Just a backup in advance of the detumblring
Chapter-by-Chapter Analysis: Tyrion VI, ACOK
“Lannister…all I’ve done has been for Lannister…”
Synopsis: Tyrion shares some good news with Cersei, sends a peace offer to Robb, sends men to the Wall, chats with Varys and Littlefinger, and deals with a traitor. Busy day.
SPOILER WARNING: This chapter analysis, and all following, will contain spoilers for all Song of Ice and Fire novels and Game of Thrones episodes. Caveat lector.
Duck, Duck, Goose is my way of joking about the whole “threefold revelation" thing. Cersei is still a good looking woman, but youth is no longer on her side, and she’s drinking and eating heavily which will take its toll.
Everything I’ve ever read about Arianne says she’s incredibly beautiful. She’s not Twiggy, but according to Ser Mix-A-Lot, the Lion-el of Richie, and lady Meghan of House Trainor, her body type is much to be admired.
In WOIAF, it is mentioned that King Brandon IX forbade the Skagosi the sea whereas before they described as accustomed to crossing the Bay of Seals to trade with the rest of the North. It was their raiding that led to Brandon forbidding them the sea.
Do you think the Skagosi rebellion in Daeron II’s reign might have been over regaining the right to have access to the sea, ie build and keep ships, breaking their centuries-long isolation?
Well, they were accustomed to raiding as much as trading – they didn’t do one then the other, they did them both at thre same time.
It’s as good a bet as any, and until we get to Davos’ TWOW chapters, we’re not going to know what motivated the Skagosi.
The army he currently has is not enough to take and hold King’s Landing. If he tries, there is still the force along the Mander with Garlan to consider to crush him against the walls of King’s Landing. He needs to gather a large enough force to be able to oppose any other challengers. It is going to take a while to convince everyone he is the real Aegon, and gather enough support.
Nothing in the vision explicitly says it is King’s Landing, so that isn’t a certifiable fact at the moment. King’s Landing isn’t the only city in the realm, there is also Oldtown. The first Aegon was crowned in Oldtown, and Oldtown supported Aegon II. The High Septon could come to Aegon, and crown him in the Starry Sept, the original seat of the Faith, with Aegon following in the footsteps of his namesake. They are trying to portray Aegon in the image of Aegon I. One doesn’t need to sit the Iron Throne to be king. Aegon the Conqueror was called “king” before the Iron Throne was even forged. To be called “king” one simply needs to be crowned.
I think in the second Dance, Oldtown will be Aegon’s base while Harrenhal will be Dany’s.
Also, there is one inconsistency. You say Dany is the younger queen that will cast Cersei down yet Aegon will take King’s Landing from Cersei, or rather cast her down. In that case the younger queen would be Arianne not Dany. So if Dany is the younger queen to cast Cersei down, then that means Aegon won’t take King’s Landing, since by the time Dany arrives Cersei will have already been cast down.
Aegon has 10,000 men. The Martells have 25,000. Many of the Stormlords have stayed out of the war. And there are friends of the Gold Company in the Tyrells’ ranks. That’s all he needs.
Garlan’s army is a thousand miles away and busy fighting the Ironborn. They’re not coming to help.
Aegon is not going to Oldtown – King’s Landing is the capitol, the Iron Throne is the symbol of a unified monarchy, the High Septon he needs to crown him is in King’s Landing, and it’s less than 500 miles away. He’s not going to go 1400 miles out of his way.
I think Cersei’s going to be awaiting trial at Aegon’s pleasure, thinking Arianne was the queen she didn’t see coming, when Dany arrives. It’s a classic prophecy fake-out, the same way that Tyrion isn’t the valonqar.
Well, there is a trading port on the eastern side of the Neck, it’s White Harbor. Which has a first mover advantage that would probably put the kibosh on any competitors.
And yes, Saltpans and Maidenpool should be more important. The story here – as with Duskendale – is the lack of royal charters inhibiting development. In the case of Saltpans and Maidenpool, we learn that there was “a tendency for the kings of the past to refuse the charters that might have given some Saltpans or Lord Harroway’s Town or Fairmarket leave to expand.” (WOAIF, p.151) This is possibly because the Kings of the Rivers and Hills weren’t that secure in their powerbase and wanted to ensure that the more easterly parts of their realm (in the case of Saltpans and LHT and Maidenpool) or the former capital of a previous House (in the case of Fairmarket) didn’t get too powerful and challenge the Kings for supremacy.
The question is why didn’t this change when the Targaryens came? Well, as with Duskendale, the Targaryens weren’t interested in letting other cities “vie for trade with King’s Landing,” (WOIAF, p. 118) as the Iron Throne gets 100% of the income from King’s Landing trade and would get a smaller cut from any other lord’s port. Given that every city in Westeros predates the Targaryens, I don’t know that there’s any examples of a Targaryen monarch giving a city charter (not a town charter, the two are different) and creating a new city.
In fact, if you look at Targaryen development policy – most noticeably the royal highways built by Jaehaerys I – the whole point is to route traffic through the capitol. Thus, the River Road abruptly turns south at Lord Harroway’s Town straight to King’s Landing, rather than continuing along the bank of the Trident to Maidenpool; Maidenpool in turn is on the Rosby road, so that you have to travel to King’s Landing before taking your goods anywhere important via roads.
So I think the story here is the weakness of the post-Draconic monarchy driving policy to favor the King’s personal income and thus the capitol. If the Targaryen monarchy was more of a genuine nation-state, you might well see the Kings doing more to promote economic development more widely.
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