in a line from Riverrun to Pinkmaiden, with Tywin and Jaime hot on their heels.

That is a trenchant critique, and I’m glad you asked it!

Even in that scenario, I would still maintain that it’s a better strategy than sending 4,000 men to get butchered uselessly at the Golden Tooth and theng, waiting at Riverrun until you get overrun.

For one thing, it gives you 4,000 more men to hold the Red Fork, which means extra men available to go out scouting for Tywin’s army so as not to be taken by surprise, extra men available to defend Pinkmaiden aaginst Tywin’s army (preventing him from rolling up the line), you still have the option to throwing in the reserves to push Tywin’s second army back, and you have at least a decent chance of getting the army back to Riverrun in good order. Certainly much better chance than in OTL.

For another, it’s still going to inflict more casualties on the enemy than OTL: Jaime’s army still needs to cross the Red Fork and Tywin’s army is stil going to have to assault a well-defended castle. And wearing down the Lannister forces also means slowing them down, preventing that lightning march across the south that knocks out so many castles (including Riverrun).

Kinda a nerdy question, but if you were creating a strategy game, how would you differentiate each region’s military? Any unique bonuses or units for each place?

(They’re all nerdy questions, anon. That’s why they’re good.)

So I did a bit of thinking about it here, but why not go into more detail about how we might go about differentiating the armies of the different kingdoms?

So here’s what I’d do:

the North:

Bonus to charge attacks – whether we’re talking about the Dance of the Dragons or the War of Five Kings, the North is most successful when it uses devastating shock tactics, and least successful when its on the defensive (with the exception of Moat Cailin).
New Unit: Northern heavy cavalry. My thinking is that Northern heavy cavalry have an increased chance to cause routs or eliminate enemy commanders, but must pursue fleeing enemies.

the Vale:

Bonus to fortifications – as we see with the Bloody Gate, the Vale fares best by building strong walls and making the enemy attack them, inflicting heavy casualties. Thus, Vale units gain two times the normal advantage from fortifying.

the Riverlands:

Bonus to scorched earth tactics – as we see with the various wars of the Riverlands, the Riverlanders are very good at severing supply lines, destroying everything in the line of march, and then whittling down the enemy. So I would give the Riverlands an automatic Pillage ability, allowing them to strip resources and move at the same time.

the Iron Islands:

Bonus to marine operations: all Ironborn naval units are both warships and transport ships, reflecting the longships’ capacity to quickly land reavers, attack, and then flee.
New Unit: Longship. Can ignore minimum water levels, sail on both ocean and rivers.

the Westerlands:

Bonus to infantry: the Westerlands have the best-trained pike levies in Westeros, so they get a bonus to unit discipline and attack power of their hand-to-hand infantry units.

the Stormlands:

bonus to artillery: the Stormlands canonically have a combat doctrine of being the best archers plus lots of castle-building, so I’d give their archers increased range and accuracy, doubled when they’re fortified.

the Reach:

best heavy cavalry: Reach knight units are stronger than the norm, and have a bonus to unit discipline, representing their devotion to the codes and disciplines of chivalry.
bonus to recruitment/unit size/number of units: to represent the Reach’s larger population.

Dorne:

best light cavalry: Dornish cavalry has the highest movement speed of any unit, and gets additional bonus when flanking or counter-attacking.
New Unit: Dornish cavalry. Only cavalry unit that can attack with both ranged weapons (throwing spears) and hand-to-hand (lances).