Well, I did some guesstimates of the nobility here. I did some guesstimates on House Lannister’s income here and here.
The Great Houses probably all have incomes in the hundreds of thousands, given how much land they’re drawing taxes from, peaking at House Lannister’s million a year in gold.
In terms of a relative ranking of incomes, I’d say
Tier 1: Lannisters ≥ Tyrells. Obviously, this depends on agricultural prices at the time, and arguably demand for gold as well.
Tier 2: Arryns. The Vale is noted to be as equally fertile as the Reach, if not as big, and they’ve got a significant presence in Narrow Sea trade.
Tier 3: Starks, Baratheons, and Martells? Here’s where things get really hard to figure out. The North is immense, but not the most populated and the soil isn’t the best. However, it’s still arable land, and more importantly the Starks have access to valuable commodities – timber, wool, and silver. Likewise, much of Dorne isn’t arable and therefore the population isn’t very high, but the Dornish do export wines, niche agricultural commodities (peppers, citrus fruits, olive oil), and silks and satins. So I’d probably put the Martells ahead of the Starks, but I’m not sure whether it’s a tier’s worth of difference. The Baratheons probably fall somewhere in the middle – their land is a lot more productive, but they have a relatively small amount of it after the loss of the Crownlands, although they do have amber to sell (not sure how big of a market that is, tho).
Tier 3.5: Tullys. This is almost entirely a product of political disorganization. The Riverlands are large, incredibly fertile, and draw a lot of trade due to their central location. However, the Riverlands are not well-developed: they don’t have any cities, their road network could be much more developed, they need more bridges, and it’s absolutely criminal that no one’s built a canal linking the Blue Fork to Ironman’s Bay to boost trade. Likewise, I don’t think the Tullys are as good at getting taxes out of their nobles as the other Great Houses, so there’s a lot of wealth in the Riverlands that doesn’t make it to Riverrun. If the Riverlands were better organized, I’d put them easily in Tier 2.
Tier 4: The Greyjoys. The Ironborn have the smallest population and the poorest productivity of soil. Trade is diminished by the Ironborn’s hatred of “the gold price,” and the fact that iron isn’t that great a commodity to trade. Contrary to what you might think, piracy isn’t that great an income-generator: at best, you’re grabbing a percentage of the trade everyone else is making, it’s high-risk and income is intermittent, etc.
“When the direwolf raised his head, his eyes glowed red and baleful, and water streamed from his jaws like slaver. There was something fierce and terrible about him in that instant.”
“She thought she glimpsed movement, but when she turned her head, it was only the king’s shadow shifting against the silken walls. She heard Renly begin a jest, his shadow moving, lifting its sword, black on green, candles guttering, shivering, something was queer, wrong, and then she saw Renly’s sword was still in its scabbard, sheathed still, but the shadowsword…the steel of his gorget parted…
I’m very happy to finally announce that I’ll be doing some guest appearances on the excellent History of Westeros podcast, covering the First Blackfyre Rebellion. The first episode covered the reign of Aegon IV and how his actions as king set up many of the causes of the war. In this episode, Aziz and I cover the reign of Daeron I and the ways in which his policies regarding Dorne, the reform of the government, and his newly legitimized half-brothers also contributed to the outbreak of war:
In one intriguing new wrinkle, Martin says he just came up with a big, revealing twist on a long-time character that he never previously considered. “This is going to drive your readers crazy,” he teases, “but I love it. I’m still weighing whether to go that direction or not. It’s a great twist. It’s easy to do things that are shocking or unexpected, but they have to grow out of characters. They have to grow out of situations. Otherwise, it’s just being shocking for being shocking. But this is something that seems very organic and natural, and I could see how it would happen. And with the various three, four characters involved… it all makes sense. But it’s nothing I’ve ever thought of before. And it’s nothing they can do in the show, because the show has already—on this particular character—made a couple decisions that will preclude it, where in my case I have not made those decisions.”
So….let’s parse who this could be. First, the criteria:
This is a twist on one, long-term character.
This character either wasn’t on the show, got killed off early, or had their plotline changed dramatically, so it can’t be done in the show.
This twist involves 3-4 characters.
Let’s make some eliminations based on these criteria:
A+J=T – show hasn’t precluded it, doesn’t seem to involve enough characters. Don’t think so.
Dwarf’s Penny/Tysha – Tysha got dropped, doesn’t look like Penny has been cast, potentially involves 3 characters. This goes in the plausible file.
A+J=C/J – show hasn’t precluded it, doesn’t seem to involve enough characters. Don’t think so.
Lady Stoneheart and Jaime/Brienne – show doesn’t seem to be using LSH (prove me wrong, show, prove me wrong), and Jaime’s off in Dorne this season and Brienne’s doing something else in the Vale. And it potentially involves 3-4 characters. This goes on the plausible file.
Aegon is Real – show doesn’t seem to be using Griff/Young Griff, would involve quite a few characters, but on the other hand does he qualify for “long term”? Putting this one on the maybe file.
Jeyne’s Hips Don’t Lie? – well, show killed Talisa and her baby, it would potentially involve quite a few characters, and Jeyne’s a long-term character even if she’s not a main character. Putting this one on the plausible pile.
Something with Sam – well, show doesn’t seem to be sending him to Oldtown, so there’s lots of scope there. Sam’s certainly around a lot of other characters (the Oldtown crew, Jon and the NW, etc.). The only thing here is I don’t see what the twist is. So putting this on the maybe pile.
Something with Sansa – well, her plot on the show seems to be departing from what we saw in the Alayne chapter, she’s definitely around a bunch of characters, etc. And I could see a number of different twists having to do with LF, Harry, Sweetrobin, her kin, etc. Putting this on the maybe pile, but definitely on the top.
Jon stays dead – Don’t think so. Both the books and the show seem to be going on a similar route in terms of him being stabbed by his own men. Also, doesn’t seem like the right kind of twist – you don’t need death to grow organically out of characters.
Something with Jon – however, I could see some other things happening with Jon. The show’s seemingly precluded him being revived by Melisandre and/or having her convert to Jon = AA, and that would certainly involve a number of characters. Jon leaving the NW after revival might also work. Putting this one next to Sansa at the top of the maybe pile.
Arianne gets greyscale – dunno if Arianne counts as a long-time character, since she was intro’d in AFFC. Also doesn’t seem like the right kind of twist. Don’t think so.
Daario – well, having him actually be Euron or someone else or riding a dragon or something might work, given that the show doesn’t seem to be casting the Greyjoys, and it certainly would fit his character. Putting this one on the maybe pile, but not very high up.
Bolt-on – doesn’t seem precluded by the show, doesn’t seem like it would involve enough characters, doesn’t seem like the right kind of twist. Don’t think so.
Something with Jojen Reed – Jojen not being dead might fit, as the show killed him off, and it would involve multiple characters. Not sure what kind of a twist it would be. Somewhere in the middle of the maybe pile.
Something with Davos/Rickon/Osha – show’s not doing Skagos it seems like, it involves the right number of characters, although I don’t know what the twist would be. Putting this one on the maybe pile.
Theon King – given the hash they’ve made of the Asha plotline, I could see Asha pulling a Torgon the Latecomer. Involves a number of long-time characters, show seems to have precluded it, twist fits both of their character arcs. Putting this one next to Sansa at the top of the maybe pile.
Continuing with the numbers issue in the South, Tarly,Rowan & Loras salvaged 5000 from Renly’s 20000 horse at Storm’s End. So that likely represents the mounted strength of Horn Hill, Goldengrove & a few other Reacher houses. The Florents,Cranes,Varners, Fossoways, Mullendores, Willums & Meadowes switched to Stannis. Combined their mounted strength should amount to at least 5-6000. Of Mace’s 10000 reserve, around 3-4000 should be knights/squires. We know that 2 of the richest & most powerful houses-the Hightowers & their vassals(Beesburys, Costaynes) & the Redwynes had stayed away from Renly’s host.These houses should be able to field around 3-5000 cavalry at least. Add to it the houses Renly names as his supporters but never show up(Shermer, Dunn,Footley, Blackbar, etc.) and the ones he never named (Peakes, Vyrwells, Ball, Roxton, Leygood, Ambrose, Ashford etc.) , and we can account for another 5-7000 cavalry at least. So all in around 25-27000 Reacher horsemen accounted for.at least . Some other forces would have been left to guard the castles. So if we assume that at least 5-6000 Reachers switched over to Stannis, that would mean that at most 9-10000 Stormlanders joined his cause at Storm’s End. Whatever infantry Caron, Errol, Morrigen, Penrose and others mobilised would have been left behind at Bitterbridge when Renly sped off to Storm’s End, meaning the Stormlander foot had no choice but to serve under Randyll Tarly when he returned and seized control at Bitterbridge. A good % of these men are probably in the Riverlands & KL even now. So that leaves around 10000 of Stormlander military strength unmobilized (assuming that 9-10000 SL horse was matched by at least 10-15000 SL foot in Renly’s force, and that the SLs can field 30-35000 men all in all).
If Renly had the full support of both the Reach and Stormlands, his army should have been 140,000 strong, with 38,000 cavalry. As it stands, Renly seems to have around 80,000 (with 10k at Highgarden, so 90,000 or 65% support) with 20,000 cavalry (which roughly fits the ratio) – although he’ll claim to have 120,000 with 20,000 cavalry (which is way below the ratio).
Now, we know that Loras and Tarly grabbed 4,000 cavalry from Storm’s End, which includes House Tarly, House Rowan, and House Tyrell. Can’t forget this last part – the Tyrells brought a lot of manpower to Bitterbridge and Storm’s End, which is reflected by the ubiquity of their banners.
I’m going to use a rough estimate that the Houses have an average of 2,000 soldiers each, with ~540 being cavalry. So the seven Reach Houses (Florents, Cranes, Varners, Fossoways, Mullendores, Willums, Meadows) who see service with Stannis should equal roughly 3,780 cavalry. We know that 13 Stormlander Houses (Morringens, Estermonts, Carons, Conningtons, Errols, Hastys, Bollings, Horpes, Peaseburys, Fells, Wyldes, Grandisons, and Wensingtons) see action with Stannis. That’s roughly 7,020 men.
Together, that accounts for 10,800 of the 16,000 who join Stannis at Storm’s End. Now, there are a couple of possible explanations here:
Some of the Reacher Houses mentioned by Renly but who we never got verification of being present or having switched sides (Bulwer, Costayne, Hightower, Cuy, Blackbar, Shermer, Dunn, Footly) were actually present and switched sides. Most of these I’m pretty skeptical of, but I’ve actually changed my mind on the Cuys, especially after Loras killed Ser Emmon the Yellow, it might make sense that they flipped to Stannis. That would add another 4,320, although I’m thinking more like 540.
Some of the Stormlander Houses mentioned here but who don’t show up later with Stannis (Tarth, Penrose, Morrigen, Selmy) did fight with Stannis but just didn’t get mentioned. That would add another 2160 men.
My estimates for House size might be off. Some of these houses are clearly bigger than 2,000: the Fossoways are actually two separate Houses and are clearly pretty numerous given Lothor Brune’s accomplishments at Blackwater Bay, the Carons as the leading Marcher House are probably pretty big (especially if Renly gave them a seat on the Rainbow Guard), ditto House Crane. So if they’re more like the Freys than the Florents, that might add another 1,620 men.
That gets us pretty close, up to 15,000 men.
So….if around 4,000 Reachermen joined Stannis, that suggests that there’s another 23,000 Reach cavalry around. 4,000 of them went with Loras and Randall, so that leaves us with 19,000 to account for. Using the same 27% rule, around 2,700 of them were with Mace, leaving 16,300 unaccounted for.
If we look at the Reach houses that are either mentioned by Renly and don’t seem to have been there (Bulwer, Costayne, Hightower, Blackbar, Shermer, Dunn, Footly, Caswell), or the significant houses that seem to have been left out (Vrywel, Redwyne, Appleton, Ashford, Chester, Serry, Grimm, and Hewett of the Shield Islands, Cordwayner, Graceford, Merryweather, Peake, Roxton), that gives us 11,340.
So really there’s only around 5,000 unaccounted for, and House size could easily explain that.
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