Why did Illyrio send Barristan to Dany instead of Aegon? Barry’s reputation is seen as useful for the ruler he would turn up with.

Well, keep in mind, I’m fairly sure Illyrio’s plan to get Dany to Pentos would have involved trying to get her together with Aegon and get her dragons under his control.

Dany and Aegon showing up as independent rival monarchs was not part of the plan up to mid-ADWD, and if it hadn’t been for Tyrion you likely would have had Aegon showing up at Meereen as one of Dany’s suitors, like Quentyn but with sex appeal (sorry, @poorquentyn, but it’s true) and one of the best armies in Westeros at the moment she’s under siege.

The problem is that Tyrion completely deconstructs Aegon’s Hero’s Journey, and so instead of the Hidden Prince Marrying the Princess and Training His Dragon, Aegon’s destiny is to become the Mummer’s Dragon who will take the Iron Throne to the cheers of the mob, only to be roasted alive when the Slayer of Lies comes to take what’s hers.

So the personnel shifts in Essos turn out to have been really crucial: sending Barristan means Dany doesn’t get assassinated on the docks of Qarth (which would have been a major setback, but would have cleared the way for Aegon ultimately), but because Jorah has his own plan which doesn’t involve Illyrio, Dany doesn’t go to Pentos, so that plan is scotched. The problem here is that Illyrio is trying to work at arm’s length (which is good tradecraft, but there are…well, tradeoffs) across two continents, and unlike in cyvasse or chess, the pawns have wills of their own:

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.”

And so do the best laid plans of cheesemongers gang oft alay…

Could it be that the assassination attempt on Daenerys(poisoned wine) was only stopped because Robert had taken his order back on his deathbed. Varys said it might be too late,and it was last minute. Jorah still reported on Dany in Qarth,and we now know Illyrio didn’t expect Dany to survive with the Dothraki anyway&only mattered again for his plans as she hatched dragons. Did the cancelling of the kill order arrive in time&save Dany&not Jorah’s ‘love’?

Here’s the thing that people don’t get about the wineseller: the whole thing was staged to push Khal Drogo into accelerating his plans for invasion, and carefully scripted by Varys and Illyrio.

Varys gets the order, but rather than hire a professional like one of the Sorrowful Men or something, he hires a complete patsy who even a relative naif like Dany sees through in an instant. And then he sends a letter to Illyrio telling him exactly what’s going to happen, and Illyrio sends a letter to Jorah, and lo and behold Jorah’s on the scene to “save” Dany and gain her trust so that he can help Varys and Illyrio “steer” Dany from long range.

In other words…it’s not a “real” assassination attempt, it’s more of an elaborately plotted piece of theater meant to convey the impression of an assassination attempt.

A mummer’s farce, one might say…

Dany won’t burn Aegon because: she is not a pyromaniac, has no proof that Aegon is fake, Aegon has done nothing to piss her off (even killed/defeated her enemies for her), Aegon is a kinsman offering her an alliance (burning him is not exactly great PR), Aegon is a Targaryen with public support etc. I can see potential conflict but it goes against Danny to do this sort of thing

Totally disagree.

Dany’s decisions about a lot of things are driven by prophecy, as we see with the “three treasons.” And in Aegon’s case, Dany has prophetic reasons to believe that Aegon is false – the mummer’s dragon – especially when she turns up and Varys the Mummer shows up by his side and realizes that Varys and Illyrio have been double-dealing with her.

And in terms of pissing her off – he’ll have taken her throne. Yes, he’ll be offering her an alliance, but as one of his (multiple) queens. Dany is not about that any more. She’s the Mother of Dragons, the hero heralded by prophecy, and she is done making peace.

You mentioned in a recent post that you though Varys and Illyrio had been lovers? Can you expand on that?

I don’t have a huge amount of evidence for this, but Varys and Illyrio share a bond of trust and partnership that has endured for decades and across oceans, which is pretty rare in ASOIAF.

So one of the things that struck me in Tyrion I of ADWD is this passage that comes immediately after Tyrion meets Illyrio as a “friend of Varys the Spider”:

Beneath his window six cherry trees stood sentinel around a marble pool, their slender branches bare and brown. A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo’s blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble, though his sword shimmered like true steel.

And then in Tyrion II we get this exchange that gives context to what it represents:

“…even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay.”

“…How is it that the Spider became so dear to you?“

“We were young together, two green boys in Pentos.”

“Varys came from Myr.”

“So he did. I met him not long after he arrived, one step ahead of the slavers. By day he slept in the sewers, by night he prowled the rooftops like a cat. I was near as poor, a bravo in soiled silks, living by my blade. Perhaps you chanced to glimpse the statue by my pool? Pytho Malanon carved that when I was six-and-ten. A lovely thing, though now I weep to see it.”

“Age makes ruins of us all. I am still in mourning for my nose. But Varys …”

“In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. In Pentos his accent marked him, and once he was known for a eunuch he was despised and beaten. Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city’s footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they’d stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice.”

I found it interesting that the symbol of Illyrio’s past is a depiction of male beauty – clearly, back in the day, Illyrio was enough of a hottie to inspire sculptors to work pro-bono, since he was only “a bravo in spoiled silks” back then. And Illyrio thinks of Varys’ “dearness” as associated with that youthful beauty, of being youths together.

(credit to Pojypojy)

Now, it’s could all be totally platonic, but it’s not like there isn’t a history of homosocial and homoromantic relationships between young men in Renaissance city-states. And there’s something about the way that Illyrio says “why he chose me to protect him I may never know” that reminds me of people in long-term relationships who talk about not knowing what their partner saw in them in the beginning.

And if we’re going by the usual GRRM metrics of what would the most tragic possible outcome be, imagine this scenario. Varys and Illyrio are lovers, and trust each other implicitly. Indeed, so self-sacrificing is Varys that he elevates Illyrio to wealth and power to the point where Illyrio gets married to the Prince’s cousin, and Varys even overlooks Illyrio’s passion for Sera.

But then Varys executes the greatest scheme in their careers, the one that actually means something to him because of the possibility of producing the perfect prince, and he gives over the royal baby he smuggled out of King’s Landing into the hands of the one person he trusts in the world. And Illyrio, out of love for the other woman, replaces that baby with his own son. What more profound betrayal can you imagine?