Anon Asks: Daeron II’s Dornish Deal

You have argued that Daeron pushed his deal with Dorne too hard and too fast, of whic I am in agreement with. If you were his counselor, what political advice would you give him regarding the deal?

As I’ve argued, Daeron’s main problem was that he negotiated a treaty which created the impression that the Dornish had gotten the better end of the deal, indeed, the marriage of Daenerys sort of implies that the Dornish won the war.

As with any sort of treaty, there are winners and losers, and Daeron’s mistake is that, by then filling his court with Dornishmen, he left the losers (the Marcher lords, the Reach, Aegon IV’s loyalists) from the treaty out in the cold and feeling alienated from the monarchy.

If I was his adviser, I would have urged him to try to sweeten the deal for the Westerosi, possibly by extending the same benefits that the Dornish got to the various Lords Paramount and some of the same benefits to the more important Lesser Houses. I would have also urged him to spread around royal patronage so that those who had lost out from the treaty and the end of the Dornish Wars would have been part of the administration – as the saying goes, better someone in the tent pissing out then outside the tent pissing in.

Moreover, given the issue of martial character, I would also have looked for some way to release the pent-up aggression of the nobility in a more controlled direction, to give them something to do besides feel resentful and bored. So look for minor wars – fight pirates on the Stepstones, help the North put down the Skagosi rebellion, send troops against Raymun Redbeard, sponsor mercenary companies to go fight in the Free CIties – and spend a chunk of the peace dividend on tourneys, so that the knights are distracted and happy.

Steven Xue asks: Slave armies of Essos. Are they unrealistic?

I find it hard to imagine how places like Slaver’s Bay and Volantis have their armies made up mostly of slave soldiers. Not only do these places employ slaves as bodyguards or cannon fodder but have entire armies comprised of slave soldiers. They also have slaves making up the police force of their cities (such as the Tiger Cloaks).

Now I’m not much of a historian but I find this notion ridiculous because in the ancient world slaves were rarely used in battle, only the most desperate masters would arm their slaves and give them permission to kill. This was mostly due to the fear that giving slaves weapons may embolden them to turn on their masters. Besides the Unsullied who are conditioned to be 100% loyal, there is really no reason why the governments of Volantis or the city states of Slaver’s Bay would trust their slaves enough to allow them to make up their military or police force given the immense risk that would impose.

Also the Volanteen fleet that’s sailing to Meereen which has its rowers made up of slaves is another example of the author converging from real history. In the ancient world oarsman weren’t normally slaves and more often than not were made up of freemen or citizens. This was because rowing (especially on warships) required a considerable amount of skill and not just a strong back. The image of prisoners or slaves chained to the oars of warships and forced to row while being whipped is a work of Hollywood fiction.

I wouldn’t necessarily call them unrealistic, per se. Exaggerations, certainly, but there are historical examples of slave armies. The Mamluks were slave-soldiers who served in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and India. Likewise, the Janissaries were slave-soldiers who served the Ottoman Sultans from Persia to the gates of Vienna.

The simple fact that it’s difficult to trust slave soldiers doesn’t mean people won’t necessarily use them. The Mamluks for example were ferociously effective in fighting off the Crusaders in Egypt and Syria – despite the fact that they seized control of the Egyptian Sultanate in the process. The Janissaries served the Ottomans well in battle, but they also overthrew Sultans whose policies they disliked or who didn’t pay them enough money.

ikoke submitted:

Continuing with the numbers issue in the South, Tarly,Rowan & Loras salvaged 5000 from Renly’s 20000 horse at Storm’s End. So that likely represents the mounted strength of Horn Hill, Goldengrove & a few other Reacher houses. The Florents,Cranes,Varners, Fossoways, Mullendores, Willums & Meadowes switched to Stannis. Combined their mounted strength should amount to at least 5-6000. Of Mace’s 10000 reserve, around 3-4000 should be knights/squires. We know that 2 of the richest & most powerful houses-the Hightowers & their vassals(Beesburys, Costaynes) & the Redwynes had stayed away from Renly’s host.These houses should be able to field around 3-5000 cavalry at least. Add to it the houses Renly names as his supporters but never show up(Shermer, Dunn,Footley, Blackbar, etc.) and the ones he never named (Peakes, Vyrwells, Ball, Roxton, Leygood, Ambrose, Ashford etc.) , and we can account for another 5-7000 cavalry at least. So all in around 25-27000 Reacher horsemen accounted for.at least . Some other forces would have been left to guard the castles.
So if we assume that at least 5-6000 Reachers switched over to Stannis, that would mean that at most 9-10000 Stormlanders joined his cause at Storm’s End. Whatever infantry Caron, Errol, Morrigen, Penrose and others mobilised would have been left behind at Bitterbridge when Renly sped off to Storm’s End, meaning the Stormlander foot had no choice but to serve under Randyll Tarly when he returned and seized control at Bitterbridge. A good % of these men are probably in the Riverlands & KL even now. So that leaves around 10000 of Stormlander military strength unmobilized (assuming that 9-10000 SL horse was matched by at least 10-15000 SL foot in Renly’s force, and that the SLs can field 30-35000 men all in all).

Let’s work through this, with Anonymous’ correction re: the Stormlands taken into account.

If Renly had the full support of both the Reach and Stormlands, his army should have been 140,000 strong, with 38,000 cavalry. As it stands, Renly seems to have around 80,000 (with 10k at Highgarden, so 90,000 or 65% support) with 20,000 cavalry (which roughly fits the ratio) – although he’ll claim to have 120,000 with 20,000 cavalry (which is way below the ratio).

Now, we know that Loras and Tarly grabbed 4,000 cavalry from Storm’s End, which includes House Tarly, House Rowan, and House Tyrell. Can’t forget this last part – the Tyrells brought a lot of manpower to Bitterbridge and Storm’s End, which is reflected by the ubiquity of their banners.

I’m going to use a rough estimate that the Houses have an average of 2,000 soldiers each, with ~540 being cavalry. So the seven Reach Houses (Florents, Cranes, Varners, Fossoways, Mullendores, Willums, Meadows) who see service with Stannis should equal roughly 3,780 cavalry. We know that 13 Stormlander Houses (Morringens, Estermonts, Carons, Conningtons, Errols, Hastys, Bollings, Horpes, Peaseburys, Fells, Wyldes, Grandisons, and Wensingtons) see action with Stannis. That’s roughly 7,020 men.

Together, that accounts for 10,800 of the 16,000 who join Stannis at Storm’s End. Now, there are a couple of possible explanations here:

Some of the Reacher Houses mentioned by Renly but who we never got verification of being present or having switched sides (Bulwer, Costayne, Hightower, Cuy, Blackbar, Shermer, Dunn, Footly) were actually present and switched sides. Most of these I’m pretty skeptical of, but I’ve actually changed my mind on the Cuys, especially after Loras killed Ser Emmon the Yellow, it might make sense that they flipped to Stannis. That would add another 4,320, although I’m thinking more like 540.
Some of the Stormlander Houses mentioned here but who don’t show up later with Stannis (Tarth, Penrose, Morrigen, Selmy) did fight with Stannis but just didn’t get mentioned. That would add another 2160 men.
My estimates for House size might be off. Some of these houses are clearly bigger than 2,000: the Fossoways are actually two separate Houses and are clearly pretty numerous given Lothor Brune’s accomplishments at Blackwater Bay, the Carons as the leading Marcher House are probably pretty big (especially if Renly gave them a seat on the Rainbow Guard), ditto House Crane. So if they’re more like the Freys than the Florents, that might add another 1,620 men.

That gets us pretty close, up to 15,000 men.

So….if around 4,000 Reachermen joined Stannis, that suggests that there’s another 23,000 Reach cavalry around. 4,000 of them went with Loras and Randall, so that leaves us with 19,000 to account for. Using the same 27% rule, around 2,700 of them were with Mace, leaving 16,300 unaccounted for.

If we look at the Reach houses that are either mentioned by Renly and don’t seem to have been there (Bulwer, Costayne, Hightower, Blackbar, Shermer, Dunn, Footly, Caswell), or the significant houses that seem to have been left out (Vrywel, Redwyne, Appleton, Ashford, Chester, Serry, Grimm, and Hewett of the Shield Islands, Cordwayner, Graceford, Merryweather, Peake, Roxton), that gives us 11,340.

So really there’s only around 5,000 unaccounted for, and House size could easily explain that.

The Cause of Skagos’s Rebellion

In WOIAF, it is mentioned that King Brandon IX forbade the Skagosi the sea whereas before they described as accustomed to crossing the Bay of Seals to trade with the rest of the North. It was their raiding that led to Brandon forbidding them the sea.
Do you think the Skagosi rebellion in Daeron II’s reign might have been over regaining the right to have access to the sea, ie build and keep ships, breaking their centuries-long isolation?

Well, they were accustomed to raiding as much as trading – they didn’t do one then the other, they did them both at thre same time.

It’s as good a bet as any, and until we get to Davos’ TWOW chapters, we’re not going to know what motivated the Skagosi.

Aegon’s Crowning

The army he currently has is not enough to take and hold King’s Landing. If he tries, there is still the force along the Mander with Garlan to consider to crush him against the walls of King’s Landing. He needs to gather a large enough force to be able to oppose any other challengers. It is going to take a while to convince everyone he is the real Aegon, and gather enough support.
Nothing in the vision explicitly says it is King’s Landing, so that isn’t a certifiable fact at the moment. King’s Landing isn’t the only city in the realm, there is also Oldtown. The first Aegon was crowned in Oldtown, and Oldtown supported Aegon II. The High Septon could come to Aegon, and crown him in the Starry Sept, the original seat of the Faith, with Aegon following in the footsteps of his namesake. They are trying to portray Aegon in the image of Aegon I. One doesn’t need to sit the Iron Throne to be king. Aegon the Conqueror was called “king” before the Iron Throne was even forged. To be called “king” one simply needs to be crowned.
I think in the second Dance, Oldtown will be Aegon’s base while Harrenhal will be Dany’s.
Also, there is one inconsistency. You say Dany is the younger queen that will cast Cersei down yet Aegon will take King’s Landing from Cersei, or rather cast her down. In that case the younger queen would be Arianne not Dany. So if Dany is the younger queen to cast Cersei down, then that means Aegon won’t take King’s Landing, since by the time Dany arrives Cersei will have already been cast down.

Aegon has 10,000 men. The Martells have 25,000. Many of the Stormlords have stayed out of the war. And there are friends of the Gold Company in the Tyrells’ ranks. That’s all he needs.

Garlan’s army is a thousand miles away and busy fighting the Ironborn. They’re not coming to help.

Aegon is not going to Oldtown – King’s Landing is the capitol, the Iron Throne is the symbol of a unified monarchy, the High Septon he needs to crown him is in King’s Landing, and it’s less than 500 miles away. He’s not going to go 1400 miles out of his way.

I think Cersei’s going to be awaiting trial at Aegon’s pleasure, thinking Arianne was the queen she didn’t see coming, when Dany arrives. It’s a classic prophecy fake-out, the same way that Tyrion isn’t the valonqar.