I was refered to you by Goodqueenaly. “How exactly would Stannis go about repaying the Iron Throne’s debt to the Iron Bank, assuming he wins? Would he “nationalize” the Lannister’s assets as punishment for more or less making Westeros into hell on earth?”

Hi. You’re pretty much on the nose. As Stannis sees it, Cersei cuckolded and then murdered the King, which is treason twice over, Jaime is a kingslayer and a breaker of the King’s Peace, Tywin broke the King’s Peace and then attacked the King’s banner, and the rest of the family aided and abetted. 

So the first thing that happens without a doubt is that the Crown’s debt to House Lannister is cancelled – not defaulted on, but as another form of seizure of assets. That takes care of half of the Crown’s total debt. 

Next, Casterly Rock and its lands and incomes reverts to the Crown. It’s unlikely that Stannis holds it permanently – the Westerosi custom that one person should not have two great seats would probably sway him, as would the difficulty of governing two seats 800 or so miles away. Rather, I’m guessing Stannis would fine the Rock to clear the Crown’s debts to the Church and the Tyrells and the Bank, and then give the Rock to some loyal house. 

But the Rock could easily withstand that kind of penalty. Short of complete confiscation, Casterly Rock is going to be a power in the land, no matter who holds it. 

Don’t know if you’ve touched on this one before, but why do you think that the Kings of the Rock never adopted more advanced financial instruments? Tywin seems to pretty easily serve as a continental financier for the Iron Throne using his extensive gold reserves. But you don’t really see any state bank or IB-like reserve banking that would allow the Lannisters to create more functional wealth through lending and develop more extensive bureaucracy. They seem to just leave their gold in a vault.

Here’s why: because the Lannisters are noblemen and not merchants.

 A couple quotes on this point:

“A coin is as dangerous as a sword in the wrong hands.“

His uncle Kevan looked at him oddly. “Not to us, surely. The gold of Casterly Rock …”

“… is dug from the ground. Littlefinger’s gold is made from thin air, with a snap of his fingers.”

Lord Tywin had always held the Free Cities in contempt. They fight with coins instead of swords, he used to say. Gold has its uses, but wars are won with iron.

Tywin Lannister was a very intelligent, well-educated man of his class, but that class was of a warrior aristocracy. He wouldn’t have been educated in more accounting than was needed to understand what his steward and his maester were reporting to him, because book-keeping is for women and servants. And that stuff is basic household accounts, not business accounting. And no Lannister would ever, ever learn finance, because that’s for merchants, and merchants are a lesser class of people who are concerned about gold rather than glory, who care more for probity than for honor. Look at how the Spicers are looked down on for coming from people “in trade.” 

But I don’t want you to get the idea that Tywin was ignorant. It’s more about how he thought about money. Take a look at the essay I wrote about Tywin’s economic policy – Tywin’s father was looked down on because he loaned money to “common merchants,” even though that makes a ton of economic sense for the economy of the Westerlands, because it’s acting like a merchant. Tywin is a pretty classical mercantilist in a lot of ways – he wants to keep as much gold on hand as he can, because he thinks physical possession of gold makes you more powerful, he’s much more worried about getting his principal back than the income he might be forgoing in interest payments. And most of all, Tywin uses the gold of Casterly Rock for political purposes, not for economic purposes – he acts as Aerys II’s bank in order to make himself indispensable as Hand, he does the same thing for Robert in order to keep extending Lannister influence at court, etc. As the quote above points out, for Tywin, gold is a means, not an end in itself. 

Tyrion, in part because he’s unusually well-read and perceptive, comes the closest to breaking out of this mentality, especially when he becomes Master of Coin and starts taking a really close look at the royal accounts. And even he, one of the smartest men in Westeros, can’t quite grasp what Littlefinger’s been up to. 

And as I discuss in my “Who Stole Westeros?” essay here, Littlefinger is counting on this hole in the education of the Westerosi nobility to make his schemes work. Jon Arryn and men of his class don’t know about finance, so they wouldn’t think twice about what he was telling him about increasing revenues tenfold, and even if they investigated him, they wouldn’t understand what to look for. 

Do you think the Reynes and Tarbecks had an actual chance to topple house Lannister, if Tywin wasn’t as ruthless and competent?

Yeah, probably. Especially from the WOIAF, their total and combined forces were quite substantial compared to the forces that House Lannister could throw together – especially if you remove Tywin’s contributions from the picture. 

If I recall correctly from the extended Westerlands section, Tywin could pull together 3,500 men to fight the Reynes and Tarbecks, but the full might of House Reyne and their allies was more than 8,000 men.

So potentially, I could see a scenario where the Reynes are able to crush the Lannisters in the field and force Tytos to abdicate. The more difficult question is what they would have done after – governing after such a coup is a lot more difficult than most schemers realize. 

Westerlands v2.0

Earlier today, GRRM released a new sample, this time an extended version of the Westerlands section from WOIAF.

Knowing that some people are interested in such things, I decided to do a quick compare and contrast to see what new information we can learn:

Introduction:

– There’s a great little ghost story that got excised. Apparently. King Morgon Banefort was “supposedly a necromancer of terrible power,” who swore that he would “return from the grave to wreak vengeance upon them one and all.” King Loreon fed the body to his lions to prevent that, but the lions later broke free and slew three of his sons. 

– The Andal hostages that Tyrion III and Gerold II took in exchange for lands, titles, and marriages apparently were thoroughly indoctrinated to be loyal to the Lannisters, such that “now their blood runs gold,” and seem to have turned against their fathers, keeping the Andals from taking the kingdom. Clever.

House Lannister Under the Dragons:

– apparently, the Joanna Lannister who fought the Red Kraken was even more of a badass: “acting as regent for her young son, donned man’s mail to drive the Red Kraken from her shores, and later did much to reclaim Lannister glory and win favor with the crown, lending gold for the restoration of King’s Landing.”

– we learn a bit more about Tywald’s death, and learn that the Peake Uprising ended more conclusively than thought: “Pierced through with a spear as he clambered through the broken gates of Starpike, Tywald died in the arms of his twin brother Tion, who was serving as a squire to Prince Aegon Targaryen, King Maekar’s youngest son.” So Tion was Egg’s squire (man it would have changed history had Tion not died at Wendwater Bridge), Maekar died during the Storming of Starpike, which casts doubt on my assassination theory. And we learn that Ser Roger Reyne killed seven Peakes in retaliation for his father’s death before Aegon stopped him.

– Interesting. Apparently the Lannisters threw their weight behind Egg in the Great Council of 233: “The assembled nobles, swayed in no small part by the eloquence (and, some suggest, the gold) of Lord Gerold the Golden, ultimately awarded the Iron Throne to Prince Aegon.” Man, had Gerold or Tion not died, Egg would have had a much easier time of it.

– Apparently Tion chose to marry Ellyn Reyne, because “his brother had pleaded with him to “take care of Lady Ellyn” with his last words.”

Yikes, do not cross Ellyn Reyne. Apparently when the fool Lord Toad joked about the Rain of Reynes, “she commanded that Lord Toad be whipped. And so he was, for Lord Gerold was too sick to interfere, and Ser Tion his heir loved his lady with a passion and refused her nought.”

Bit more detail about Wendwater Bridge: “The rebellion came to an abrupt and bloody end at the Battle of Wendwater Bridge, when a charge by the king’s knights broke the Golden Company and sent Bittersteel fleeing, and Ser Duncan the Tall of the Kingsguard slew Daemon III Blackfyre.” Still would like to learn more about what happened there.

– Apparently, Ellyn Reyne “made one final attempt to cling to her place, declaring that she was with child by Ser Tion, but when the moons turned and her belly failed to swell, she was seen to be a liar.” Lord Toad was much amused.

– And it looks like she lost some real power: “no longer was she allowed access to the Lannister gold, nor called to council, nor included in decisions and deliberations, and though Lord Gerold permitted her to attend when he held court, she was not allowed to speak.”

– Lord Gerold picked a real keeper for Ellyn’s next husband: “A wallowing walrus of a man,” Lord Toad called him. “If bellies were brains, he might have been the wisest man in all the west.”

The Laughing Lion

– contrary to his portrait in the book, apparently Tytos “was no warrior. Though a squire as a youth, he was never knighted, and whilst he loved tourneys, it was always as a spectator, never a participant. A plump boy, he became a fat man, for he had a great fondness for cheese, cakes, and beer.”

Ouch. Gerion did not like his dad. Apparently Tytos would have made a better innkeep and Lord Toad a better lord.

– as we might expect, Lord Denys Marbrand was one of Tytos’ only supporters.

– Tytos’ reign is even worse than we thought: “Corruption became widespread, as offices and honors were bought and sold, and taxes and duties and levies due to Casterly Rock increasingly went astray. Pirates from the Stepstones appeared in the waters offshore to prey upon merchantmen coming and going from Lannisport, and reavers from the Iron Islands harried the coast, carrying off wealth and women.”

Apparently his wife was made of sterner stuff; Tywin taking after his mom.

– We learn a lot more about Jason Lannister: “A fierce child, he grew into a prideful, quarrelsome youth with a fiery temper. Though often openly scornful of his elder brother himself, he was quick to take umbrage when others disparaged Lord Tytos. At fourteen, he got a serving girl at Casterly Rock with child, and sired his first bastard. At fifteen, he deflowered Lord Stackspear’s maiden daughter, getting her with child as well. Lord Tytos, in a rare display of firmness, insisted that his brother marry the girl (most believe this was done at the behest of his wife, the Lady Jeyne) only to have the poor girl die in childbirth. Anxious to avoid further scandals and further bastards, his lordship and Lady Jeyne allowed Jason only a fortnight to mourn, then compelled him to wed again, this time to Lord Prester’s daughter Marla. Though twice the age of her new lord husband, she would give him three trueborn daughters and two trueborn sons in the years that followed. And even Maester Belden confessed himself relieved when Jason Lannister departed the Rock to live with his lady wife at Feastfires.”

Wow. “Lord Farman of Fair Isle began to build a fleet of warships to defend his coasts against the ironmen, in defiance of Lord Tytos, who did not wish to give offense to the Greyjoys of Pyke. Three landed knights and a petty lord whose lands lay near the border between the westerlands and the Reach swore fealty to House Tyrell, declaring that Highgarden offered them more protection than Casterly Rock. Lords Jast and Falwell, embroiled in a private quarrel, decided to settle the matter with a melee rather than seek a ruling from the Lion’s Mouth. Nine men were killed, twenty-seven maimed and wounded, and still the quarrel raged on. Lord Stackspear doubled the taxes on his smallfolk, though Lord Tytos forbade it, then hired a company of Volantene sellswords to enforce his onerous exactions.” No wonder Tywin cracked down so hard.

This is new and important: “Not long after [Genna’s bethrothal], it was whispered about Casterly Rock that the lad and his father been heard shouting at each other in Lord Tytos’s solar. Some swore that Tywin had even struck his sire, though the truth of that was never proved. But within the fortnight, Lord Tytos dispatched his heir to King’s Landing, to serve as a cupbearer at King Aegon’s court.”

Much more info about the leadup to the Rains of Castamere: “At her urging, Lord Tarbeck expanded his domain by buying the lands of the lesser lords and landed knights about him… and taking by force the holdings of those who refused to sell. Some of those thus dispossessed went to Casterly Rock for justice, but Lord Tytos shrugged off their complaints, or else refused to see them. Meanwhile, Lord and Lady Tarbeck built roads and septs and holdfasts, and brought ever more knights, archers, and men-at-arms into their service. Walderan Tarbeck had supported twenty household knights before his marriage to Ellyn Reyne; by 255 AC, that number had swollen to five hundred.”

Those dispossessed apparently went to Aegon V, Aegon V commanded Tytos to do something about it, Tytos sent his father-in-law, and “Denys Marbrand and his knights were still two days ride from Tarbeck Hall when the Red Lion fell upon his camp in the night, slaying hundreds, amongst them old Marbrand himself.” Then Raynald “appeared at court with his easy smile and sly tongue, to make obesience before the Lion’s Mouth. Lord Marbrand’s death had been a “tragic misunderstanding,” Ser Reynard said; his brother had believed he was attacking a band of outlaws and robber knights. He offered sincere apologies and a blood price to House Marbrand… whereupon Tytos Lannister pardoned the Red Lion and the men who rode with him, and for good measure, absolved Lord and Lady Tarbeck as well.” Apparently, this may have happened b/c as Kevan was squiring for the Red Lion, Tytos feared he’d be a hostage. 

No wonder Aegon V intervened: “Even those houses that had hitherto remained leal to Casterly Rock went their own way now, for Lord Tytos had proved himself unwilling or unable to enforce justice or punish malefactors, even those who slew men in his service. A score of private wars broke out across the west, as rival lords strove for land, gold, and power. Outlaws, broken men, and robber knights became a plague upon the land. Genna Lannister was carried off to the Twins and married to a Frey. Apprentices rioted in Lannisport, Quellon Greyjoy and his ironmen smashed Lord Farman’s fleet and plundered Fair Isle, septons and begging brothers began to preach openly against House Lannister and “the Lord of Misrule,” and all the while the Reynes and Tarbecks grew ever richer and more powerful.”

Ser Jason Lannister was either slain by Maelys or by a flux.

– Pycelle was a Tywin fan before it was cool: “Those who beheld these proud young lions on the battlefield might rightly wonder how such could ever have sprung from the loins of the quivering fool beneath the Rock,” Grand Maester Pycelle wrote scornfully in his Observations Upon the Recent Blood-Letting on the Stepstones.”

More info about Tywin’s campaign in the West: “All those lords who had engaged in private wars during the previous decade were summoned to court, to have their disputes adjudicated by their liege lord….Moreover, the lords of the west were commanded to feed and shelter Ser Kevan’s “collectors” as they made their way from castle to castle.” Hmm…restoring order or robbing their own vassals?

– Walderan Tarbeck didn’t know who he was dealing with: “I will have the fat fool soiling his breeches and the boy leashed and muzzled before I take my leave of them,” he told his lady wife…Ser Tywin allowed him to bluster and threaten and make his demands, then had him consigned to a dungeon “until such time as you give up the lands you have stolen, and repay every speck of gold my lord father lent you.”

Wow. The Prester and Lannisport Lannisters are seriously DTF: “captured three Lannisters (along with two sons of Lord Prester, and half a dozen common girls who had met them in the wood by Feastfires for purposes of dalliance)” I’m shocked Tywin ever gave Stafford Lannister a command after that.

Ok, this explains Tywin’s victory a bit more. “Lord Marbrand of Ashmark, Lord Prester of Feastfives, and a dozen lesser lords joined him on the march with their own levies, swelling his numbers.”

OTHO, Tywin’s clearly going beyond the rules of war here: “Lord Walderan Tarbeck was wounded and taken alive, with two of his sons from his second marriage (the only surviving son from his first marriage had died during the battle). “Well, you have us, boy,” Lord Tarbeck told Ser Tywin when he was led before him. “We’re worth a good ransom, as I am sure you know. Ask what you will, my lady wife will pay.” “With our own gold,” Ser Tywin reportedly replied. “No, my lord. I think not.” Whereupon he gave a command, and watched cold-eyed as Lord Tarbeck and his sons were beheaded.”

AHA! “My brothers are coming, and their claws are just as long and sharp as yours.” So it’s Ellyn’s line, not Roger’s.

– Ok, here’s a very different outcome to the siege: “Ser Tywin sent his men-at-arms surging forward with ladders and grappling hooks and battering rams instead. The fighting lasted less than an hour, accounts agree. As the ram smashed through the castle’s main gates, two other gates were opened from within, and the Lannisters came swarming through. Those who fled were spared; those who fought were put to the sword. Ellyn Tarbeck herself was taken with her children, and thrown from the window of the castle’s tallest tower, to strangle kicking at the end of a noose.” So which is canon?

– “the last Lord Tarbeck,” a three year old thrown down a well by Amory Lorch at Tywin’s command.

– I KNEW THE REYNES HAD MORE THAN 2,000 MEN! Roger rode with less than a quarter of his strength – i.e, >8,000 men. Damn right the Reynes were overmighty vassals.

– Also, the battle seems much more even: “The battle that ensued was a closer thing than might have been expected, for the Lannisters had not formed up and the suddenness of the attack took them by surprise. If Lord Reyne had only had more heavy horse, his knights might well have been able to cut their way through to where Ser Tywin’s banner flew above his command tent. But there was too much distance to cover and too many men between them.”

So Tywin starts his campaign with 3,500 men. By the time he gets to the night battle, he’s up to 6,000-10.000. By the time of the siege of Castamere, he’s up to 12-20,000, as “the Lords Westerling, Banefort, Plumm, and Stackspear with their levies, arrived at Castamere.”

More info about Castamere: “Designed for defense, the mines at Castamere had never been taken. There were only three ways down into them, all cramped, narrow, twisting, and studded with deadfalls, pits, and murder holes. Two armored knights, standing side by side, could hold the largest tunnel against a thousand, for attackers had no way around, and if they tried to cut their way past, defenders would be pouring boiling oil and pitch down on them from murder holes above as they fought.”

Raynald’s terms seem more insulting here. Full pardon and Tywin’s brothers as hostages, but apparently he had food and water for a three year siege. Apparently Roger offered single combat.

And that’s it. Everything else is the same. 

Why don’t the Lannisters use their money as more of strategic advantage during the war of five kings? They hire Tyroshi sellswords and Vargo Hoat, so clearly they’re not opposed to using mercenaries. Nor is there a “code” against it in Westeros – Stannis hires Sallador Saan, and in TWOW he wants to hire the Golden Company. You’d think given his money Tywin would hire 10 or 20k sellswords and use them to fight Robb Stark. But we never hear about the Lannisters approaching the Golden Company etc.

They certainly did, but there’s a couple factors that prevented them from making full use of those resources in the phase of the War of Five Kings from the outbreak through to Blackwater:

  1. They’re on the wrong side of the continent, and Stannis and his navy stands between them and the Narrow Sea. So getting mercenaries to their army, and for that matter getting envoys to the Free Cities, would be rather difficult. 
  2. Stannis is competing with them for mercenaries. He’s hired around 3,000 already. And mercenaries are not a fully fungible product – mercenaries might be already under contract (the Golden Company was under contract with Myr, and given the then-impending war between Tyrosh and Lys, it’s quite likely a lot of companies had already taken up contracts with them), or be in some other region of Essos where it’s harder to contact them. As the WOIAF says, “when not employed by the three quarrelsome daughters, the sellswords oft seek to carve out conquests of their own.”
  3. The Golden Company is not really a possibility. Ser Jason Lannister died in the War of Ninepenny Kings, and Tywin, Kevan, and Tygett all fought with distinction against the Golden Company. Moreover, the Reynes and Tarbecks both fought for the Black Dragon in the First Blackfyre Rebellion, although they seemed to have reconciled with the Targaryens by the time of the Peake Uprising. 
  4. There’s a timing issue. At the outset of the conflict, Tywin wants to mobilize before everyone else to stack the odds in his favor – the same way he did in the Rains. That means attacking ASAP rather than waiting for mercenaries to go all the way around Westeros to join up with his army.

And then in the second phase, Tywin’s got the Tyrells he can call on, and a rather negative experience with mercenaries maiming his son.