In regards to the War of 5 or 4 Kings, what do you think about this legalism? Balon’s claim actually predates all of the others, by a decade & folk were aware of it (notably Robb in his offer, sent while Renly was alive) even if he hadn’t held a coronation. His argument to Robert was that he wasn’t a traitor, since his duty to the throne died with Aerys and Robert seems to have tacitly accepted that, by demanding the missing oath. Thus Balon’s reign would date from Robert’s death.

I think Balon mooted that particular claim by himself:

“Quellon Greyjoy still sat the Seastone Chair when Robert Baratheon, Eddard Stark, and Jon Arryn raised their banners in rebellion. Age had only served to deepen his cautious nature, and as the fighting swept across the green lands, his lordship resolved to take no part in the war. But his sons were relentless in their hunger for gain and glory, and his own health and strength were failing. For some time his lordship had been troubled by stomach pains, which had grown so excruciating that he took a draught of milk of the poppy every night to sleep. Even so, he resisted all entreaties until a raven came to Pyke with word of Prince Rhaegar’s death upon the Trident. These tidings united his three eldest sons: the Targaryen were done, they told him, and House Greyjoy must needs join the rebellion at once or lose any hope of sharing in the spoils of victory. (emphasis mine)

Lord Quellon gave way. It was decided that the ironborn would demonstrate their allegiance by attacking the nearest Targaryen loyalists.“

(WOIAF)

The Iron Islands could not have simultaneously been independent prior to Robert’s Rebellion (Balon’s argument following his defeat at Pyke) and have joined the rebellion prior to the Battle of the Mander (Balon’s argument in 283 AC) – because that battle post-dated the news of the Battle of the Trident, and Robert’s acclamation would have been part of that news.

And this, along with so many other reasons, is why Balon Greyjoy is utter bullshit.

Related to the Theon fostering discussion – do you think that having Theon as a Stark foster/hostage actually work to deter Balon? On the one hand, he waited years before his second attempt, but on the other hand, he clearly started planning the invasion before Robert’s death / the instability caused by the Stark/Lannister clusterfuck.

Balon is a weird case, because he’s really operating outside the norms of medieval politics. As I’ve said before, Balon has basically decided ahead of time that he’d rather sacrifice Theon than be restricted by his hostage status, which is not someone with only one male heir would normally do. 

Now, clearly Balon intended that Asha would be his replacement for Theon, although I don’t think it’s necessarily out of any enlightened philosophy on gender egalitarianism but more a kind of Viserys-like belief that he could defy the norms of his society combined with a belief that if he raised Asha to be everything a male heir should be (an experienced sea captain, a fearless warrior, a cunning pirate, etc.) that she would be accepted as one. As we see in AFFC, that didn’t quite pan out. 

But there’s an extent to which, after his older sons were killed at Seagard and Pyke, I think Balon subconsciously didn’t care about what happened after him.