Tag: the red wedding

Steven Xue Asks: Why didn’t Tywin purge Robb’s allies post Red Wedding?

I’m sure you will eventually cover this somewhere down the road, but I have to ask. After the Red Wedding wouldn’t it have been more beneficial in the long term if Tywin had agreed to Joffrey’s wishes on purging Robb Starks former allies?

I know Tywin believes “if your enemies bend the knee you must help them to their feet otherwise nobody will bend the knee to you”. I for one believe in this doctrine as well but I feel that many of the former rebels may still feel very bitter towards the Lannisters for all the grievances they have suffered because of them. So even though they have since the Red Wedding reaffirmed their allegiance to the Crown, there’s no guarantee that most if not all of them will rebel again if given the chance.

Even though the Riverlords and Northern lords have been crushed at the Twins and now possess very limited military strength, they are still in a position to cause the Crown much trouble if opportunity arises. With Lannister power now weakening, many Riverlords especially in the current political climate would want to avenge themselves of the first wedding as well as any other transgressions by the Lannisters, which means they will not only rebel openly but also do it by rallying behind any of the Lannister’s enemies whether they be a Stark, Tully or any of the pretenders to the throne. 

I know it would have been more costly and even looked upon unfavorably but in the long run don’t you think that it would have been more sound to have done what Joffrey wanted and eliminated the houses that had followed the Starks in rebellion and most likely still secretly oppose the Crown, while also giving their seats to nobles who are loyal to the Lannisters?  

Well, let’s start with a very important factor in this decision: Robb Stark left the Riverlands part of his army behind when he went to the Twins, because he was planning on returning to the North: “aside from her brother Edmure’s modest retinue of friends, the lords of the Trident had remained to hold the riverlands while the king retook the north.”  These Riverlords have 11,000 soldiers between them. 

And while the Lannisters and Tyrells together have the manpower to destroy these remaining forces, their forces are split between many fronts: initially they have to retake Dragonstone and retake Storm’s End from Stannis, then the Tyrells send men to besiege Brightwater Keep, then the Tyrells send men to threaten King’s Landing if anything happens to Margaery, then the Golden Company lands, etc. And keep in mind, a lot of the Lannister forces demobilize  when Tywin’s body is sent back to the Rock.

So the best example of why the Lannisters didn’t do this is the second Siege of Riverrun, where poor Daven is trying to coordinate a military operation with only 1,500 Westermen under his command:

You’ve seen our numbers, Edmure. You’ve seen the ladders, the towers, the trebuchets, the rams. If I speak the command, my coz will bridge your moat and break your gate. Hundreds will die, most of them your own. Your former bannermen will make up the first wave of attackers, so you’ll start your day by killing the fathers and brothers of men who died for you at the Twins. The second wave will be Freys, I have no lack of those. My westermen will follow when your archers are short of arrows and your knights so weary they can hardly lift their blades.

Without the Riverlords, that first wave (which is what really demoralizes Edmure) doesn’t exist and instead the assault will have to go with Freys and Westermen leading the way and maybe the assault fails. 

Which brings me to the ultimate point: yes, on paper, the Lannisters and the Tyrells could completely destroy the armed strength of the Riverlands. But when you back someone into the corner, they fight like a trapped rat, and that pushes up the casualty rate. Just look at what happened at Dragonstone, where a token force of men killed a thousand Westermen. Now imagine that happening again and again in dozens of sieges across the Riverlands.

Do you think Sybelle Spicer pimped out her daughter? I find it suspicious that pretty maiden daughter was attending to Robb and not her mother or the maester.

theculturalvacuum:

travllingbunny:

Why would Sybelle want her daughter to sleep with Robb or marry him? Her family wouldn’t have been in trouble with Tywin just because he took their castle. She didn’t need to fear repraisals just for that. Why would she deliberately cause trouble for her family?

How was anyone to know for sure that 1) Robb would marry Jeyne just because he slept with her, 2) that would necessarily lead to the Red Wedding, which would require a lot of things to go exactly a certain way, including Robb, Catelyn and others acting exactly as predicted?

The idea that the whole thing was some complicated conspiracy orchestrated by Tywin and Sybelle strikes me as 1) unlikely, as it requires a lot of anticipating the actions of various people, 2) an example of assigning Tywin incredible, almost godlike powers of planning, control and anticipation of events (fandom also does that with Varys, as with the theory that Varys put Shae in Tywin’s bed), and 3) an attempt by the fandom to relieve Robb of responsibility for his actions, and hoist it all on the Evil Foreign Witchy Woman.

The far more likely scenario, I think, is that Robb slept with Jeyne, through a conspiracy of no one but teenage hormones and heightened emotions, decided to marry her because he thought that was the right thing to do, and Sybelle naturally feared her family getting Castamered by Tywin, so she agreed to stop her daughter from getting pregnant, in exchange for protection for her family.

Seriously, the idea that some one in Sybelle Spicer’s position would WANT her daughter to sleep with the rebel lord that just conquered her castle is…. what. Congratulations for taking Jaime’s sexism and racism at face value, I guess.

Why would she do this? Because she magically knew that Robb was one of the very few men in Westeros that would have acted the way he did? (Presumably because she’s one of those Evil Foreign Witchy Women, as @travllingbunny said.) If this was a plan it was absurdly risky. All she was likely to end up with was a daughter who already had no dowry who would probably be almost impossible to marry to anyone.

Sybelle is an abusive piece of shit, but her actions are literally the only reason any of her children got out of this alive. Most people agreed Robb’s cause was doomed, even at the end of aCoK when the lovebirds would have gotten married. Wishing her death for it is a very ugly thing to say.

As for the OP original question. No one in-universe seemed to think it was odd that Jeyne nursed Robb rather than the maester. Catelyn’s pretty sharp, she would have commented if that was usual. Maybe the maester had lots of patients to deal with and only did the things that required his expertise while Jeyne did all the fevered brow wiping and stuff. Who knows. But I don’t think it’s any kind of smoking gun.

Sorry I haven’t gotten round to this earlier, but here goes. 

Why Would Sybell Want Jeyne to Sleep With Robb? 

At the time that the affair in question happened, Robb was an unstoppable warrior-king who had, for all intents and purposes, conquered the Westerlands, in that he had destroyed two of their armies and was now roaming the Westerlands without opposition, sacking whatever and wherever he wanted. (Look at what happened to Castamere, Nunn’s Deep, and the Pendric Hills, or the people who owned the thousands of cattle Maege Mormont “requisitioned,” or whoever got in the path of Lords Glover and Karstark along the northern coast) Meanwhile, Tywin is losing the war badly – more than 2,000 lost at the Whispering Woods, another 8,000 at the Camps, another 10,000 at Oxcross, however many thousand Tywin lost between the Green Fork, the retreat from the Green Fork, the bushwhacking in the Riverlands, the Westerlands raided, King’s Landing threatened.

”Pushing” Jeyne into his bed at worst protects the family against the very real threat that they will be put to the sword in the same way that the Lannisters did to House Darry, for example. (And it’s not like Robb doesn’t have bannermen around him like Rickard Karstark who would be down for some retaliatory executions…) At best, it gives the Westerlings one of the best positions in the new regime if Robb wins the war. 

Sybell doesn’t need to have magic powers, just a willingness to play the odds, and an ability to hedge her bets. By making her deal with Tywin at the same time that she “pushes” Jeyne into Robb’s bed, she turns her potential weakness – Tywin isn’t exactly rewarding to people who fail him – into a source of strength, because now Jeyne is a bargaining chip she can use to bargain with Tywin to protect the family in case he wins instead. And while it’s a less valuable chip absent the marriage, it’s a valuable chip nonetheless. 

Does Tywin Need “incredible, almost godlike powers of planning, control and anticipation of events”?

No, because Tywin was already in communication with Walder and Roose. This is where the timing of the Red Wedding and the logistics and negotiations needed to set it up becomes very important. As I argued here, the deal (including the Freys, Boltons, and Lannisters, because all three have to do their part) had to have been done before the Battle of Duskendale (i.e, before Arya X of ACOK), because that battle is necessary for the Red Wedding to take place.* Moreover, Roose gives the order before the news breaks about Robb sleeping with Jeyne, and it’s telling that somehow the news gets all the way to Harrenhal by way of “a bird from the Twins” before it gets to Riverrun despite Riverrun being 300 miles closer to the Crag. 

*if we’re looking for an earliest possible start-date to when the conspiracy started, I’d peg it to Catelyn V of ACOK, where she finds out that Roose Bolton has married Walda Frey. 

To me, this suggests that, because Sybell was in communication with Tywin, he leaks the information to Walder to get Walder off the fence. (How else do we explain how Walder knew ahead of anyone else?) This also means that Walder was already part of the conspiracy before the Freys were dishonored, as “he would have searched for some way to disentangle himself from a losing cause sooner or later.”   

So what does this all mean for Tywin? It means he doesn’t need godlike powers, all he needs is to know the character of Walder Frey (a man he’s known since he was ten years old): he knows that Walder is a peevishly proud man who’s incredibly insecure about his family’s status, especially when it comes to marriages, and he knows from their correspondence that Walder wants to get out of the Stark camp, and he knows from universal repute that Walder is notoriously cowardly when it comes to committing himself. 

In fact, as I have said before, it doesn’t really show Tywin in as good a light as people think. Up until this point in the War of Five Kings, he has been out-thought and out-fought by the Young Wolf at every single point, and has only just managed to scrape himself from the verge of total defeat thanks to Tyrion’s (and Littlefinger) swift thinking. And his master-stroke relies on a complete fluke: his rival taking a stray arrow and landing in the bed of one of Tywin’s vassals. 

Does This Theory Buy Into “Jaime’s sexism and racism”?

I don’t think it does. We know from the text that Sybell and Tywin made a deal regarding Jeyne through extensive communication:

racefortheironthrone:

I don’t think she ordered Jeyne to sleep with Robb, because A. the odds of Jeyne agreeing to do that, even if it was necessary to save their family, were really low, and B. her modus operandi is usually to lie to her daughter and use drugs instead. 

At the very least, I think Sybell ordered Jeyne to care for Robb, thinking that caring for a handsome conqueror king might cause her to fall prey to the Florence Nightingale Effect. But given that Sybell’s grandmother was Maggy the Frog, and that Maggy may well have taught her how to make “cures and love potions and the like,” along with the recipe for moon tea, it’’s quite possible she drugged either or both of Robb and Jeyne to “make certainty doubly sure.”

And I’m very certain that she did so after negotiating her deal with Tywin, which is incredibly cold-blooded. While some pretty awful things are going to happen in the Prologue of TWOW, I hope her death at Lady Stoneheart’s hands is the silver lining. 

“I made certain of that, as your lord father bid me…”

“House Westerling has its pardon, and your brother Rolph has been made Lord of Castamere. What else would you have of us?”

“Your lord father promised me worthy marriages for Jeyne and her younger sister. Lords or heirs, he swore to me, not younger sons nor household knights.”

Given Tywin’s legendary tightfistedness, I think that this is a hell of a lot for Sybell to have gotten just for ensuring that Robb didn’t sire an heir. I think the price is right if breaking Robb’s Frey alliance is added into the pot. 

However, to the extent that this theory plays into the Evil Matriarch trope, it’s baked into the text – the fact that Jaime despises Sybell while letting his father off the hook is sexist and racist (and classist), but the event is a matter of fact.

Moreover, from a meta perspective, I think it has to be asked why, if Robb and Jeyne were purely a matter of chance, GRRM felt it necessary to inform us that Sybell’s grandmother was Maggy the Frog and that, in addition to telling the future, Maggy dealt in “cures and love potions”? One could argue that Maggy the Frog dabbles in the gendered trope of the Wicked Witch and the mystical foreigner, but that doesn’t change the fact that the author added it into the text when he didn’t have to. 

After all, plenty of highborn ladies have made use of moon tea without any association to Essosi Maegi – not only is it made by maesters for the ladies they serve, but Cersei finds women who can provide abortions when Robert gets her pregnant. So if all Sybell was doing was making sure that Jeyne didn’t get pregnant after the fact, GRRM could have explained this to the reader without reference to Maggy the Frog. 

Ultimately, I think it comes down to whether you think someone as cooly calculating as Sybell would have left something this vital to her family’s survival to chance or not. I lean to the latter.