Re your first question: I think I’ve discussed this before (check the archives, or the guest appearances I did on History of Westeros), but I think it was a combination of any number of the following factors:
Bloodraven agreed with Daeron’s politics/thought that Daeron was the better administrator.
Bloodraven thought that disinheriting Daeron and ending the legitimate male line of House Targaryen was dangerous and destabilizing.
Bloodraven did not want Bittersteel anywhere near government.
Boodraven owed Daeron for protecting him and his mother at court when he was a child, so was returning the favor.
Boodraven saw a chance for advancement under Daeron, parlaying his support into becoming Master of Whispers and other offices.
Highly useful. Let’s take a look at the Band of Nine:
THE OLD MOTHER: A pirate queen. SAMARRO SAAN, THE LAST VALYRIAN: A notorious pirate from a notorious family of pirates from Lys, with the blood of Valyria in his veins. XHOBAR QHOQUA, THE EBON PRINCE: An exile prince from the Summer Isle, he had found his fortunes in the Disputed Lands and led a sellsword company. LIOMOND LASHARE, THE LORD OF BATTLES: A famed sellsword captain. SPOTTED TOM THE BUTCHER: Hailing from Westeros, he was captain of a free company in the Disputed Lands. SER DERRICK FOSSOWAY, THE BAD APPLE: An exile from Westeros, and a knight with a black reputation. NINE EYES: Captain of the Jolly Fellows. ALEQUO ADARYS, THE SILVERTONGUE: A Tyroshi merchant prince who was wealthy and ambitious. MAELYS BLACKFYRE, THE MONSTROUS: Captain of the Golden Company
Of the Nine, three are pirates who could provide the Golden Company with badly-needed naval support for their amphibious invasion. (Remember, the Golden Company is a land-based mercenary army that needs a lot of ships to transport itself by sea. Hence the whole malarky they get into with Volantis in ADWD.)
Three or four (depending on where you put Derick Fossoway) of them are other sellsword company leaders, no doubt there to provide additional manpower. This is also highly useful for the Golden Company – while they’re some of the best soldiers in the world, there are still only 10,000 of them and if you’re going to go up against the Iron Throne, you need manpower.
Alequo Adarys provided finance and a credible puppet-ruler in Tyrosh, and lasted the longest out of all of them.
But yes, that’s what I said. As to which path is better, I don’t know; history has plenty of examples of either strategy succeeding and failing.
If Daeron II had followed a Robert-like path of clemency, it’s likely that the former Blackfyre loyalists just wouldn’t have had the motive to keep rebelling. Gormon Peake isn’t going to back Daemon II if he’s still got his castles, for example. However, it could be the case that you’d get a long peace but with a lot of underground machinations a la Robert, but then you still have peace.
If Daeron II had followed a Tywinesque policy, there are no more former Blackfyre supporters left to support any future rising. However, it’s still possible that the country as a whole – even former Targaryen loyalists – might have revolted against such blatant tyranny, similar to how Bloodraven lost his political support when he murdered Aenys Blackfyre
So Daemon invaded the Riverlands with the force of two kingdoms behind him and most likely dangled the Lord Paramountcy of the Riverlands in front of rebellious and powerful lords like the Freys, Lothstons, Brakens, etc. How badly did the Riverlands get crushed?
How did his invasion differ from the Lannisters in OTL?
Well, we know almost nothing about Daemon’s strategy in this theater, so it’s hard to say how it differed. Although I’m guessing that, with those rebellious lords in his coalition, he didn’t go with Tywin’s reaving.
But to me, the main difference is that the Riverlands were divided during the Blackfyre Rebellions. And, as we see with the various invasions of the Riverlands – the invasion by the Stormlanders where the Blackwoods invited in the Stormlanders to help them overthrow the Teagues, the invasion by the Ironborn where the Brackens sided with the Hoares to revenge themselves on the Brackens – when the Riverlands are divided, they lose badly.
Your thoughts on why Lord Frey got off so easy at the end of the Whitewalls tournament? Peake gets decapitated, but all Brynden Rivers aka Maynard Plumm says to Frey is “We will speak again later.” Further, why was Bloodraven so lenient with the other second-time rebels? Houses Costayne and Sunderland don’t seem to have been strongly demoted (like say, Osgrey was in the first Blackfyre) and while wouldn’t expect them to be Reyne-ized or Darklyn-ized, but how did House Peake even still exist in strong enough form to resist and kill King Maekar not too many years later?
Frey didn’t actually fight him or commit any open acts of treason, and had a plausible reason to be at the wedding. Indeed, it’s possible he was one of the informants who tipped off Bloodraven. Regardless, he now has a homeless son in law who brings nothing to the table.
Houses Sunderland and Peake are both in the category of probably not worth the effort to destroy, given that the former requires sending out the royal navy and an amphibious landing party at a time when Bloodraven needs the seas covered against Bittersteel, and the latter is a particularly hard nut to crack, given that the eventual Storming of Starpike takes out Maekar, Robert Reyne, and Tywald Lannister.
To quote HBO’s Rome, “if my last coin buys me a throne, it will have been worth it.”
Yes, potentially I might have to deal with an Essosi alliance down the line. But the Triarchy lasted 34 years on its own, so it’s not like I don’t have time.
And since what I’m actually after is Westeros, losing the Three Daughters after I take Westeros is an acceptable loss, but I could potentially buy off my opponents by giving them Myr and/or Lys and still be in the positive.
Then again, if and when I’ve taken Westeros, I’ll have a lot more resources to hold onto the Three Daughters if I want to.
What advice would you have given to Bittersteel and the Blackfyres after he formed the Golden Company?
Oooh….now, this is a question I can sink my teeth into.
Bearing in mind that we don’t know almost anything about the Third Blackfyre Rebellion (or the Fourth for that matter), the first of the Blackfyre Rebellions in which the Golden Company fought, I do have some advice based on my studies of the Blackfyre Rebellions.
Take the Disputed Lands First
Say what you like about Maelys the Monstrous – kinslayer, bit of a loser in the genetic lottery – he did have a good political mind. He understood that, if you were going to take Westeros, you needed a strong base on the continent to draw resources from.
And I think that the Golden Company could have seized the Disputed Lands (including Tyrosh, Myr, and Lys), fairly effectively. For one thing, even after several losses in Westeros, they were able to almost pull it off under Maelys. For another, we see that under Bittersteel, the Golden Company was easily capable of taking out Qohor.
Holding the Three Daughters and the land in-between (which doesn’t exactly look barren to me), would give the Golden Company far more resources than they would have already, which would allow for the recruitment of local troops, the hiring of more mercenary companies, a strong sellsail navy, and supplying the expeditionary force.
Taking the Disputed Lands would also demonstrate to the Blackfyre supporters on Westeros who had been burned by Daemon II that Haegon Blackfyre was a warrior like his father in contrast to the incompetent Aerys I.
Build Up Logistical Infrastructure
To me, this is the one area where I think Bittersteel may have fallen short as he seems to have focused on winning field battles over anything else. Given that the Golden Company was, when you get right down to it, trying to conquer a continent with 10,000 men and no dragons, getting your logistics right is an absolute necessity.
First of all, you need to feed tens of thousands of men – you’re trying to win over Westeros, you don’t start that by commandeering all their food. Also, since you’re hoping to expand your army by enrolling loyalists into your ranks, not only do you need to feed your own, but you also need to feed them.
Second, it’s even more crucial for arms, ammunition, and equipment. One of the few advantages that the Golden Company have going for them is that the quality of their infantry is generally better than most Westerosi forces. Now, you don’t have to equip and then train your new enrollees to the same standard, but it does open up a potential weakness – if your enemy can break your less disciplined contingents, they can really screw with your formations. Being able to arm your infantry to the standard of the Golden Company – and hopefully have time to train them – is a way to greatly improve your odds.
Third, naval resources. Given that Bloodraven was focusing the whole of the royal navy on the Narrow Sea to prevent a crossing, being able to throw three city-states worth of ships into the mix is crucial not only to ensuring that your army can cross safely but also that you can keep a supply line open to Essos, allowing for reinforcements and resupply so that Bloodraven can’t simply wear you down.
Take and Hold
This is my advice that runs most contrary to Blackfyre tradition. Rather than trying to go for King’s Landing right off the bat, I would urge the rebels to grab onto significant territory and try to hold onto it.
Here’s why – back during the First Rebellion, Daemon looked like a real going concern in no small part because he had grabbed the better part of three of the Seven Kingdoms. His death and the flight from Westeros, and especially Daemon II’s contemptible failure at Whitewalls, has badly diminished the extent to which anyone would think that the Blackfyres have a shot at taking the crown.
But if the Blackfyres could, say, take and hold the Reach, the marcher lordships of the Stormlands, and maybe the Westerlands (given that Gerold is almost dead and Tywald’s in tight with the Reynes), and hold them for an extended period of time, that’s a clear sign that this is not another Daemon II, that the Blackfyres are not going away, and that the Targaryens might have lost the metaphorical mandate of heaven.
At the same time, given that the Blackfyres are probably going into the fight outnumbered, it’s a wise move to force the Targaryens to attack, to bleed the loyalist forces dry in assaults on castle after castle, and then counter-attack at times and places where the superior discipline of the Golden Company can be of most use.
Build A Counter-Establishment
Moreover, on the political side, holding onto territory allows the Blackfyres to do what Daemon I did best and what succeeding rebellions don’t seem to have emulated – build a political counter-establishment that really threatens the Targaryens. Haegon I should be crowned and acclaimed on Westerosi soil, he should be minting coins with his face on them, he should be levying taxes and dispensing law, if the Ironborn are still raiding the Reach and the Westerlands by this period he should help repel them or at least aid in the rebuilding, and anything else that becomes a king.
Because the greatest asset the Blackfyres have right now is that Haegon is a young man whereas Aerys I is in his 50s and in poor health, he’s an unpopular and incompetent king, Bloodraven’s a tyrant, and the succession is iffy. Haegon is the clean slate, the chance for a new beginning after 13 years of misrule. The more he can get the lords of Westeros to turn to him, the more likely ultimate victory will be his.
When Daeron died: “News soon reached King’s Landing of King Daeron’s death and the rout of his remaining forces. The outrage that followed was swiftly directed at the Dornish hostages. At the command of the King’s Hand, Prince Viserys, they were thrown into the dungeons to await hanging. The Hand’s eldest son, Prince Aegon, even delivered the Dornish girl he had made his paramour to his father to await execution.”
Baelor: “Even as his lords and council cried for vengeance, Baelor publicly forgave his brother’s killers and declared that he meant to “bind up the wounds” of his brother’s war and make peace with Dorne.”
Aegon: “Aegon turned his attention to Dorne, using the hatred for the Dornishmen that still burned in the marches, the stormlands, and the Reach to suborn some of Daeron’s allies and use them against his most powerful supporters.”
Aegon IV didn’t manufacture this feeling out of whole cloth – in living memory, 50,000 Westerosi had died in Dorne, along with them a king murdered under a peace banner. That doesn’t happen without generating strong emotions, just as the events of Robert’s Rebellion created a drive for Northern independence or a Dornish desire for revenge against the usurpers or the events of the Greyjoy Rebellion the invasion of the North.
And those events also took time – 17 years passed between Rickard Stark’s burning and Robb Stark being acclaimed King in the North, 10 years between the Greyjoy Rebellion and the invasion of the North, 17 years between the death of Elia and the likely invasion of King’s Landing by the Dornish.
I’m very happy to finally announce that I’ll be doing some guest appearances on the excellent History of Westeros podcast, covering the First Blackfyre Rebellion. The first episode covered the reign of Aegon IV and how his actions as king set up many of the causes of the war. In this episode, Aziz and I cover the reign of Daeron I and the ways in which his policies regarding Dorne, the reform of the government, and his newly legitimized half-brothers also contributed to the outbreak of war:
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