If Tywin drops dead before the Purple Wedding, who gets the Rock?

If Tywin died suddenly before AGOT starts, who would inherit Casterly Rock? Jaimie is out, so would it go to Tyrion or Kevan?

ravenking1771 said:Hey there I saw the recent question about the Casterly Rock inheritance and I wanted to know how firmly did the medieval aristocracy adhere to inheritance I.e. Tyrion is Tywin eldest eligible make child and thus from a legal perspective his heir but Tywin does not consider him and if Tywin died before the events of the novel Tyrion would no doubt be challenged if not passed over by his family, so I wanted know how firmly did these governments respect inheritance rights?

Since I’ve gotten a couple questions about this, I figure I should probably consolidate them into one response rather than repeat myself. It depends on what Tywin set out in his will, and the balance of political power when it comes to both the claimants and whoever might enforce and/or recognize the validity of the will.

Certainly, Tyrion would have a very strong claim under Westerosi law; he is the oldest eligible male child of the deceased, and he had done nothing that would make him ineligible (like joining the Night’s Watch or the Citadel or the Faith).

However, whoever Tywin named in the will would also have a claim, and that claim would be buttressed by that person’s own lineage – if it’s Cersei, proximity would no doubt be stressed as well as the will; if it’s Kevan, then he’d be pointing to being the son of Tytos as well as Tywin’s brother as well as the wil. And so on.

But the balance of power is important: if Tywin dies pre-AGOT, Cersei is going to lobby for her own line (whether for herself or one of her children), and Robert might give in or he might give it to Tyrion out of spite, or he might want to give it to Kevan b/c Kevan fits his mental model of a strong Warden of the West (in the same way that he didn’t want a sickly boy to hold the Wardenship of the East). At the same time, Jon Arryn’s wishes would play a large role in that situation; he’s more of a traditionalist, so he might want it to go to Tyrion because Andal law says so and wills that go against the law lead to civil war and disorder.

If Tywin dies pre-Purple Wedding, it depends when exactly. If it’s after the Battle of Blackwater, Cersei is Regent and Tyrion has lost his handship, so he’s at a disadvantage. If it’s before the Battle of Blackwater, Tyrion has a significant advantage.

However, a lot would depend on how the Lannister lords at the Rock or at Harrenhal or at King’s Landing decide to jump: do they take their cues from Kevan as the oldest male Lannister on the spot, and does that mean he gets to play kingmaker or does he go for the Rock himself? Is their misogyny stronger than their ableism or vice versa? Do they fear that Tyrion’s heirs would inherit both the Rock and Winterfell, or that Cersei’s children would inherit both the Rock and the throne and/or Storm’s End?

How come widowed Anya Waynwood is still in charge of Ironoaks and her son is still Ser Morton, not Lord Morton. I assume she was a Waynwood by birth, but it still seems like she would lose her status as ruler of Ironoaks as soon as Morton was of age, if her husband died before then. It means she was somehow the lord when her husband was alive, which I thought would be a huge no-no, especially in the stuck-up Vale, unless it was absolutely necessary.

It is an interesting question, and Lady Waynwood is not the only case like this – there’s Barbrey Dustin (albeit without an heir), Arwyn Oakheart (whose youngest son was Ser Arys), the Hornwood Crisis, Delonne Allyrion (who has an adult, and indeed married, son), Larra Blackmont (who has two I think adult children), and so on and so forth.

Trying to reconcile this with what we know of Westerosi succession laws is tricky. In some cases, I would guess that a lot of those situations are ones in which an heiress of a house continues to rule until her death (same as a male lord would do), whereas the widow of the previous lord would normally hand over the title to the lord’s heir (although, as we see with Lady Hornwood and Barbrey Dustin, there are widow’s use–rights in cases where there isn’t a clear heir.

Could you explain the proximity arguments for the Estermonts and Florents, please? Why does marrying a family member into the royal family give you a claim on the throne? And if the Estermonts and Florents have a claim through proximity (presumably from their marriages to Steffon and Stannis), shouldn’t Cersei also have a (better) claim through her marriage to Robert?

So here’s my way of thinking, and there’s no reason necessarily to think it’s better than anyone else’s (thinking of @nobodysuspectsthebutterfly, @goodqueenaly, and @warsofasoiaf here):

If what matters is who the closest blood kin of the king is, then the Florents are kin to Princess Shireen and inlaws to Stannis (if you accept that Stannis and Shireen were the lawful kings/heirs to the Iron Throne). Next most recently, the Estermonts are kin to Robert, Stannis, and Renly through Cassana Estermont, regardless of how you see the succession going from that point on. After that, the Targaryens are kin to Robert, Stannis, Renly through Rhaelle Targaryen, as well as to all previous kings.

Cersei’s blood relationship to Robert Baratheon is much more distant than any of those, going back 90 years Gowen Baratheon and Tya Lannister, but even then that pairing died without successful issue, and 120 years ago when an unnamed Baratheon woman married a male Lannister and had issue. It’s highly unclear whether Cersei has any blood connection to Robert.

Now, there is an argument that she’s the mother of Joffrey and Tommen, but…A. their parentage and kingship was publicly put in question and Cersei has already admitted to incest in one case, and B. claims rarely go up the generations in that way, and C. even if the Lannister branch was chosen, Targaryen and Great Council precedent would suggest that a male cousin rather than Cersei herself, would inherit.