In regards to the War of 5 or 4 Kings, what do you think about this legalism? Balon’s claim actually predates all of the others, by a decade & folk were aware of it (notably Robb in his offer, sent while Renly was alive) even if he hadn’t held a coronation. His argument to Robert was that he wasn’t a traitor, since his duty to the throne died with Aerys and Robert seems to have tacitly accepted that, by demanding the missing oath. Thus Balon’s reign would date from Robert’s death.

I think Balon mooted that particular claim by himself:

“Quellon Greyjoy still sat the Seastone Chair when Robert Baratheon, Eddard Stark, and Jon Arryn raised their banners in rebellion. Age had only served to deepen his cautious nature, and as the fighting swept across the green lands, his lordship resolved to take no part in the war. But his sons were relentless in their hunger for gain and glory, and his own health and strength were failing. For some time his lordship had been troubled by stomach pains, which had grown so excruciating that he took a draught of milk of the poppy every night to sleep. Even so, he resisted all entreaties until a raven came to Pyke with word of Prince Rhaegar’s death upon the Trident. These tidings united his three eldest sons: the Targaryen were done, they told him, and House Greyjoy must needs join the rebellion at once or lose any hope of sharing in the spoils of victory. (emphasis mine)

Lord Quellon gave way. It was decided that the ironborn would demonstrate their allegiance by attacking the nearest Targaryen loyalists.“

(WOIAF)

The Iron Islands could not have simultaneously been independent prior to Robert’s Rebellion (Balon’s argument following his defeat at Pyke) and have joined the rebellion prior to the Battle of the Mander (Balon’s argument in 283 AC) – because that battle post-dated the news of the Battle of the Trident, and Robert’s acclamation would have been part of that news.

And this, along with so many other reasons, is why Balon Greyjoy is utter bullshit.

Was the idea of a regency for Aegon VI and Rhaenys ever really explored by the rebel faction? Rhaegar may have been more agreeable to a surrender if he knew his children would succeed him, and it was possible for him to take the black. Or did Robert just really want the throne that badly?

No, the idea was not explored, because the Rebel Alliance acclaimed Robert as their king – note the order of operations there – and once you’ve crossed that particular Rubicon, there is no alternative to removing House Targaryen altogether.

And I should emphasize, because I’ve responded to a few of these, but the political logics of a lot of these alternate scenarios are not sound. Even if Rhaegar was willing to take the black (unlikely), and Rhaegar’s supporters would accept that (unlikely), it’s not a good idea for the Rebel Alliance to support a regency for Aegon VI, because infant kings grow up and have excellent motives to revenge themselves against the people who overthrew their fathers.

Writing a fanfiction on this scenario if you’re interested but I wanted to ask again what your objection was to Ned installing Jon as King in the aftermath of Robert’s death? Your argument aboht Viserys made sense but as a half Stark with Ned as regent wouldn’t that solve the potential for recrimination?

It solves some of the problems – a King Jon would probably not want to revenge himself on the Starks in the name of his father – but not all of them. For one thing, this doesn’t exactly do much for the Tullys, Baratheons, Arryns, and Lannisters, who don’t have the same protection of blood.

But there’s a larger political problem: the rebellion was launched as an argument that the actions of King Aerys and Prince Rhaegar were so contradictory to the feudal social contract that they had forfeited their right to rule. Naming Jon as King goes back on that in a really egregious fashion: by acknowledging Jon as Rhaegar’s heir, you’re accepting his abduction of Lyanna as legitimate, which the Baratheons are going to have a problem with. Moreover, as Rhaegar was Aerys’ heir, you’re accepting that Aerys was a rightful monarch.

Moreover, the Rebel Alliance had already acclaimed Robert as their King. So now Ned has forsworn his oath to Robert to put his nephew on the throne, which is going to be seen as both an unspeakable personal betrayal and dishonor for Ned and as rank self-interested treason in the eyes of the political class. Ned’s now going to have to deal with the Baratheons and the Arryns and Tullys who’ve sworn their oaths to Robert and his heirs, and he’s going to have to deal with the Lannisters who have every reason to fear a Targaryen restoration.

So the only scenario I see coming out of this is a bloody and entrenched civil war, likely leading to the fracturing of the realm as the Vale, Riverlands, and Stormlands declare for King Stannis, Dorne and possibly the Reach splits the Targaryen loyalist faction (because the Dornish are not going to recognize anyone of Lyanna’s line ahead of Elia’s), and the Westerlands and Iron Islands are all out for themselves.

And since Ned’s not an idiot, he’s going to see this coming the moment he finds out about Jon’s birth and that’s why he would never name Jon King.

How did Robert manage to keep the seven kingdoms together following his rebellion? The 7Ks only became united under the Targaryen dynasty, so once that ended, wouldn’t it be more likely for them to break apart again after the Mad King’s demise? Why didn’t everyone suddenly start declaring independence again, instead of waiting until after Robert’s death?

There’s a couple different reasons:

The Southron Ambitions/Rebel Alliance: Robert had already won the allegiance of the North, the Vale, the Riverlands, and the Stormlands. That’s half the continent right there, and even more so when Robert marries Cersei and gets the Westerlands as well. So it wouldn’t be seven kingdoms again, it would be one massive kingdom and a bunch of smaller states trying to avoid reconquest.
Institutional Inertia: The Seven Kingdoms have been part of one consolidated monarchy for almost three hundred years, less so for Dorne. That’s three hundred years with very few wars by historical standards, internal trade, law and order, all that good stuff. So people are going to be somewhat wary of going back to being warring kingdoms, especially after a rather bloody civil war which they lost.
Targaryen Legitimism: even if the rest of the Seven Kingdoms wanted to start something, independence is unlikely to be the case because the Targaryens are still kicking around in Essos – as long as their kinsmen are available to be restored to the Iron Throne, the Martells aren’t about to declare themselves independent again.
Internal Politics: This leaves the Reach, and they’re probably the most viable candidate for an independent state given their large army and economy, although it wouldn’t be easy trying to defend themselves on the Westerlands, Riverlands, Crownlands, and Stormlands borders at the same time. But the problem is that the Tyrell claim on Highgarden runs through the Targaryens – if the Reach isn’t part of Aegon’s realm, that claim isn’t good any more and the “Oakhearts of Old Oak, the Florents of Brightwater Keep, the Rowans of Goldengrove, the Peakes of Starpike, and the Redwynes of the Arbor” have every reason to claim the Oakenseat for themselves.

Can you shed some light on your take on the whole R+L=J theory? What are your thoughts on the timeline with Rhaegar and Lyanna, and the rebellion? How do Ned and Ashara Dayne fit into it?

Well, R+L=J. It’s pretty clear. Timeline-wise, we learned a lot from WOIAF.

Rhaegar and Lyanna disappeared very close to the Tourney at Harrenhal – around 2-3 months close. Lyanna was in the area of the Gods Eye to be “abducted” because she was, in all likelihood, staying at Riverrun prepping for her brother’s wedding. Note that this timing almost certainly excludes Brandon from being Jon’s father, and probably excludes Ashara from being Jon’s mother with either Stark.

Here’s what I think happened with Ned and Ashara – I think the two of them fell for each other and hooked up at Harrenhal (Ser Barristan wasn’t at the tent at the time and probably jumped to the same conclusion that much of the fandom did, given Brandon’s rep). At the time, as Harwin points out, both of them were unmarried and a fairly good match – he was the second son of a Great House, she was the daughter of a Lesser House and no heiress. They probably hoped that they would get married shortly, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were actually betrothed or in the process of becoming betrothed.

And then things went to shit. Lyanna disappears, Brandon hulks out, Elia’s abandoned by her husband, then Brandon’s arrested, Rickard shows up for the trial, and both of them are dead. Suddenly, Eddard is a rebel on the run for his life and Ashara is trapped on the other side, torn between her loyalty to Elia and her love for Ned.

At some point in this process, a few things happen, and I’m not sure in what precise order they happen:

Ashara Dayne is sent home when she begins to show.
Ned returns to the South at the head of an army.
Elia and her children are taken from Dragonstone to Storm’s End. This must have happened after Ashara is sent away, because Ashara is not in King’s Landing during the Sack.
Rhaegar reappears with the Dornish troops.
Arthur Dayne reaches out to his sister for help with Lyanna’s pregnancy, and Wylla, a longtime retainer at Starfall, is sent to the Tower of Joy as midwife and nursemaid.
Ned and Ashara meet for the penultimate time, Ned finds out where Lyanna has been hidden.
Ned is told that he has to marry Catelyn Tully in order to fulfill the pact made by his father and keep the rebel alliance intact, and does so.
Ashara, now forsaken by Ned and carrying a bastard instead of a euphemistically-premature trueborn child, suffers a miscarriage.

Then comes the Trident, the Sack, and the lifting of the Siege of Storm’s End. His duty to Robert fulfilled, Ned is free to ride full-tilt for the Tower of Joy. He arrives, and he and his companions fight Ser Arthur Dayne, Ser Gerold Hightower, and Ser Oswell Whent. Only Ned, Howland Reed, and the servants (including Wylla) are left alive.

Ned takes Dawn back to Starfall and meets Ashara for the last time. The two of them are wracked with grief – for a lost child, for her brother, for his brother and sister and father, for the life together they cannot have. The pain and the guilt are too much for Ashara to bear, and she kills herself.

Ned remains at Starfall – rather than blaming him, the Daynes recognize his honor, their mutual loss, and the cruelty of fate – until Jon is ready to depart. The Daynes agree to keep his secret, and help spread the story that Jon is Wylla’s son, a story that Ned repeats to Robert in King’s Landing, and probably spreads on his boat-ride back to Winterfell via the Three Sisters.

Ned and Catelyn’s marriage, already a rocky start in which both are forced to put their family’s interests above their own personal desires, is further strained by Ned’s cover story.