Do we know how the weather in the Reach compares to weather in the North during Westerosi wintertime? Presumably, southron regions are still relatively warmer than northern regions, but I don’t believe GRRM specifically addresses the issue.

Here’s what GRRM has to say:

And, by the way, does it snow in the South during the winter?

Yes, some times, in some places. The Mountains of the Moon get quite a lot of snow, the Vale and the riverlands and the west rather less, but some. King’s Landing gets snow infrequently, the Storm Lands and the Reach rarely, Oldtown and Dorne almost never.

So the Reach rarely has snow even during the winter. 

Would House Rowan of Goldengrove need the permission of House Tyrell to build a ring road like you suggested in your Economic Developments series? Or could they do it on their own while giving their liege lords a heads up about what’s happening?

I don’t know whether you need permission to build a road (as opposed to building a castle, where you definitely do), but my guess is that House Rowan would need the permission (or more likely, a license) from their liege lord to build on lands other than those of themselves and their own vassals. 

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So in the case of a ringroad meant to connect the Ocean Road to the Rose Road by way of Goldengrove, at the very least you’re going to need the permission of the Oakhearts of Old Oak, quite possibly the Cranes of Redlake (depending on how far south their lands go), and definitely the Caswells of Bitterbridge, and given how large those open plains are I would guess some more houses. 

Do you think Highgarden ever tried to build a fleet of its own to be stationed at the mouth of the Mander or the Shields? To lessen its reliance on the Arbor and Oldtown for a navy

It does have a fleet on the Shield Islands:

The most telling blow was struck by King Garth VII, the Goldenhand, King of the Reach, when he drove the ironmen from the Misty Islands, renamed them the Shield Islands, and resettled them with his own fiercest warriors and finest seamen to defend the mouth of the Mander…

Soon after, he turned his attention to the sea and drove the last ironmen from their strongholds on the Shield Islands. Thereafter he resettled the islands with his fiercest fighters, granting them special dispensations for the purpose of turning them into a first defense against the ironborn, should they return. This proved a great success, and to this day the men of the Four Shields pride themselves on defending the mouth of the Mander and the heart of the Reach against any and all seaborne foes…

Most seagoing vessels dared not sail beyond Highgarden, but longships with their shallow draughts could navigate as far upstream as Bitterbridge. In ancient days, the ironborn had boldly sailed the river road and plundered all along the Mander and its vassal streams … until the kings of the green hand had armed the fisherfolk on the four small islands off the Mander’s mouth and named them his shields.

Two thousand years had passed, but in the watchtowers along their craggy shores, greybeards still kept the ancient vigil…Warhorns would echo across the waters, from Greenshield and Greyshield, Oakenshield and Southshield, and their longships would come sliding out from moss-covered stone pens along the shores, oars flashing as they swarmed across the straits to seal the Mander and hound and harry the raiders upriver to their doom.

They’re longships rather than galleys, but there’s 50 or more of them. Perhaps not enough to take on the Iron Fleet, although they did a fine job against Quellon Greyjoy, but enough to slow it down and allow the Redwyne Fleet to mobilize…if Euron hadn’t tricked them.

Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: The Reach (Part IV)

Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: The Reach (Part IV)

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credit to ser-other-in-law
In the previous section, I looked at how House Gardener responded to the Andal Invasion of the Reach through a masterful use of assimilation that resulted in a cultural and political regeneration that made the Reach one of the leading contenders in the Great Game of Westeros…
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Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: the Reach (Part III)

Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: the Reach (Part III)

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credit to ser-other-in-law Introduction: Last time, we saw how a succession of frighteningly single-minded and capable monarchs turned the Kingdom of the Reach from a petty kingdom ruled from a hillfort into a powerful and dynamic state that could reshape the map of southern Westeros and defeat its regional rivals singly and in combination. In this part, we shall see how this state confronted the…

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Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: The Reach (Part II)

Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: The Reach (Part II)

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credit to ser-other-in-law
Last time, we discussed the geography of the Reach, and the pre-history of Garth Greenhand and how it structured the polity that House Gardener would build. In this essay, we’ll look at how House Gardener went from ruling a fortnight’s ride from the walls of Highgarden to the masters of the Reach.
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Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: The Reach (Part I)

Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: The Reach (Part I)

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credit to ser-other-in-law Hey folks, so this essay is looking like it’s going to be as long as the Westerlands essay if not longer, so I decided to pre-emptively break it up into pieces so it’s easier to read (and write, to be honest). Part I covers the geography and prehistory of the Reach, Part II will cover the rise of House Gardener and the construction of the Reach as a polity, Part III…

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Reach Economic Development Plan

(I know I said Dorne was next, but you go in the direction the muse points)

The nice thing about doing development policy for the Reach is that you’ve got a lot to work with – the Reach is highly productive, densely-populated, and quite wealthy. However, despite these natural advantages, there are some glaring examples of missed opportunities. 

Step 1: Harnessing the Land

The great strength of the Reach is in its incredibly fertile soil, so we begin by playing to our strength, focusing our efforts on making sure that the farmers of the Reach are at their most prosperous, so that House Tyrell can be as well. 

This begins with constructing a Mander-to-Blackwater Canal. It’s something I’ve talked about before(link), but the advantages are so clear that it’s kind of mind-boggling that it hasn’t been built yet. King’s Landing needs huge supplies of grain, the Reach is the major source of grain in Westeros; Oldtown is tied for the largest commercial entrepot in Westeros, and yet the journey from Oldtown to Essos (or vice versa) is easily twice as long as the journey from Plankytown or Gulltown or White Harbor or King’s Landing. 

A canal linking the two rivers would expand the Reach’s, well, reach enormously, by reducing the time-to-market from around 21 days from the Reach to King’s Landing to 8 days. 

  • To begin with, this would allow the Reach to dominate the agricultural market on both coasts of Westeros and the Free Cities, shipping not only more perishable goods like wine but produce and grain (products where a few day’s difference can mean the spoilage of huge amounts of goods). 
  • Moreover, it makes the Mander the natural commercial highway of Westeros – leaving aside the fact that no foreign merchant in the world is going to take the longer and dangerous route across the Sea of Dorne to trade with the west coast, the speed advantage of ships vs. carts means that internal trade will gravitate towards the Canal, because why take five and a half months overland from Gulltown to Lannisport when you can take the Canal and get your goods there in 13 days? 
  • Finally, it massively increases the Tyrells’ power at court. With the capitol’s trade passing through my canal, with Tyrell grain able to undercut any competitors from the Reach or the Riverlands, and with travel to and from the Reach decreased in time, it’s much easier to project both soft and hard power w/r/t the King and Small Council. 

Equally importantly, once the Canal is built, it becomes an enormous moneymaker for the Reach. Taking the port of London for a historical example, in 1613 the port of London brought in 109,000 pounds in customs duties (this was well before the explosion of commerce that would see the port bringing in 1.26 million a year in 1710 and so on and so forth) – that works out to 87,200 dragons annually in revenue. That’s a staggering amount of money on top of what House Tyrell already earns from its lands and feudal taxes, which means it can be put to use instantly. 

That money would help to capitalize a Land Bank of Highgarden. This would essentially be a kingdom-level central bank, which with 87,000 dragons annually as its reserve (to say nothing of House Tyrell’s normal tax and land revenues, or deeds to House Tyrell’s lands and real estate) would produce 872,000 dragons in deposits and 741,000 in loans – and that sum is going to increase dramatically as the reserve keeps growing thanks to our canal. So this land bank has all of the sudden made House Tyrell the equal of House Lannister in income…unless the Lannisters start their own bank (more on that when I get to the Westerlands). 

Here I’m going to borrow from the Populists, and link the Land Bank to a sub-treasury system. The basic idea is that farmers would have the right to sell their crops to a public warehouse at a guaranteed minimum rate in exchange for an official letter of credit, which they could then redeem for their crops again if prices rose. It works on several levels: 

  • first, it increases and stabilizes farmer’s incomes and their access to credit, while massively expanding the Land Bank’s reserves by a huge factor (forget the Lannisters, I’m now the richest House in Westeros by far); the classic Tyrell style of doing well by doing good. 
  • Second, it allows for the stabilization of agricultural prices. If food prices falling is going to damage the incomes of peasants and lords alike (including that of House Tyrell), the sub-treasury’s minimum ensures that a bumper crop benefits farmer and consumer both. If a sudden spike in food prices would lead to famine, House Tyrell is here to save the day (our pleasure really, sure you’ll return the favor some day) and making itself the indispensable force across a continent’s economy.  
  • third, it massively increases House Tyrell’s influence within and without the Reach. Within the Reach, the sub-treasury’s bargain is too good to turn down – which now means that the whole of the smallfolk now have a direct connection and dependence on House Tyrell, as will many lords who’ll be all to happy to turn their excess crops into cash in hand. Except now House Tyrell has the power to seize your crops and capital, rouse your smallfolk and vassals into rebellion, if you cross me. Outside the Reach, our influence over the price of food is now so strong that we would make Petyr Baelish’s proposed manipulations in the Vale look like child’s play.  
  • fourth, it provides for an explosion of credit to invest in increasing productivity. Want to build a barn or pens for livestock or a silo or a mill, buy more livestock or a new plow, or some new seeds for a more diverse crop or more fertilizer for a better yield, or maybe drain some marshy land or clear a wood for more farmland? The Land Bank of Highgarden is happy to extend a loan on easy terms. As prospers the land, so prospers the fisher king.  

Step 2: Industry and Infrastructure

So now I’m hugely rich and have money to invest, it’s time to diversify the Reach’s economic base. To begin with, textiles – with my immense and more productive farmland, the less fertile land can be turned over to large-scale flax production for linen. The foothills of the Red Mountains are perfect for herding sheep for wool. Combine that with all of the lovely rivers and setting up watermill-powered factories for the production of linen, thread, and woolen cloth. Once you’ve got that up and running, time to do some industrial espionage – see if you can copy (or bribe craftsmen who know how to make them into immigrating to the Reach) Dornish silks and satins, Lorathi velvet, tapestries from Qohor and Myr, fine woolens and lace and carpets from Myr. They don’t need to beat them for quality as long as I can bring to market more cheaply than the competitor thanks to the Canal.

Next, there’s probably good minerals in the Red Mountains – so let’s get some mines running, poach some craftsmen from Qohor or the Westerlands to build up metalworking. Not that I’ll necessary need an arms industry right now (in the mean time, they can make pots and pans), but I don’t want to be dependent on imports from the Westerlands if I might need to go to war with them. 

Third, infrastructure. The Canal is good, but the Hightowers would pay nicely for an extension linking the Mander to the Honeywine to diminish the threat that the Canal would shift trade away from Oldtown. Moreover, as a matter of security, boom chains on the Mander and the Honeywine would provide protection against Ironborn raiders and improved control over canal traffic. 

The Reach has a fair few roads, but it could stand to use more. In the north, a ringroad that connects Old Oak, Goldengrove, and Tumbleton would allow for swifter reinforcements on my northern border, and enhance overland travel and trade; in the south, a ringroad connecting Sunflower Hall, Uplands, Horn Hill, Ashford, and Grassy Vale (as well as Oldtown and Highgarden) would do the same for my southern border. Finally, bridges – while I want to keep the Canal clear (with one exception), for better movement I want a stone bridge over the Silverhill river by Goldengrove, over the Blue Byrne by Grassy Vale, and over the Cockleswent by Ashford. 

Step 3: Institution-Building

With all of this increasing wealth and productivity and increasing industry, I’ll need some cities to put people in. To a certain extent, I’ll need to play this by ear – don’t know where concentrations of agriculture, commerce, and industry will warrant cities, precisely – but I do have two cities particularly in mind.

First, a port-city at the mouth of the Mander (Canalmouth? Mandertown? New Oak?). In addition to quite a lot of harbor facilities to service the Canal trade, this port city will be designed around a shipyard, as well as a sizable garrison to protect the boom chain (I will make very sure that the port and shipyard are behind and not in front of the chain). In addition to providing repairs and refits for passing ships, the purpose of this shipyard is to build a proper navy for the Shield Isles (as well as a decent riverrine navy with plenty of transports). A few dozen longships is not sufficient for my major northern naval defenses, so I want to build up a decent-sized fleet of at least 20 if not 50 ships of the line – House Redwyne may need to be mollified by creating a reserved Redwyne post somewhere in the chain of command – Admiral of the Northern Navy? Lord/Castellan of the city? Master of the Shipyard? Depends what they’re willing to give me for the privilege. 

Second, a city across the river from Highgarden – to be known as Newgarden – with a swinging bridge across the Mander, with its . The first purpose of this city and this bridge is to act as the central customs point for the Canal (although subsidiary points will be needed at Canalmouth and at Tumbleton), and I’ll probably need to build an artificial harbor to host the canal trade as they pay their due. The second purpose is to give a location for the Great Council of the Reach – which I want for the same reasons that the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands does, but even more so because it’s the chivalry and pageantry-obsessed Reach, and a Versailles strategy will be super-effective. Throw some epic Grand Balls, hunts, jousts at Highgarden proper – but only if you’re important enough to get an invite across the bridge – to keep everyone currying for favor, but to keep everyone busy, stuff Newgarden full of gambling dens, race tracks, Braavosi theater troupes, all the singers you can shake a mandolin at, go wild with it. While I’m at it, recreating the Order of the Green Hand a la the Winged Knights is a great idea – but why not shoot for 700?

Next, time to invest my money in human capital. First things first, time to start sponsoring students at the Citadel – but my object here is to produce large numbers of half-maesters who I can use as administrators, experts, and above all, teachers. The Citadel might get stroppy, but as long as all of them have to get their accreditation at the Citadel and we agree that a maester’s chain is necessary for the top management jobs. Second, establish a network of free schools – probably can’t manage one per village, but one per town/major castle should work – with a competitive examination system to get into the Civil Academy at Newgarden I’ll establish to train and recruit the vast army of bureaucrats to run my new institutions. 

At the same time, can’t neglect the practical subjects – I’ll want a Naval Academy at the Arbor (go where the ships are) to train up professional naval officers, a Military Academy at Old Oak (close to the Shield Isles and the northern borders) to do the same for the land forces, and an Engineering Academy somewhere close to the new industries by the southern border.

If I get this right, after Renly’s assassination, Randyll Tarly rides back to Bitterbridge and puts to death any foot there who were sworn to a house now aligned with Stannis. Considering that Renly had about 100K men at Bitterbridge, and brought 20,000 cavalry to Storm’s End, that implies that Randyll had a significant portion of the remaining 80,000 men to death. Isn’t that a worse massacre than anything else in the books?

This is something that happens almost completely off-page, but it’s really really unclear what exactly happens and I’ll be following up on this in Tyrion X of ACOK.

There’s a big bit of confusion in that Renly claims to have 80,000 men at Bitterbridge when Catelyn meets him there (60,000 foot and 20,000 cavalry), but in the next Catelyn chapter has him claiming to have 100,000 foot in addition to his 20,000 cavalry.

Then Randyll Tarly rides for Bitterbridge. The next time we see the Tyrell army after Blackwater, they have somewhere between 50-70,000 men, with most estimates coming out to 60,000. 

Now, given these wildly varying possibilities, it could be that almost no-one died at Bitterbridge – if Renly had 60,000 foot and Tarly grabbed the lot and just killed some officers. If Renly had 100,000 foot, then Tarly must have killed 40,000 men, which would be the largest single death total in any battle in ASOIAF world history. 

Even for a massacre, 40,000 is improbable, so let’s see if we can firm some things up. Given that we know Mace brings up his 10,000 from Highgarden, that would suggest that only 50,000 of the Tarly army at Blackwater came from Bitterbridge. To me, this suggests that Renly was full of shit, and had 80k rather than 100k men, 60k men were left at Bitterbridge, and Tarly had 10,000 men – mostly Florents, but also Fossoways, Cranes, etc. – killed. Which would put the massacre up there with Oxcross, but not way ahead of it.

However, this leaves some open questions: 

  • given that the Reach has 100,000 men on its own, and the Stormlands at least 25,000, if Renly only had 80-90,000 men tops, where are the remaining 35,000? 
  • How many of them were Stormlanders? Given that the Stormlords divided on whether to support Renly, I think only 12,500 men fought for Renly from the Stormlands, which would suggest that there’s another 12,500 who might fight for or against Aegon.  
  • If that estimate is right, then 77,500 men of the Reach fought with Renly, which would mean there’s another 22,5000 men in the Reach going toe-to-toe with Euron in addition to Garlan’s 30,000. (which makes Euron’s crusade absolutely insane – even with one hand tied behind it’s back, the Reach can field 50,000 men against him)
  • What’s going on with the cavalry? The Reach should have 27,000 cavalry by itself, and the Stormlands another 6,750. Now, even with only half of the latter backing Renly, that’s 30,0375 cavalry – but Renly only had 20,000? Why did 10,000 “knights of summer” agree to hang back with Mace?