Different anon, but in regards to Lannister and the gold market, how likely is it that they insisted upon ALL taxes being paid in gold from at least the bannermen with mines if not all of their principal houses, while most other Kings/overlords were fine with whatever combination of precious metals, food, timber, etc… their subjects could provide.

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

Almost certainly, yes.

This seems like it would produce a lot of… I think economic velocity is there term?

Like, if their bannermen need to pay taxes in gold, they’re going to concentrate on either mining it (which is going to require paying workers or letting them keep a share of it or something) or on producing things they can then sell for gold to pay their taxes.

The Lannisters, in turn, cannot eat gold or sleep on it or make armor or swords out of it or whatnot. They’re going to turn around and immediately spend a lot of that gold on stuff that isn’t gold, pumping it right back into the economy they just extracted it from and once again encouraging people to accept payment for things in currency rather than in kind.

Absolutely agree. I would imagine, therefore, that the economy of the Westerlands is more economically “advanced” than a lot of its neighbors, in several ways:

You’d see much less barter and trading “in kind” and almost all transactions are made in currency (not getting into bills of exchange just for the sake of clarity). Even without a Golden Bank, I would expect to see more in the way of a financial sector, with goldsmiths and merchants acting as moneylenders using gold stocks as reserves for loans.

In the Riverlands or the Reach, where the most common thing you have to exchange is agricultural products, I imagine you’d see the reverse, where there’s more barter and trade in kind and fewer transactions in currency – and a lot more of the phenomenon where prices in currency change rapidly during times of crisis when people’s liquidity preferences would change b/c you can’t eat gold.

You’d see mining, processing (smelting), and smithing of gold and silver as a much bigger percentage of the economy (I talk about Westerlands guilds here), and correspondingly a lower percentage of the economy working in agriculture. That’s not to say that there’s no farming in the Westerlands – those vast herds of cattle Robb’s army rustled were tended by someone, and Cornfield clearly suggests that the southern Westerlands grows a fair bit of cereal crops – or that agricultural workers aren’t in the majority, but I might expect to see 75-80% as opposed to 90% everywhere else.

In turn, this would suggest that the Westerlands might have a higher rate of urbanization per capita than the Reach, even though the Reach would have a higher absolute number of towns.

Moreover, I imagine there’s a good bit of interregional trade between the Westerlands and its immediate neighbors – the West has the gold, the Reach and the Riverlands have the food, it makes sense. I also wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of wars between these three regions have broken out over changing terms of trade, if one side gets too greedy or decides that it would like to horizontally integrate instead of trade.
And finally, we have textual evidence from WOIAF that there’s a lot of international trade from a very early period. This might explain why Lannisport is such a big city despite being on the wrong coast, because the gold was such a lure to foreign traders that they were willing to sail west across the Summer Sea, and then the city grew to serve foreign trade. It sort of reminds me a little of the trade imbalances between Europe and China in the 18th and 19th century, but in reverse, where the Westerlands has the gold and Essos has the manufactured goods and luxury items and so Essos gets the hard currency it needs to have a large banking sector.

(And velocity is exactly the right term…)

Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: The Westerlands, Part II

So in an unprecedented development, I’ve had to split one of these essays into three parts, because this one was getting ridiculously long before I even got to Tywin, and I’m going to need some serious space to talk about the Rains of Castamere.
So enjoy!
(more…)

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What if Lady Ellyn had sisters who married…

What would have happened if the Reyne-Tarbeck rebellion would have had outer support? With this I mean that the Reynes had claims to Casterly Rock older than the Lannisters themselves. Supposing than Ellyn Reyne would have had younger sisters who would have been capable of marrying one a Tyrell and another a Tully (or a Redwyne), how much would that have changed the outcome and even the beginning of the rebellion? Tywin relied on speed after all to defeat them, but supposing the Tyrells or Redwynes or Tullys would have been willing to meddle on Westerlands affairs (The Tyrells being eager with having a wide support, the Redwynes being the monopoly on the sea-trade and the Tullys still hurt for the broken betrothal of Celia) so, just speculation, really, because a web of alliances (other than the Reyne-Tarbeck themselves) may have been essential. And now that I think of it… did the Gardeners marry some Reyne to try overthrow the Lannister regime in some age before the Draconic Conquest?

Also, is Ellyn Reyne supposed to be an alter-ego of Barbrey Dustin more than one from Cersei? Both wanting to be their overlord’s family above all, but ending up hating them more than nothing in Westeros? One in the North, the other in the West

I don’t know what you mean by “claims to Casterly Rock older than the Lannisters themselves.” If you’re talking about Loreon the Lion, not only is that claim very much on the distaff side, but it doesn’t predate the Lannisters. I couldn’t find any mention of an alliance between the Reynes and Casterlys, for example.

As for outside support during the Rains, I think a house would have had to be reckless to the point of ambitious – Aegon V had already militarily intervened twice in the Westerlands, and there’s no reason he wouldn’t have gone for a third. But yes, it would have helped.

I don’t think Ellyn Reyne is an alter-ego of anyone. As the song goes…

Westerlands v2.0

Earlier today, GRRM released a new sample, this time an extended version of the Westerlands section from WOIAF.

Knowing that some people are interested in such things, I decided to do a quick compare and contrast to see what new information we can learn:

Introduction:

– There’s a great little ghost story that got excised. Apparently. King Morgon Banefort was “supposedly a necromancer of terrible power,” who swore that he would “return from the grave to wreak vengeance upon them one and all.” King Loreon fed the body to his lions to prevent that, but the lions later broke free and slew three of his sons.

– The Andal hostages that Tyrion III and Gerold II took in exchange for lands, titles, and marriages apparently were thoroughly indoctrinated to be loyal to the Lannisters, such that “now their blood runs gold,” and seem to have turned against their fathers, keeping the Andals from taking the kingdom. Clever.

House Lannister Under the Dragons:

– apparently, the Joanna Lannister who fought the Red Kraken was even more of a badass: “acting as regent for her young son, donned man’s mail to drive the Red Kraken from her shores, and later did much to reclaim Lannister glory and win favor with the crown, lending gold for the restoration of King’s Landing.”

– we learn a bit more about Tywald’s death, and learn that the Peake Uprising ended more conclusively than thought: “Pierced through with a spear as he clambered through the broken gates of Starpike, Tywald died in the arms of his twin brother Tion, who was serving as a squire to Prince Aegon Targaryen, King Maekar’s youngest son.” So Tion was Egg’s squire (man it would have changed history had Tion not died at Wendwater Bridge), Maekar died during the Storming of Starpike, which casts doubt on my assassination theory. And we learn that Ser Roger Reyne killed seven Peakes in retaliation for his father’s death before Aegon stopped him.

– Interesting. Apparently the Lannisters threw their weight behind Egg in the Great Council of 233: “The assembled nobles, swayed in no small part by the eloquence (and, some suggest, the gold) of Lord Gerold the Golden, ultimately awarded the Iron Throne to Prince Aegon.” Man, had Gerold or Tion not died, Egg would have had a much easier time of it.

– Apparently Tion chose to marry Ellyn Reyne, because “his brother had pleaded with him to “take care of Lady Ellyn” with his last words.”

– Yikes, do not cross Ellyn Reyne. Apparently when the fool Lord Toad joked about the Rain of Reynes, “she commanded that Lord Toad be whipped. And so he was, for Lord Gerold was too sick to interfere, and Ser Tion his heir loved his lady with a passion and refused her nought.”

– Bit more detail about Wendwater Bridge: “The rebellion came to an abrupt and bloody end at the Battle of Wendwater Bridge, when a charge by the king’s knights broke the Golden Company and sent Bittersteel fleeing, and Ser Duncan the Tall of the Kingsguard slew Daemon III Blackfyre.” Still would like to learn more about what happened there.

– Apparently, Ellyn Reyne “made one final attempt to cling to her place, declaring that she was with child by Ser Tion, but when the moons turned and her belly failed to swell, she was seen to be a liar.” Lord Toad was much amused.

– And it looks like she lost some real power: “no longer was she allowed access to the Lannister gold, nor called to council, nor included in decisions and deliberations, and though Lord Gerold permitted her to attend when he held court, she was not allowed to speak.”

– Lord Gerold picked a real keeper for Ellyn’s next husband: “A wallowing walrus of a man,” Lord Toad called him. “If bellies were brains, he might have been the wisest man in all the west.”

The Laughing Lion

– contrary to his portrait in the book, apparently Tytos “was no warrior. Though a squire as a youth, he was never knighted, and whilst he loved tourneys, it was always as a spectator, never a participant. A plump boy, he became a fat man, for he had a great fondness for cheese, cakes, and beer.”

– Ouch. Gerion did not like his dad. Apparently Tytos would have made a better innkeep and Lord Toad a better lord.

– as we might expect, Lord Denys Marbrand was one of Tytos’ only supporters.

– Tytos’ reign is even worse than we thought: “Corruption became widespread, as offices and honors were bought and sold, and taxes and duties and levies due to Casterly Rock increasingly went astray. Pirates from the Stepstones appeared in the waters offshore to prey upon merchantmen coming and going from Lannisport, and reavers from the Iron Islands harried the coast, carrying off wealth and women.”

– Apparently his wife was made of sterner stuff; Tywin taking after his mom.

– We learn a lot more about Jason Lannister: “A fierce child, he grew into a prideful, quarrelsome youth with a fiery temper. Though often openly scornful of his elder brother himself, he was quick to take umbrage when others disparaged Lord Tytos. At fourteen, he got a serving girl at Casterly Rock with child, and sired his first bastard. At fifteen, he deflowered Lord Stackspear’s maiden daughter, getting her with child as well. Lord Tytos, in a rare display of firmness, insisted that his brother marry the girl (most believe this was done at the behest of his wife, the Lady Jeyne) only to have the poor girl die in childbirth. Anxious to avoid further scandals and further bastards, his lordship and Lady Jeyne allowed Jason only a fortnight to mourn, then compelled him to wed again, this time to Lord Prester’s daughter Marla. Though twice the age of her new lord husband, she would give him three trueborn daughters and two trueborn sons in the years that followed. And even Maester Belden confessed himself relieved when Jason Lannister departed the Rock to live with his lady wife at Feastfires.”

– Wow. “Lord Farman of Fair Isle began to build a fleet of warships to defend his coasts against the ironmen, in defiance of Lord Tytos, who did not wish to give offense to the Greyjoys of Pyke. Three landed knights and a petty lord whose lands lay near the border between the westerlands and the Reach swore fealty to House Tyrell, declaring that Highgarden offered them more protection than Casterly Rock. Lords Jast and Falwell, embroiled in a private quarrel, decided to settle the matter with a melee rather than seek a ruling from the Lion’s Mouth. Nine men were killed, twenty-seven maimed and wounded, and still the quarrel raged on. Lord Stackspear doubled the taxes on his smallfolk, though Lord Tytos forbade it, then hired a company of Volantene sellswords to enforce his onerous exactions.” No wonder Tywin cracked down so hard.

– This is new and important: “Not long after [Genna’s bethrothal], it was whispered about Casterly Rock that the lad and his father been heard shouting at each other in Lord Tytos’s solar. Some swore that Tywin had even struck his sire, though the truth of that was never proved. But within the fortnight, Lord Tytos dispatched his heir to King’s Landing, to serve as a cupbearer at King Aegon’s court.”

– Much more info about the leadup to the Rains of Castamere: “At her urging, Lord Tarbeck expanded his domain by buying the lands of the lesser lords and landed knights about him… and taking by force the holdings of those who refused to sell. Some of those thus dispossessed went to Casterly Rock for justice, but Lord Tytos shrugged off their complaints, or else refused to see them. Meanwhile, Lord and Lady Tarbeck built roads and septs and holdfasts, and brought ever more knights, archers, and men-at-arms into their service. Walderan Tarbeck had supported twenty household knights before his marriage to Ellyn Reyne; by 255 AC, that number had swollen to five hundred.”

– Those dispossessed apparently went to Aegon V, Aegon V commanded Tytos to do something about it, Tytos sent his father-in-law, and “Denys Marbrand and his knights were still two days ride from Tarbeck Hall when the Red Lion fell upon his camp in the night, slaying hundreds, amongst them old Marbrand himself.” Then Raynald “appeared at court with his easy smile and sly tongue, to make obesience before the Lion’s Mouth. Lord Marbrand’s death had been a “tragic misunderstanding,” Ser Reynard said; his brother had believed he was attacking a band of outlaws and robber knights. He offered sincere apologies and a blood price to House Marbrand… whereupon Tytos Lannister pardoned the Red Lion and the men who rode with him, and for good measure, absolved Lord and Lady Tarbeck as well.” Apparently, this may have happened b/c as Kevan was squiring for the Red Lion, Tytos feared he’d be a hostage.

– No wonder Aegon V intervened: “Even those houses that had hitherto remained leal to Casterly Rock went their own way now, for Lord Tytos had proved himself unwilling or unable to enforce justice or punish malefactors, even those who slew men in his service. A score of private wars broke out across the west, as rival lords strove for land, gold, and power. Outlaws, broken men, and robber knights became a plague upon the land. Genna Lannister was carried off to the Twins and married to a Frey. Apprentices rioted in Lannisport, Quellon Greyjoy and his ironmen smashed Lord Farman’s fleet and plundered Fair Isle, septons and begging brothers began to preach openly against House Lannister and “the Lord of Misrule,” and all the while the Reynes and Tarbecks grew ever richer and more powerful.”

– Ser Jason Lannister was either slain by Maelys or by a flux.

– Pycelle was a Tywin fan before it was cool: “Those who beheld these proud young lions on the battlefield might rightly wonder how such could ever have sprung from the loins of the quivering fool beneath the Rock,” Grand Maester Pycelle wrote scornfully in his Observations Upon the Recent Blood-Letting on the Stepstones.”

– More info about Tywin’s campaign in the West: “All those lords who had engaged in private wars during the previous decade were summoned to court, to have their disputes adjudicated by their liege lord….Moreover, the lords of the west were commanded to feed and shelter Ser Kevan’s “collectors” as they made their way from castle to castle.” Hmm…restoring order or robbing their own vassals?

– Walderan Tarbeck didn’t know who he was dealing with: “I will have the fat fool soiling his breeches and the boy leashed and muzzled before I take my leave of them,” he told his lady wife…Ser Tywin allowed him to bluster and threaten and make his demands, then had him consigned to a dungeon “until such time as you give up the lands you have stolen, and repay every speck of gold my lord father lent you.”

– Wow. The Prester and Lannisport Lannisters are seriously DTF: “captured three Lannisters (along with two sons of Lord Prester, and half a dozen common girls who had met them in the wood by Feastfires for purposes of dalliance)” I’m shocked Tywin ever gave Stafford Lannister a command after that.

– Ok, this explains Tywin’s victory a bit more. “Lord Marbrand of Ashmark, Lord Prester of Feastfives, and a dozen lesser lords joined him on the march with their own levies, swelling his numbers.”

– OTHO, Tywin’s clearly going beyond the rules of war here: “Lord Walderan Tarbeck was wounded and taken alive, with two of his sons from his second marriage (the only surviving son from his first marriage had died during the battle). “Well, you have us, boy,” Lord Tarbeck told Ser Tywin when he was led before him. “We’re worth a good ransom, as I am sure you know. Ask what you will, my lady wife will pay.” “With our own gold,” Ser Tywin reportedly replied. “No, my lord. I think not.” Whereupon he gave a command, and watched cold-eyed as Lord Tarbeck and his sons were beheaded.”

– AHA! “My brothers are coming, and their claws are just as long and sharp as yours.” So it’s Ellyn’s line, not Roger’s.

– Ok, here’s a very different outcome to the siege: “Ser Tywin sent his men-at-arms surging forward with ladders and grappling hooks and battering rams instead. The fighting lasted less than an hour, accounts agree. As the ram smashed through the castle’s main gates, two other gates were opened from within, and the Lannisters came swarming through. Those who fled were spared; those who fought were put to the sword. Ellyn Tarbeck herself was taken with her children, and thrown from the window of the castle’s tallest tower, to strangle kicking at the end of a noose.” So which is canon?

– “the last Lord Tarbeck,” a three year old thrown down a well by Amory Lorch at Tywin’s command.

– I KNEW THE REYNES HAD MORE THAN 2,000 MEN! Roger rode with less than a quarter of his strength – i.e, >8,000 men. Damn right the Reynes were overmighty vassals.

– Also, the battle seems much more even: “The battle that ensued was a closer thing than might have been expected, for the Lannisters had not formed up and the suddenness of the attack took them by surprise. If Lord Reyne had only had more heavy horse, his knights might well have been able to cut their way through to where Ser Tywin’s banner flew above his command tent. But there was too much distance to cover and too many men between them.”

– So Tywin starts his campaign with 3,500 men. By the time he gets to the night battle, he’s up to 6,000-10.000. By the time of the siege of Castamere, he’s up to 12-20,000, as “the Lords Westerling, Banefort, Plumm, and Stackspear with their levies, arrived at Castamere.”

– More info about Castamere: “Designed for defense, the mines at Castamere had never been taken. There were only three ways down into them, all cramped, narrow, twisting, and studded with deadfalls, pits, and murder holes. Two armored knights, standing side by side, could hold the largest tunnel against a thousand, for attackers had no way around, and if they tried to cut their way past, defenders would be pouring boiling oil and pitch down on them from murder holes above as they fought.”

– Raynald’s terms seem more insulting here. Full pardon and Tywin’s brothers as hostages, but apparently he had food and water for a three year siege. Apparently Roger offered single combat.

…

And that’s it. Everything else is the same.

Is Cersei’s “Golden Bank of Lannisport” notion really a good idea? From the text is always assumed it was another silly, unattainable pipe dream like her thought about building a new castle across the river???

It’s an incredibly good idea. Casterly Rock has an enormous, enormous amount of gold that’s sitting in the vaults not doing anything or at most being used for the Lannister war machine and nonproductive political loans. If you turn it into the liquid reserves of a bank, through the magic of fractional reserve banking, you can create many, many times more money than is in the Rock while still retaining a fairly conservative reserve rate (i.e, what percent of your reserves aren’t lent out so that they’re on hand to pay depositors who want to access their money).

The Lannisters lent 3 million gold to Robert Baratheon without blinking, paid off Jaehaerys II’s war debts without breaking a sweat. Their yearly income is at least a million a year, given how much they gave to Robert on a yearly basis. Forbes thinks that they have around 2.1 million gold in the Rock; I’ve seen estimates of up to 200 million gold. As a max figure, based on 6,000 years of earning a million a year (not considering any interest), they may have around 6 billion gold dragons in the vaults of the Rock.

So let’s take an average of these estimates and say they have 2 billion gold saved up. To begin with, that 2 billion equates to 380% of Westeros’ GDP. If they lent it out at a relatively conservative 10% reserve rate, they’d generate 20 billion in deposits and 17 billion in loans. In other words, just by putting the money into circulation instead of sticking it under a big rock, the Westerosi economy would grow by almost 4,000%.