Two questions regarding your endgame: 1) Will there be a new monetary policy in Westeros such as the fiat system? 2) Will Westeros strengthen or weaken ties with Essos?

Not sure what you mean by my endgame…if you mean the end result of my Economic Development Plans, then here’s what I think:

Gradually. Note that pretty much all of my plans include the development of finance and banking. With that will come an expansion of non-metallic financial instruments being used in the economy: letters of credit, banker’s drafts, cheques, and bank notes. It will take a while for these things to spread beyond the relatively narrow confines of the urban bourgeoisie, however, even with an active state promoting the use of them by making them legal tender for taxes, for example.
Absolutely. Again, pretty much all of my plans involve expansion of commerce with Essos, albeit with a very keen eye toward climbing the value added ladder as quickly as possible. In the long run, it’s not good for Westeros to be a natural resources exporter only.

On your Dornish economic plan, how long would it take to pull the Torrentine into that valley and make it fertile? One generation, two? Your plans are great but can be undercut by having stupid kids (Quellon, Viserys II, etc) seeing the desert bloom and a forest of acacia rising up agaist the red sands has a dramatic effect.

At least a generation, and likely more than one, although it’s likely an iterative process where you’re gradually diverting more and more water and pushing it out further and further, so it’s not like you only receive the benefits at the end of the process.

But yes, that’s always a danger with elite-directed reform, especially in systems where political power is inherited. Unlike more broad-based systems, where you have institutions that can provide continuity of policy far longer than the span of a human life, you get these sudden and often wrenching changes when there’s a change in personnel (as it were).

Say you were Quellon Greyjoy prior to Robert’s Rebellion and you had just “freed” the remaining thralls on the islands. Given the relatively infertile nature of the II’s soils, would it be a wise move to convert most of the farmland into pasture for sheep, similar to the Highland Clearances of Scotland? I think that for a Lord wishing to promote better relations with the greenlanders, this is a smart move. Thought?

I don’t know if the Iron Islands has the landmass to make wool exports a viable economic strategy, especially when you’re right near to the North which can outproduce and outcompete you in that market without stretching.

As I said in my post on the Iron Islands and econ dev, I’d emphasize ironmongery, commerce, mercenary work, and organized crime.

Concerning Dorne’s Export Commodities: What’s the deal with Sandsilk? Why are they the only westerosi nation in the silk fabric sector? They obviously don’t grow the raw silk themselves, meaning they have to import it from the east. This puts them in competition with the 3 Daughters, yet we never hear of the Dornish being pulled into their endless trade wars. Could you please give your thoughts on the matter? Thank you.

Why do you assume the Dornish don’t produce their own silk? If mulberry can grow in India, South Africa, Iran, etc. it can probably grow in Dorne. Given that Dornish silk techniques are distinctive enough to be recognized on sight – “painted, not sewn. The Dornish paint their silks, I’ve heard” – and have their own distinct name, I’d lean towards them producing it.

So I don’t think they’re competitors with the Free Cities, I think they’re business partners. Dorne sells wine, peppers, citrus fruit, and sand-silk and they buy dyes, spices, textiles, etc. from the Free Cities.

As to why the Dornish are the only Westerosi who have a silk industry, my guess would be that, as silk is otherwise found in Essos (it can be bought in Qarth but given the city’s commercial focus is likely a middleman, it’s manufactured in Naath, and given that the Silk Road is one of the roads that connect western Essos with Yi Ti is likely also manufactured there), it was brought over by those Rhoynar artisans we hear of from Nymeria’s Conquest.

Does House Arryn have any lands, either direct or through a vassal house, on the western side of the Mountains of the Moon (excluding the area west of Wickenden? I’m particularly interested in the region of the SW corner of the Bite? Various sources (Wiki, ridiculous WorldoIaF maps) indicate that it belongs to the Arryns, yet my common sense and the canon history of the region (pre-Conquest, through the Targ’s reign and the novels themselves) all point to this being near impossible. (1)Thoughts?

Continuation of my Q about the SW corner of the Bite: (2) If this region belonged to the Tullys, would it be a good location for a port town in the context of your Economic Development Plan for the Riverlands? (3) If it is House Arryn’s *cough!, would it be worth the trouble to get your hands on the lands?

1. I’m assuming you mean that strip of land along the coast immediately south of the Sisters, and not the part of the Riverlands along the kingsroad (which the Valemen tried to capture during the reign of Rolland II Arryn, who was defeated and later beheaded by Tristifer V Mudd).

It’s a bit tricky, because that land doesn’t always exist, depending on the map. (Incidentally, the World of Ice and Fire map of the Vale is completely rubbish – somehow putting the Mountains of the Moon smack-dab on top of the Vale proper, to the east of the Bloody Gate) Some of the various book maps, for example, as well as Tear’s fan map (which GRRM endorsed pre-Lands of Ice and Fire), show the mountains coming up right to the coast as opposed to having this decent stretch of level ground.

Now, I don’t think it’s that impossible for this land (if it exists) to Arryn rather than Tully – for one thing, it’s substantially to the east of the Mountains of the Moon, which seems to have been the historical boundary between the Riverlands and the Vale. It’s also really close to the Sisters and the northernmost Fingers, suggesting that historically those lands would have been in the orbit of either the Sunderlands or the Coldwaters or the Belmores or the Lynderlys or the Corbrays.

2. As a port…eh. It’s got a couple problems in that White Harbor and the Sisters are already-established competitors really close by, so you’re going to struggle to get off the ground. Exporting your goods into the Vale itself is going to either involve sailing all the way around the coast, in which case why not cut out the middleman and sell to Gulltown directly, or an incredibly expensive and risky mountain portage. If instead you want to export to the south or west, you’re going to run into some pretty steep rent-seeking from the Riverlords (especially the Freys if you want to access Seagard’s port), and it’s not really that much of a time saving compared to just going to White Harbor and taking the Kingsroad all the way down.

3. It honestly depends on how productive these potentially non-existent lands are. The Riverlands aren’t exactly wanting for farmland, and they have easier ways to access the Narrow Sea through Maidenpool and Saltpans and the like. And it would be very hard to hang onto them, because they could be pretty easily cut off by a force landing from the Sisters.

Hi, I love your economic development series! One thing that stuck out to me was the need for immigration in the north. The northerners just plain need more people to produce enough to be self sufficient AND trade competitive. Framing my question in a Post Dream/Post Second-Long-Night scenario, where the north as hit hardest but the south is also devastated, how would you (or Sansa Queen Of The North) repopulate the North? I assume some outreach to Essos would be necessary

I’ve talked about this a bit in my Northern economic development plan, but the foundation of any Northern immigration plan is going to have to be something akin to the German princes offering vacant land for free (as well as tax exemptions and other privileges) to anyone willing to settle in their lands after the Thirty Years War had depopulated entire regions.

We’re already starting to see that a little bit with the 100,000 willdings who just arrived, growing the North’s population by 2.5%, getting settled on the Gift. But, given its extremely low population density, the North is full of Gifts yet ungifted.

In terms of where these people would come from, you’re going to want people who are already familiar with agriculture and livestock herding, so I would concentrate on the younger sons of landholding yeomen who aren’t going to inherit the family farm, as well as any and all peasants who don’t hold land (your crofters, your cotters, your sharecroppers, etc.). In so far as the North is also looking to industrialize, I would target journeymen and apprentices from the textiles industries of Myr, Tyrosh, Norvos, etc.

Anonymous asked: How long would it take to raise a city of comparable size to White Harbor and its fortifications on the river that passes through the Rills? I meant the one that leads to Torrhen’s Square, but I’m interested to know whether you think another river would be a better candidate.

Ok, now that I know what you’re getting at, I feel like I can answer that question.

Torrhen’s Square is a good location for a city – you’re building on top of an already-existing settlement with good defenses, the lake offers quite a bit of space for docks, you’ve got direct access to the Saltspear, Blazewater Bay, and the Sunset Sea, and its location nearby to the Wolfswood gives it a natural monopoly on Northern timber exports.

The biggest potential problem I see for Torrhen’s Square’s economic development is that it’s right by Barrowton, which is already a town with a strong economic presence (I’m pretty sure it’s a major livestock market, with sheep, cattle, and horses on offer), and has a shorter route to the Saltspear and thus foreign markets. So if the Dustins decide to make it a competition, Torrhen’s Square would be decidedly the underdog.

As for how long…well, King’s Landing took only 25 years to go from nothing to bigger than White Harbor, so it all depends on what level of investments go into it:

Sawmills, timber yards, carpenters, etc. – the necessary foundation for an economy, as proximity to the wolfswood is TS’ main value added. And this is going to take some significant up-front investments, because sawmills and the like are not cheap.
A Northern canal – would turbo-charge TS’ economic development, similar to how the Erie Canal changed upstate New York from a rural backwater into an industrial hotbed – depending on competition from other canals. Both Torrhen’s Square and White Harbor would grow significantly, with White Harbor gaining new western markets for its wool and its silver, and Torrhen’s Square gaining new eastern markets for its timber and woodcrafts, as well as the added revenue from providing commercial services to the passing trade.
A Stark navy-yard – given the proximity to essentially unlimited timber, if the North wants a navy on its west coast again, and it desperately needs one, putting a navy-yard and naval base on Torrhen’s Square makes a ton of sense. The raw materials are right there, the lake allows you to have a lot of ships in construction or moored up in one place, the distance from the coast makes it very hard for Ironborn to burn your fleet at anchor, etc. And it would provide a baseline of demand for a shipbuilding industry to develop, and you’re going to need one of them if you want to capture the maximum value-added from Northern exports and generate additional economic growth you’ll need to pay for all of this.

Would a hypothetical post-WftD regress back into feudal Kingdoms (divided into their historical boundaries, but leaving a wide-berth around smoking ruin KL and Oldtown respectively) affect your EDPs? Obviously some changes will have to be made, but can the Kings trade and build industry as effectively as their Lord Paramount predecessors?

The answer is, it kind of depends on what kind of damage the War for the Dawn does. If there’s a massive loss of life, you potentially can have a negative population spiral, because 90%+ of the population are also your primary food producers – lower population means lower production, which means less food available so birth-rates decline, and the spiral continues.

On the other hand, when you have a massive loss of life, you do get a huge increase in per-capita material living standards. As we saw with the Black Death, epidemic diseases kill lots of people, but they leave the land, the houses, improvements, and other non-perishable property intact, and now it’s spread over a smaller population. There’s some scholars who argue that one of the catalysts for the Industrial Revolution was the increase in surplus capital from the Black Death.

In terms of how the political changes might change things…

On the one hand, you now have much more flexibility within your own polity: you have your own coinage so you can set monetary policy, you have your own taxation system so you can set fiscal policy. So if there are institutional barrier at the kingdom-wide level to certain economic development, than potentially moving back to the Seven Kingdoms could ease the way for that.

On the other hand, you now have the added difficulty of international commerce within what was once a single polity: seven kingdoms means seven currencies, which means you have foreign exchange issues; it also means that you need to work out trade deals with the other kingdoms in order to be able to sell your goods outside of your own patch. And of course, any kind of economic development that crosses borders is now made a lot more complicated.

In your EDPs, you recommend city charters in every one of the regions (except maybe the Iron Islands). The question is: Why would any Lord Paramount (or the King) encourage the creation of such charters? You wrote in response to one ask (long ago) that these charters made the residents “free burghers rather than serfs or vassals”, “the city/town and its residents were no longer part of a feudal fief, and thus didn’t have to pay feudal taxes”, etc.

There’s a couple reasons.

First and foremost, money. While the residents themselves don’t pay feudal taxes (or sometimes fewer of them, or only to the liege lord rather than the whole chain of subinfeudation), the people who travel to the town aren’t afforded the same luxury. And since cities are hubs for trade, there’s a lot of money to be made from import duties, port fees, warehousing fees, and other taxes.

Second, goods and services. Aside from your village blacksmiths or village carpenters or whatever, the vast majority of peasants are engaged in the production of agricultural goods and other raw materials. Cities, on the other hand, is where you get specialized manufacturing on larger scales – textiles, metalworks, glass, etc. A domestic source for these kind of goods means that it’s cheaper to get those kinds of goods for yourself, and it means a more favorable balance of trade for the goods you can’t get at home. So to put your military cap on for a minute, if you’re trying to equip an army, cities with their more advanced economies are invaluable.

Third, political organization. While this is potentially a double-edged sword for feudal lords, one of the advantages of having cities is that they govern themselves to some extent. This means that the lord, who already has to administer a fief with an extremely limited staff, doesn’t have to spend time governing them and has someone on the ground they can turn to enforce laws for them. For example, you’re probably going to be able to raise more in taxes (or payments in lieu of taxes) than you would from the peasants under your own control and with less effort, because people are more willing to pay when they’re taxing themselves. Likewise, a city or town militia means higher-quality infantry – at the very least, you know they’ve done some drilling and have standard equipment – than your standard peasant levy.

Don’t know if you’ve touched on this one before, but why do you think that the Kings of the Rock never adopted more advanced financial instruments? Tywin seems to pretty easily serve as a continental financier for the Iron Throne using his extensive gold reserves. But you don’t really see any state bank or IB-like reserve banking that would allow the Lannisters to create more functional wealth through lending and develop more extensive bureaucracy. They seem to just leave their gold in a vault.

Here’s why: because the Lannisters are noblemen and not merchants.

A couple quotes on this point:

“A coin is as dangerous as a sword in the wrong hands.“

His uncle Kevan looked at him oddly. “Not to us, surely. The gold of Casterly Rock …”

“… is dug from the ground. Littlefinger’s gold is made from thin air, with a snap of his fingers.”

Lord Tywin had always held the Free Cities in contempt. They fight with coins instead of swords, he used to say. Gold has its uses, but wars are won with iron.

Tywin Lannister was a very intelligent, well-educated man of his class, but that class was of a warrior aristocracy. He wouldn’t have been educated in more accounting than was needed to understand what his steward and his maester were reporting to him, because book-keeping is for women and servants. And that stuff is basic household accounts, not business accounting. And no Lannister would ever, ever learn finance, because that’s for merchants, and merchants are a lesser class of people who are concerned about gold rather than glory, who care more for probity than for honor. Look at how the Spicers are looked down on for coming from people “in trade.”

But I don’t want you to get the idea that Tywin was ignorant. It’s more about how he thought about money. Take a look at the essay I wrote about Tywin’s economic policy – Tywin’s father was looked down on because he loaned money to “common merchants,” even though that makes a ton of economic sense for the economy of the Westerlands, because it’s acting like a merchant. Tywin is a pretty classical mercantilist in a lot of ways – he wants to keep as much gold on hand as he can, because he thinks physical possession of gold makes you more powerful, he’s much more worried about getting his principal back than the income he might be forgoing in interest payments. And most of all, Tywin uses the gold of Casterly Rock for political purposes, not for economic purposes – he acts as Aerys II’s bank in order to make himself indispensable as Hand, he does the same thing for Robert in order to keep extending Lannister influence at court, etc. As the quote above points out, for Tywin, gold is a means, not an end in itself.

Tyrion, in part because he’s unusually well-read and perceptive, comes the closest to breaking out of this mentality, especially when he becomes Master of Coin and starts taking a really close look at the royal accounts. And even he, one of the smartest men in Westeros, can’t quite grasp what Littlefinger’s been up to.

And as I discuss in my “Who Stole Westeros?” essay here, Littlefinger is counting on this hole in the education of the Westerosi nobility to make his schemes work. Jon Arryn and men of his class don’t know about finance, so they wouldn’t think twice about what he was telling him about increasing revenues tenfold, and even if they investigated him, they wouldn’t understand what to look for.