Couldn’t Robb have just sent ravens north ordering lords to gather and re-take Moat Cailin from the north? The Mandelys alone could probably have done so.

Robb could have sent the ravens, but the question is who would have gotten them?

Winterfell had fallen, so there’s no Stark to coordinate the reconquest; the Northern lords are thoroughly distracted by the Hornwood Crisis and even when they get past that, the failed attempt to retake Winterfell further scatters the loyalist forces.

These are all dominos that have to fall for the North to fall, because as we see in ADWD, even with everything going against them, the Northmen still put Moat Cailin under siege, with the crannogmen attacking from the south and the Ryswells and Dustins from the North, and then Ramsay and Roose coordinating from north and south of the Moat. If Winterfell had not fallen or had been recaptured, Moat Cailin would no doubt have fallen faster.

I hope si not a stupid question, but why did the vale lords want to join the starks in the wo5k? What do they do when robb is crowned ? Thank you

Not a stupid question at all.

There were substantial numbers of Vale lords who wanted to fight the Lannisters for several reasons:

“Lord Jon was much loved, and the insult was keenly felt when the king named Jaime Lannister to an office the Arryns had held for near three hundred years. Lysa has commanded us to call her son the True Warden of the East, but no one is fooled. Nor is your sister alone in wondering at the manner of the Hand’s death. None dare say Jon was murdered, not openly, but suspicion casts a long shadow.” (Catelyn VI, AGOT)

“Pycelle pushed himself to his feet. He was clad in a magnificent robe of thick red velvet, with an ermine collar and shiny gold fastenings. From a drooping sleeve, heavy with gilded scrollwork, he drew a parchment, unrolled it, and began to read a long list of names, commanding each in the name of king and council to present themselves and swear their fealty to Joffrey. Failing that, they would be adjudged traitors, their lands and titles forfeit to the throne.

The names he read made Sansa hold her breath. Lord Stannis Baratheon, his lady wife, his daughter. Lord Renly Baratheon. Both Lord Royces and their sons.” (Sansa V, AGOT)

“Lysa was as lonely as she was. Her new husband seemed to spend more time at the foot of the mountain than he did atop it. He was gone now, had been gone the past four days, meeting with the Corbrays. From bits and pieces of overheard conversations Sansa knew that Jon Arryn’s bannermen resented Lysa’s marriage and begrudged Petyr his authority as Lord Protector of the Vale. The senior branch of House Royce was close to open revolt over her aunt’s failure to aid Robb in his war, and the Waynwoods, Redforts, Belmores, and Templetons were giving them every support.” (Sansa VII, ASOS)

The Lords of the Vale don’t declare for Robb Stark because Lysa has summoned her knights to the Eyrie and refuses to let them leave – “If it were up to me, I would take a hundred men into the mountains, root them out of their fastnesses, and teach them some sharp lessons, but your sister has forbidden it. She would not even permit her knights to fight in the Hand’s tourney. She wants all our swords kept close to home, to defend the Vale” – although given her close cooperation with Petyr Baelish later in ASOS, we can surmise that the reason why the knights of the Vale were kept at home is that A. Littlefinger didn’t want Robb Stark to win the War of Five Kings, and B. he wanted to keep them fresh for his attempt to win the Iron Throne.

Was it ever possible to take successive castles by surprise? Or completely ignore them and move on through enemy land? We see the Blackfish holding out against the Lannisters/Freys with just 200 men, but at the start of the war, the westerlands armies rampage all across the Riverlands incredibly quickly, and Twyin after the Green Fork somehow takes Harranhal by walking in. Is this just off page weirdness?

Yeah, that particular part of the campaign has GRRM’s thumb squarely on the scales, because it has to happen that way in order to set up Robb’s decision to go for Jaime or Tywin.

I mean, it’s technically possible to take successive castles by surprise – but it becomes increasingly unlikely with each castle, because word spreads fast. And it’s absolutely possible to ignore castles as long as you’re willing to live off the land and cut yourself off from supply lines, but that doesn’t seem to be what Tywin was doing, since these castles are described as fallen not bypassed.

As for Harrenhal, that’s never made sense.

I know Tywin was in a bit of a tough place when Robb went west but shouldn’t his first priority still have been Kings Landing? If Stannis overthrows Joffrey, Tywin knows Stannis will have Tywin’s head. Sure, staying put places a lot of stress on his men (many might desert) but going west seems like a doomed strategy (but for GRRM’s heavy thumb). Wouldn’t it have made some sense to at least send some reinforcements to KL and/or strong diplomacy with the Tyrells? We don’t really seem that yet.

So I talked about this a lot in my coverage of ACOK. In many ways, Tywin is in a no-win scenario: if he abandons the west, he might arrive in King’s Landing without an army; if he heads west, he might lose the capital, the king, and thus any sense of a political sentiment. My guess is that he was banking on King’s Landing being able to last long enough in a siege situation for him to get to the Westerlands and back.

Splitting his army would have been very dangerous indeed, because in that scenario he wouldn’t have had the numerical advantage against Edmure’s army, which raises the odds that Edmure win a much more decisive victory at the Red Fork and/or go on the offensive and catch Tywin’s army before it can get to King’s Landing.

Diplomacy with the Tyrells worked out in OTL, but was very much a “heavy thumb” moment. Keep in mind the Tyrells have been the major threat to King’s Landing, blockading grain supplies and besieging it from a distance, and gradually moving up their army to attack directly. Up until Renly unexpectly dies, they have no reason to make a deal with Tywin rather than overthrow his regime.

Steven, re: the recent talk about feudal military service and the politics thereof… do you think Lord Selwyn was/is trying to thread that needle? Tarth is a large fief that ought to support a levy of men larger than “one” but one is precisely the number of people who ride forth from Tarth. Brienne isn’t at the head of a column, she’s flying solo. That says to me Selwyn is hedging; if Renly wins his daughter was in his service, if the Lannisters win he can play the “I didn’t send levies” card.

I’m pretty sure that’s exactly what he did.

We learn in the Prologue to ACOK that only half the Stormlords actually sent men to Renly, while the other half “sit behind their walls waiting to see how the wind rises and who is likely triumph.” And Selwyn Tarth is explicitly listed as belonging to that faction, as Davos reports:

“I broke bread with Gulian Swann and old Penrose, and the Tarths consented to a midnight meeting in a grove.”

So yeah, I think Selwyn held back his levies but let his idealistic daughter pursue her dreams.

What was the point of Asha taking Deepwood Motte what did it give the Ironborn?

What was the point of any of Balon Greyjoy’s plans?

Yes, Deepwood Motte gets you a stronghold with access to the sea, but you’re so far away from the rest of the action that you can’t really support any of the other Ironborn forces, so you make yourself somewhat of an irrelevance. And honestly, Bear Island, being an island, makes for a much better choice for a stronghold in that region.

IMHO, the reason Asha takes Deepwood Motte is to give Bran and Co. a reason why they can’t take shelter with the loyal Glovers and have to keep going straight north to the Wall.

Why is the Golden Tooth so important with Robb having to bypass it through a hidden pass, Edmure holding the pass and Daemon Blackfyre having to break through the castle? Tywin didn’t leave through the pass, according to this quote ” All the time they were battling in the pass, Lord Tywin was bringing a second Lannister army around from the south. It’s said to be even larger than Jaime’s host”. Yet he can’t have been too far south as he crossed the Red Fork and didn’t go into the Reach.

The Golden Tooth guards the main pass between the Riverlands and the Westerlands, through which passes the River Road that stretches from Lannisport and Casterly Rock to Riverrun and Lord Harroway’s Town. So it’s a big deal because it’s guarding the direct route.

My theory about what Tywin did is that he took the southern pass through Deep Den along the Gold Road, then hooked up sharply to attack the Mummer’s Ford.

After all, Robb says that “Lord Derik had no sooner crossed the Red Fork than the Lannisters fell upon him, the king’s banner be damned, and Gregor Clegane took them in the rear as they tried to pull back across the Mummer’s Ford.” In other words, Gregor Clegane was on the east side of the ford before the battle started, and Gregor is definitely with Tywin’s army at all points after this battle, so it stands to reason he was with it before.

In your head canon, where did the turncloak mercenary Tyroshi swordsmen go?

According to GRRM:

Second; what did Robb do with the Tyroshi sellsword who dipped his banners at Riverrun?

I don’t know what Robb did with him… but =I= forgot all about him, I blush to admit.

Now that you’ve reminded me… I imagine he kept most of them with him when he went west. Having just marched through the westerlands when they were on the other side, they would have had a certain value.

I also would expect that he suffered some desertions… these men were not bound to him by oath or ancient loyalty, and there was plenty of plunder to be had…

So chances are they left his army after he got back to the Riverlands, when they found out about the Blackwater and thought they might as well get out while the getting was good, before Tywin and his new Tyrell reinforcements could wreak his vengeance on those who betrayed him.

How do you feel the battle of the green fork would have gone if Jon snow was put in charge or if Robb had swapped commands with Roose Bolton.

Well, I think this is a case of “"any Coburg prince.” I.E, I don’t think you necessarily need a Robb Stark – Robett or Galbart Glover, the Greatjon, really any competent commander could have done a much better job.

As I write about in my recaps of Tyrion VII and Tyrion VIII of AGOT, I think Roose Bolton deliberately botched an eminently winnable battle. To begin with, deciding to go on the offensive was odd, given the Northmen were outnumbered and lacking in cavalry. His night march is especially weird, because A. he knows that Robb wants Tywin’s army as far away from the Trident as possible, and B. despite achieving tactical surprise, Roose gives the game away by drawing up in battle formation rather than attacking Tywin’s army immediately.

But even more egregiously, given that Roose has an army of almost entirely foot and a strong defensive position on the high ground that stood perpendicular to the Green Fork itself, his decision to send slow-moving spear-and-shield infantry to attack Tywin’s cavalry vanguard is absolutely insane. As in the Battle of the Hastings, if you put a shield wall on the heights of a long line of hills, knightly cavalry cannot break through – the uphill climb makes it all but impossible to generate the speed you need for a proper charge, horses founder and fall – wrecking formations. Likewise, the heights make an infantry assault even more difficult – it’s incredibly difficult to stay in formation and your shield up while you’re climbing, massed pike formations draw devastating plunging arrow volleys that gain momentum and range when you’re firing down-slope, and the Lannister bowmen’s shot is going to fall short.

What’s bizarre about the Battle of the Green Fork is that Roose Bolton deliberately does what Harold Godwinson absolutely sought to avoid throughout the whole battle, without the feigned retreat, the faked death of William, and the actual death of Harold that was necessary to get the Saxon housecarls to break discipline.

So with a competent and/or loyal commander in charge, the Northmen take the heights, form a strong shield wall to screen their archers, and hold their position, forcing the Lannisters to make repeated up-hill attacks that are bloodily and repeatedly repulsed. Once the word gets around that the Young Wolf isn’t present on the battlefield, and the Lannisters are forced to withdraw, the Northmen pursue relentlessly down the Kingsroad rather than retreating back to the Twins, increasing the Lannisters’ OTL losses from the forced-march retreat.

If at all possible, try to maintain contact with Tywin’s army and slow them down as much as possible, creating the possibility that Robb’s combined Northmen and Riverlander cavalry force can beat Tywin’s mixed force to the Trident, trapping Tywin’s army between the Green Fork and the Ruby Ford and the mountains, potentially knocking the Lannisters out of the war in one fell swoop. But short of that, make sure to seize the strong defensive position at the crossroads and take control of the Ruby Ford, which Roose doesn’t do until Arya VII of ACOK. This creates a strong defensive line anchored by the Red Fork of the Trident, ensuring that the reaving never spreads “north across the Trident almost to the Twins.” It also gives Robb a protected seaport at Saltpans which allows communication, reinforcements, and resupply from White Harbor.