Question

If Volantis was destroyed would that reroute traffic to slaver’s bay?

Probably not. Keep in mind, the economies of Essos are fairly specialized. In this case, the cities of Slaver’s Bay act as processors of the human raw materials that the Dothraki extract, and sell them to the Free Cities:

“For centuries Meereen and her sister cities Yunkai and Astapor had been the linchpins of the slave trade, the place where Dothraki khals and the corsairs of the Basilisk Isles sold their captives and the rest of the world came to buy.” (ADWD, Dany III)

Of the Free Cities, Volantis was their largest customer. Thus, Dany’s anti-slavery crusade has had two effects. First it’s terrified the slaveowners of Volantis into electing a tiger majority and going to war against free Meereen:

“The best calumnies are spiced with truth,” suggested Qavo, “but the girl’s true sin cannot be denied. This arrogant child has taken it upon herself to smash the slave trade, but that traffic was never confined to Slaver’s Bay. It was part of the sea of trade that spanned the world, and the dragon queen has clouded the water. Behind the Black Wall, lords of ancient blood sleep poorly, listening as their kitchen slaves sharpen their long knives. Slaves grow our food, clean our streets, teach our young. They guard our walls, row our galleys, fight our battles. And now when they look east, they see this young queen shining from afar, this breaker of chains. The Old Blood cannot suffer that. Poor men hate her too. Even the vilest beggar stands higher than a slave. This dragon queen would rob him of that consolation.” (ADWD, Tyrion VI)

The other effect that it’s had is to raise the price of slaves by massively cutting the supply. Hence why in ADWD, you see slavers being so greedy and reckless as to kidnap wildlings and try to sail through Braavosi waters, because the pure profit is worth the risk of being hanged.

Thus, if Dany attacks and captures Volantis, the economic effect will be to massively curtail the demand for slaves, by removing one of the biggest markets for slaves in all of Essos – because Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh aren’t big enough to pick up the excess. Which may be enough to break the slave system throughout Essos…

Why don’t migrations to Westeros leave anyone behind? There are no Andals or Rhoynar or Valyrians left in Essos, but in the real world there are plenty of Saxons still in Saxony. Is it just a coincidence, or are other Essos cultures particularly good at assimilating the stragglers?

I don’t know where you got that idea. There absolutely are those peoples still living in Essos, just changed somewhat due to 400 years of history going by. So if we go looking for the Andals, we find them in Pentos:

“Pentos is the nearest of the Free Cities to King’s Landing, and trading ships pass back and forth between the two cities on an almost daily basis. Founded by Valyrians as a trading outpost, Pentos soon absorbed the hinterlands surrounding it, from the Velvet Hills and the Little Rhoyne to the sea, including almost the whole of the ancient realm of Andalos, the original homeland of the Andals. The first Pentoshi were merchants, traders, seafarers, and farmers, with few of high birth amongst them; perhaps for this reason, they were less protective of their Valyrian blood and more willing to breed with the original inhabitants of the lands they ruled. As a consequence there is considerable Andal blood amongst the men of Pentos, making them perhaps our closest cousins.”

They just intermarried with the Valyrian colonists. But they’re still there, living in the same hill country that Hugor of the Hill did.

Likewise, if we’re looking for Rhoynar, we can find them on the Summer Isles, on Abulu the Island of Women, where “A few thousand of [Nymeria’s] followers
chose to remain behind, however, and their descendants remain on the Isle of Women to this day.” We can find them on the Stepstones, where “even now there are isolated pockets of Rhoynar on the Stepstones, claiming descent from those who were shipwrecked.” And more unhappily, we can no doubt find them in chains in the Volantene empire, tilling their ancestral fields to benefit the Old Blood.

If we’re looking for Valyrians, we have of course “eight of the Nine Free Cities are proud daughters of Valyria that was, still ruled by the descendants
of the original colonists who established themselves there hundreds or thousands of years ago. In these cities, Valyrian blood is still greatly prized.” Now, over 400 years, there’s going to be some change, and there’s a good deal of variation. So in Lys, they say that “here more than anywhere else in the known world the old Valyrian bloodlines still run strong…The blood of Valyria still runs strong in Lys, where even the smallfolk oft boast pale skin, silver-gold hair, and the purple, lilac, and pale blue eyes of the dragonlords of old. The Lysene nobility values purity of blood above all” whereas the Myrish interbred with another people: “Myrmen are believed by certain maesters to be akin to the Rhoynar, as many of them share the same olive skin and dark hair as the river people, but this supposed link is likely spurious. There are certain signs that a city stood where Myr now stands even during the Dawn Age and the Long Night, raised by some ancient, vanished people.” And of course, in Old Volantis, you have the Old Blood of the city who dwell within the Black Walls, such that “many Volantenes regard themselves as the natural and rightful successors to the dragonlords of old Valyria.”

And then at last you have Braavos, which from the beginning was a melting pot of every possible ethnicity in Essos:

“Since the escaped slaves came from many lands and held many faiths, the founders of Braavos created a place where all gods were given their due and decreed that none would ever be made paramount over another. They were a diverse people, whose numbers included Andals, Summer Islanders, Ghiscari, Naathi, Rhoynar, Ibbenese, Sarnori, even debtors and criminals of pure Valyrian blood.”

So there you have it.

Re. the Bearded Priests: Are you certain that the Norvosi magisters elected by the BP are from a commercial caste of nobility (Doesn’t the Upper and Lower cities of Norvos suggest a divide along different lines then just financial wealth?) and do you think this had any effect on Mellario’s reception in Sunspear’s court as the future princess of Dorne (ala Larra Rogare post-Dance)? TY.

Magisters are the wealthy and powerful of the Free Cities, which given the nature of the Free Cities’ economies overwhelmingly means merchants:

The true authority [of Lorath] resides with a council of magisters made up of nobles, priests, and merchants. Its isolation meant that the Lorathi were little involved in the events of the Century of Blood, save for those few who sold their swords to Braavos or Norvos.

[The Three Daughters] are mercantile cities, protected by high walls and hired sellswords, dominated by wealth rather than birth, cities where trade is considered a more honorable profession than arms. Lys and Myr are ruled by conclaves of magisters, chosen from amongst the wealthiest and noblest men of the city; Tyrosh is governed by an archon, selected from amongst the members of a similar conclave…

Her father, Lysandro Rogare, was the head of a wealthy banking family whose power waxed even greater following the alliance to the Targaryens. Lysandro assumed the style of First Magister for Life, and men spoke of him as Lysandro the Magnificent….Lysandro’s heir, Lysaro, spent vast sums in pursuit of power and fell afoul of the other magisters….

Two questions regarding your endgame: 1) Will there be a new monetary policy in Westeros such as the fiat system? 2) Will Westeros strengthen or weaken ties with Essos?

Not sure what you mean by my endgame…if you mean the end result of my Economic Development Plans, then here’s what I think:

Gradually. Note that pretty much all of my plans include the development of finance and banking. With that will come an expansion of non-metallic financial instruments being used in the economy: letters of credit, banker’s drafts, cheques, and bank notes. It will take a while for these things to spread beyond the relatively narrow confines of the urban bourgeoisie, however, even with an active state promoting the use of them by making them legal tender for taxes, for example.
Absolutely. Again, pretty much all of my plans involve expansion of commerce with Essos, albeit with a very keen eye toward climbing the value added ladder as quickly as possible. In the long run, it’s not good for Westeros to be a natural resources exporter only.

Some time ago, you theorized that Bittersteel could’ve conquered the Disputed Lands, as well as Myr, Tyrosh, and Lys. Do you think Daemon Targaryen would have been able to do that? He didn’t have a disciplined army like the Golden Company, but he had a dragon and a powerful fleet under the command of Corlys Velaryon.

Taking Myr, Tyrosh, Lys, and the Disputed Lands would be a prolonged affair – in addition to the naval campaign necessary to knock out their fleets, and the land campaign against the free companies they’re going to hire, the cities themselves will involve three major sieges, all of which are going to require siege works on land and a naval blockade to cut off the cities from resupply and reinforcement. And that’s assuming that everyone else – Braavos, Pentos, Volantis, etc. – stays out of it.

I don’t think Daemon himself had the discipline for it – as we saw with the Stepstones, Daemon doesn’t have the patience for sticking it out for a whole campaign, and other than Corlys, didn’t seem to have anyone around him capable of leading in his absence.

So while he’d definitely enjoy some early successes, I think he’d lose interest a year in, and then the war effort would completely collapse in his absence.

Re: Yunkai’s Peace Offer

Man, I’m annoyed when I miss a quote that could have been in an essay. From ADWD, Ch. 24:

“The Yunkishmen. The envoy they sent to woo Volantis…wishes us to be the fourth and offers twice what Myr was paying us, plus a slave for every man in the company, ten for every officer, and a hundred choice maidens all for me.”
“That would require thousands of slaves. Where the do the Yunkishmen expect to find so many?”
“In Meereen.”

Yeah, something tells me Yunkai’s peace offer wasn’t genuine when they were paying their sellswords with the proceeds of sacking Meereen.