Tag: asoiaf meta

Anon Asks: Daeron II’s Dornish Deal

You have argued that Daeron pushed his deal with Dorne too hard and too fast, of whic I am in agreement with. If you were his counselor, what political advice would you give him regarding the deal?  

As I’ve argued, Daeron’s main problem was that he negotiated a treaty which created the impression that the Dornish had gotten the better end of the deal, indeed, the marriage of Daenerys sort of implies that the Dornish won the war. 

As with any sort of treaty, there are winners and losers, and Daeron’s mistake is that, by then filling his court with Dornishmen, he left the losers (the Marcher lords, the Reach, Aegon IV’s loyalists) from the treaty out in the cold and feeling alienated from the monarchy. 

If I was his adviser, I would have urged him to try to sweeten the deal for the Westerosi, possibly by extending the same benefits that the Dornish got to the various Lords Paramount and some of the same benefits to the more important Lesser Houses. I would have also urged him to spread around royal patronage so that those who had lost out from the treaty and the end of the Dornish Wars would have been part of the administration – as the saying goes, better someone in the tent pissing out then outside the tent pissing in.

Moreover, given the issue of martial character, I would also have looked for some way to release the pent-up aggression of the nobility in a more controlled direction, to give them something to do besides feel resentful and bored. So look for minor wars – fight pirates on the Stepstones, help the North put down the Skagosi rebellion, send troops against Raymun Redbeard, sponsor mercenary companies to go fight in the Free CIties – and spend a chunk of the peace dividend on tourneys, so that the knights are distracted and happy. 

How do you feel the battle of the green fork would have gone if Jon snow was put in charge or if Robb had swapped commands with Roose Bolton.

Well, I think this is a case of “"any Coburg prince.” I.E, I don’t think you necessarily need a Robb Stark – Robett or Galbart Glover, the Greatjon, really any competent commander could have done a much better job.

As I write about in my recaps of Tyrion VII and Tyrion VIII of AGOT, I think Roose Bolton deliberately botched an eminently winnable battle. To begin with, deciding to go on the offensive was odd, given the Northmen were outnumbered and lacking in cavalry. His night march is especially weird, because A. he knows that Robb wants Tywin’s army as far away from the Trident as possible, and B. despite achieving tactical surprise, Roose gives the game away by drawing up in battle formation rather than attacking Tywin’s army immediately.

But even more egregiously, given that Roose has an army of almost entirely foot and a strong defensive position on the high ground that stood perpendicular to the Green Fork itself, his decision to send slow-moving spear-and-shield infantry to attack Tywin’s cavalry vanguard is absolutely insane. As in the Battle of the Hastings, if you put a shield wall on the heights of a long line of hills, knightly cavalry cannot break through – the uphill climb makes it all but impossible to generate the speed you need for a proper charge, horses founder and fall – wrecking formations. Likewise, the heights make an infantry assault even more difficult – it’s incredibly difficult to stay in formation and your shield up while you’re climbing, massed pike formations draw devastating plunging arrow volleys that gain momentum and range when you’re firing down-slope, and the Lannister bowmen’s shot is going to fall short. 

What’s bizarre about the Battle of the Green Fork is that Roose Bolton deliberately does what Harold Godwinson absolutely sought to avoid throughout the whole battle, without the feigned retreat, the faked death of William, and the actual death of Harold that was necessary to get the Saxon housecarls to break discipline. 

So with a competent and/or loyal commander in charge, the Northmen take the heights, form a strong shield wall to screen their archers, and hold their position, forcing the Lannisters to make repeated up-hill attacks that are bloodily and repeatedly repulsed. Once the word gets around that the Young Wolf isn’t present on the battlefield, and the Lannisters are forced to withdraw, the Northmen pursue relentlessly down the Kingsroad rather than retreating back to the Twins, increasing the Lannisters’ OTL losses from the forced-march retreat. 

If at all possible, try to maintain contact with Tywin’s army and slow them down as much as possible, creating the possibility that Robb’s combined Northmen and Riverlander cavalry force can beat Tywin’s mixed force to the Trident, trapping Tywin’s army between the Green Fork and the Ruby Ford and the mountains, potentially knocking the Lannisters out of the war in one fell swoop. But short of that, make sure to seize the strong defensive position at the crossroads and take control of the Ruby Ford, which Roose doesn’t do until Arya VII of ACOK. This creates a strong defensive line anchored by the Red Fork of the Trident, ensuring that the reaving never spreads “north across the Trident almost to the Twins.” It also gives Robb a protected seaport at Saltpans which allows communication, reinforcements, and resupply from White Harbor.

How do you envision some of the houses early on came to side with Nymeria/Mors? Maybe some were in the same position that Argilac was in but instead of fighting they allied to the cause to make sure their houses kept their lands as under Nymeria no one would stand in their daughters way to inherit. Surely they cant all have been beat into submission. Mybe some on the water ways also came for the technology and knowledge to make their lands more productive especially given the ”water witches”

Well, we can already make some educated guesses from the text. To begin with:

“the Rhoynar brought considerable wealth with them; their artisans, metalworkers, and stonemasons brought skills far in advance of those achieved by their Westerosi counterparts, and their armorers were soon producing swords and spears and suits of scale and plate no Westerosi smith could hope to match. Even more crucially, it is said the Rhoynish water witches knew secret spells that made dry streams flow again and deserts bloom.”

That’s a very attractive package for a Dornish lord or King, so I can see a good number of them signing up for material gain.

Equally important, the gender balance of the Rhoynish invasion/migration helped to encourage houses to join them – with eight out of ten Rhoynish being women, Nymeria’s policy of mass marriage incorporated hundreds of Dornish houses into the Rhoynar or vice versa, depending on how you look at it, with no one losing anything and the local Dornish getting wealthy brides. 

Moreover, from the text we can see some geographical splits between the Dornish houses. The Yronwoods, who were ruling half of Dorne, viewed the Rhoynar as a threat to their predominance, and were joined by their bannermen, the Jordaynes, Qorgyles, Blackmonts, and Wyls. 

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If you look at a map, this coalition is concentrated in Northern/Western Dorne, but in the eastern and more northerly part of that region. By contrast, the Fowlers, Tolands, Daynes, and Ullers (who allied with Nymeria and the Martells) are mostly regional rivals who occupied the western and southern sections of the same region – these lords likely joined due to pre-existing tensions with the Yronwoods. 

Further evidence of this self-interest comes from the fact that, of the six kings who Nymeria sent to the wall, two of them – Vorian of House Dayne and Garrison of House Fowler – were former allies. When you consider that Benedict of House Blackmont and Albin of House Manwoody were also mountain kings who “claimed dominion over the Red Mountains,” one definitely gets the sense that the Martells’ control over the western borders of their kingdom was shaky at best for some time. 

Do you think the Reynes and Tarbecks had an actual chance to topple house Lannister, if Tywin wasn’t as ruthless and competent?

Yeah, probably. Especially from the WOIAF, their total and combined forces were quite substantial compared to the forces that House Lannister could throw together – especially if you remove Tywin’s contributions from the picture. 

If I recall correctly from the extended Westerlands section, Tywin could pull together 3,500 men to fight the Reynes and Tarbecks, but the full might of House Reyne and their allies was more than 8,000 men.

So potentially, I could see a scenario where the Reynes are able to crush the Lannisters in the field and force Tytos to abdicate. The more difficult question is what they would have done after – governing after such a coup is a lot more difficult than most schemers realize. 

Vale Economic Development Plan

(For previous parts in the series, see here) 

And so the Seven Kingdoms Economic Development series comes to a close – I’ve been asked repeatedly to extend this by taking a look at Slaver’s Bay or the whole of Westeros or other things, and I might do so if I’m feeling it, but I’ve got some great projects coming up soon that will require my attention so that might be down the road a bit. 

The Vale’s an interesting case to end on – it’s got some good stuff to work with, but it seems like the Vale never quite lived up to its potential in part because of an excess of highborn conservatism has held it back. So let’s see what we can do to fix things…

“It stretched before them to the misty east, a tranquil land of rich black soil, wide slow-moving rivers, and hundreds of small lakes that shone like mirrors in the sun, protected on all sides by its sheltering peaks. Wheat and corn and barley grew high in its fields, and even in Highgarden the pumpkins were no larger nor the fruit any sweeter than here.”

One of the first strengths of the Vale that we need to tap into is agricultural productivity. While geography means that the Vale doesn’t produce as much in absolute terms as the Reach, the Vale significantly punches above its weight in terms of per-acre production. 

My recommendations here should now be quite familiar: a Northern-style agricultural revolution to increase the yield from existing farms, linked to a Reach-style sub-treasury, land bank, and marketing and purchasing cooperative. Together, these measures should mean that overall levels of production are up and generating the most possible wealth for the kingdom, while ensuring that our system of storehouses (going to make damned sure that a LOT of our storehouses are going to be located inside the Giant’s Lance – more on which in a bit) help the Vale survives the winters.

One new element (which I had intended to introduce during the Westerlands section but ran out of space, so assume that the Westerlands is also doing this) is terraced farming. This is especially crucial for the more mountainous northern half of the Vale – Strongsong, Heart’s Home, Snakewood, and Coldwater – which don’t have the broad plains of the Vale of Arryn proper, and which we can now add to the net-surplus part of our Kingdom. There’s going to be some social and military implications

“On the far side of the stoneworks, the mountains opened up suddenly upon a vista of green fields, blue sky, and snowcapped mountains that took her breath away. The Vale of Arryn bathed in the morning light.”

The second target for development is mining and manufacturing. Now, given that the Andals’ conquest depended in no small part on iron, I highly doubt that the only thing that can be harvested from the Mountains of the Moon is marble, and I’m not about to take the WOAIF’s map at its face value – especially when the map puts said Mountains in the middle of the Vale as opposed to its western border. So I would guess that there is a good bit of iron in them hills – and given the iconography of the Royces, I’m guessing there’s a good bit of tin and copper for bronze. 

Likewise, the Snakewood Forest, the many mountain streams, and the suitability of the terrain for sheep-herding, means that there’s opportunities for timber/lumber/woodworking, and wool cloth production as well. Now, the Vale is not going to out-compete the Stormlands, North, Reach, Westerlands, or the Iron Islands in any of these fields, but the idea is to diversify the Vale’s economy away from just exporting staple crops towards more value-added products, while boosting its exports to imports ratio. Also, while the Vale can’t match any of these other regions for volume of exports (and thus prices), its proximity to the Braavosi market (and thus lower transportation costs) will give it enough of an edge that it won’t get boxed out. 

“Nor did the Kings of the Mountain and Vale neglect their fleets. In Gulltown they possessed a fine and formidable natural harbor, and under the Arryns it grew into one of the foremost cities of the Seven Kingdoms. Though the Vale itself is famously fertile, it is small compared to the domains of other kings (and even some great lords), and the Mountains of the Moon are bleak, stony, and inhospitable. Trade is therefore of paramount importance to the rulers of the Vale, and the wiser of the Arryn kings always took care to protect it by building warships of their own.”

One of the great underutilized resources of the Vale is Gulltown, which given that it’s one of the oldest cities in Westeros, it’s incredibly close to Braavos and the other Free Cities, should not be as small as White Harbor. The fact that it isn’t suggests the prevailing noble prejudice against merchants and commerce in the Vale has held back the development of its only city.

Hopefully, by locating the headquarters of the Vale Sub-Treasury (as opposed to its actual storehouses), the Land Bank, and the marketing and purchasing cooperatives for agricultural, iron, timber, and wool-production in Gulltown, we can begin growing the city – building a larger merchant class, deepening capital markets, and expanding warehousing and long-shoring employment. 

Moreover, with the capital from the Land Bank and the cooperatives, we can begin to develop the Vale’s commerce by copying Braavos’ Arsenal and build a fleet of vessels that can do double service as a merchant marine and a larger Gulltown navy. The objective here should be to expand the rather modest Gulltown fleet to around 100 full-size ships, giving us some naval punch. 

Moreover, given House Arryn’s position as Warden of the East, we have more of a legal pretext to engage in pirate-hunting and seizing the Stepstones than the Greyjoys or Martells or Baratheons. Incidentally, we’re also going to want a naval outpost on the Sisters to keep that unruly place under our thumb, and promote trade with White Harbor while giving us more of a presence in the Bite should it ever come to war. 

Four-and-sixty knights had been invited to vie for places amongst Lord Robert Arryn’s  new Brotherhood of Winged Knights, and four­ and-sixty knights had come to tilt for the right to wear falcon’s wings upon their warhelms and guard their lord…

the eight victors would be expected to spend the next three years at Lord Robert’s side, as his own personal guard.

With the wealth of the land and the sea flooding into our coffers, it’s time to begin institution-building. The first thing we need to do is better knit together a Kingdom very much divided by mountain passes through a program of road-building – the High Road needs to be extended from the Eyrie in two directions, the first heading northeast to Ironoaks-Old Anchor-Longbow Hall, and the second southeast to Redfort-Gullotwn-Runestone. Next, we need to build another mountain road to connect Heart’ s Home, Strongsong, Snakewood, and Coldwater to the Vale proper, which would probably want to cross over the mountains at around Ironoaks or Longbow Hall, depending on which area has the easier pass. 

These roads will greatly improve transportation, and thus commerce and communications between the southern and northern halves of the Kingdom. However, as with the terraced farming and the expansion of industry, this is going to bring us into conflict with the mountain clans, who are a major barrier to the development of the Vale. Which unfortunately gets us into the area of economic development that hearkens back to ideas of primitive accumulation through expropriation. 

Thus – expanding on the idea of the Winged Knights from Alayne in TWOW, we would want to create an order of Knighthood much larger than just 8 men. Rather, I would look to a force of at least 700 knights (the top 7 of whom would be the bodyguard of the Lord of the Eyrie) whose task would be to hunt down the mountain clans and drive them out of the Vale, and thereafter to patrol the roads and maintain the peace in the Vale. Moreover, because I’ve been reading a lot about Byzantine cataphracts and how they combined the skills of the armored lancer and the compound recurve horse archer, I like the idea of using the Winged Knights as a military academy to train the knights of the Vale into an all-mounted army to be feared. 

Finally, the Eyrie – depending on whether the Eyrie actually does have secret paths down the mountain that would require a besieging army to spread itself across the base of the mountain, I’d put some money into building them so that it is much more difficult to stave out the Eyrie (then again, with much of the Vale’s agricultural produce being stored in the sub-treasury storehouses dug into the interior of the God’s Lance, it’s going to be very difficult to do so). Regardless, you’d definitely want to start building into the mountain, such that you can house and supply more men in Stone, Snow, and Sky (the latter two of which could use some improvements), move men between castles unseen, and if besieged, move men behind the besieging force to cut it off from its own supplies. 

Iron Islands Economic Development Plan

(For previous parts in the series, see here)

For rather idiosyncratic reasons, I’ve probably written more about the economic development of the Iron Islands (before starting this series) than any other part of the Seven Kingdoms other than the Westerlands – see here, here, here, here, and here. And one of the things I’ve learned is that the Iron Islands is a region that had a successful economic development strategy – the strategy of the Hoare Kings and Vickon and Quellon Greyjoys – and pissed it away.

Which of course complicates any future economic development plans, because all of your neighbors hate and mistrust you. So how do we proceed? In this case, I’m going to be taking on the role of Balon Greyjoy, but let’s say that in the wake of the disaster at the Mander, I have a Dickensian vision of the future that shakes me to the very core and causes a sudden conversion. So what do I do now?

The Hoare/Vickon/Quellon Model

So what is this successful model of development? If we look at the practices of the Hoare King and the successful Greyjoy lords, there are certain common themes:

First, they all limit and control reaving: 

“The Hoare kings also discouraged the practice of reaving…Vickon Greyjoy, enthroned on Pyke on the Seastone Chair, proved a stern but cautious ruler. Though he did not outlaw reaving, he commanded that the practice be confined to distant waters, far beyond the shores of Westeros, so as not to provoke the wroth of the Iron Throne…Quellon preferred to walk the road of peace. He forbade reaving, save by his leave.” 

Notably this isn’t the same thing as banning piracy outright. As we learn later, “Both reaving and trade played a part in the restoration of the pride and prowess of the islands…Reaving continued as well…but the “wolves of the sea” no longer hunted close to home, for the green-land kings had grown too powerful to provoke. Instead they found their prey in more distant seas, in the Basilisk Isles and the Stepstones and along the shores of the Disputed Lands.” By confining reaving to farflung regions, the Ironborn gain the benefits of piracy – namely, large amounts of essentially “free” wealth – without the downsides of being hated and mistrusted by all of their neighbors. In addition, they can use their naval combat skills legitimately, by acting “as sellsails, fighting for one or another of the Free Cities in their endless trade wars.”

Second, they all engage heavily in trade: 

The Hoare kings also discouraged the practice of reaving. And as reaving declined, trade grew…Merchants and traders sailing from Lordsport on Pyke and the harbors of Great Wyk, Harlaw, and Orkmont spread out across the seas, calling at Lannisport, Oldtown, and the Free Cities, and returning with treasures their forebears had never dreamed of…Both reaving and trade played a part in the restoration of the pride and prowess of the islands. Other lands now built larger and more formidable warships than the ironmen, but nowhere were sailors any more daring.

Trade has two main advantages for the Ironborn – first, it plays to their maritime strengths while potentially adding a lot to national wealth. Second, it also plays into their political agenda – building relationships with their larger and more powerful neighbors who otherwise have no reason to do anything but go to war with the Ironborn. 

At the same time, trade also allows the Ironborn to build up their military strength: “Qhorwyn had spent his entire reign accumulating wealth and avoiding war. "War is bad for trade,” he said, infamously, even as he was doubling, then tripling the size of his fleets and commanding his smiths to forge more armor, swords, and axes. “Weakness invites attack,” Qhorwyn declared. “To have peace, we must be strong.”

Third, they engage in cultural reform with a view to enhancing human capital and political alliances:

Harmund the Host was the first king of the Iron Islands known to be literate. He welcomed travelers and traders from the far corners of the world to his castle on Great Wyk, treasured books, and gave septons and septas his protection.

His son Harmund the Haggler shared his love of reading, and became renowned as a great traveler. He was the first king of the Iron Islands to visit the green lands without a sword in his hand. Having spent his youth as a ward of House Lannister, the second Harmund returned to Casterly Rock as a king and took the Lady Lelia Lannister, a daughter of the King of the Rock and “the fairest flower of the west,” for his queen. On a later voyage he visited Highgarden and Oldtown, to treat with their lords and kings and foster trade.

And since Aegon had accepted the Seven as his gods and been anointed by the High Septon in Oldtown, Lord Vickon allowed the septons to return to the islands once again to preach the Faith.

Lord Quellon Greyjoy, the wisest of the men to sit the Seastone Chair since Aegon’s Conquest. …brought maesters to the Iron Islands by the score, to serve as healers to the sick and tutors to the young; with them came their ravens, whose black wings would tie the isles to the green lands tighter than ever before.

It was Lord Quellon who freed the remaining thralls and outlawed the practice of thralldom on the Iron Islands (in this he was not wholly successful). And whilst he took no salt wives himself, he allowed other men to do so but taxed them heavily for the privilege…

As much as this strategy has been hated by hard-liners, it’s undeniably effective. The presence of the Faith creates some basis for fellowship with greenlanders who otherwise might view us as hostis humani generis; trade alliances with House Gardener and Hightower and marriage alliances with House Lannister means that the Ironborn can go to war with allies as opposed to fighting a united Westeros. Maesters provide education, health care, communications, and a lot more. 

But most of all, moving away from thralldom means that, rather than trying to hold the majority of the population in bondage, the Ironborn can make use of the whole of its limited population. 

Rebuilding the Iron Islands’ Credit

As the newly-enlightened lord of the Iron Islands, my first step will be to build on the work of Quellon in restoring the reputation of the Ironborn, and trying to get back to where our political credit was in the time of Harmund the Haggler. In this, my main advantages are: having technically been on the right side of Robert’s Rebellion, and having a good number of kin (three sons, one daughter, and two brothers)  available for marriage alliances and fosterages.

While maintaining a degree of flexibility – it’s hard to know what connections you’re going to need not just at the time but twenty years from now – there are certain things I should shoot for:

  • acquire land/timber in the North. As I’ll discuss down the road in my asoiaf analyses, Asha Greyjoy’s idea of acquiring land in the North isn’t a terrible idea. It’s just that it would never work in the wake of an invasion of the North. However, it might work as part of a combination fosterage/marriage alliance – perhaps one of my sons to one of Eddard’s daughters, or Asha for Robb, or maybe Victarion to Barbrey Dustin. The objective here is to get coastal land which allows for both the traditional fishing and commerce of the Ironborn and farming, preferably somewhere with access to timber (or at least work out a good trade deal with the Glovers and/or Forresters) – because I’m going to need that timber later on. 
  • better trade with the Westerlands. As one of my closest and by far my richest neighbor, good relations with House Lannister is historically a winning strategy for the Iron Islands, especially if down the line I’m going to want a rather sizable loan from Casterly Rock. Now, Tywin’s a hard bastard, but a combination of fostering and/or marriage alliances (Asha/Tyrion might not be an ideal marriage, but it might be our way in here; alternatively, maybe some lesser Lannisters might do?) could help to prize out some gold from the Rock. 
  • establish royal connections. Another target for fostering and marriage alliances is the new Baratheon regime, which is going to be looking for followers to fill up the royal court, and given the historical status of the Greyjoys as wild cards, we’re good targets for recruitment to keep us loyal. Getting some sons fostered – preferably with Stannis, as (as with the North and the Westerlands, one objective I have is to make sure that any Greyjoys fostered out of the Islands receive naval training, either with the Lannisport Fleet or the Manderlys or the Royal Navy). Down the line, I’m going to need royal backing for some of my plans. 

Iron for Gold, Gold for Iron

So now that I’ve rehabilitated the reputation of the Ironborn somewhat, it’s time to make some money, because as Qhorwyn knew, gold can buy strength. In terms of exports, there’s really only one way to go:

Some say that the Iron Islands are named for the ore that is found there in such abundance…There was still a wealth of iron ore to be found beneath the hills of Great Wyk, Orkmont, Harlaw, and Pyke, and lead and tin as well. The ironmen’s need for wood to build their ships remained as great as ever, but they no longer had the strength to take it wherever they found it. Instead they traded iron for timber. And when winter came and the cold winds blew, iron ore became the coin the kings of House Hoare used to buy barley, wheat, and turnips to keep their smallfolk fed (and beef and pork for their own tables)..

As in previous installments, the key to economic development here is to climb the value added ladder – rather than selling iron ore, the Ironborn need to be selling finished products, and grow that market as much as possible. Thus, selling ironmongery and pewter goods to the civilian consumer market is a much better direction than exporting weapons and armor (we’re still going to make and sell those, but as much as possible for the domestic market) because of the much larger potential for market growth. 

Another thing we’re going to want to do is improve the quality of our product by acquiring the best smiths we can from Qohor, Lannisport, and King’s Landing. And given that we’re Ironborn and not particularly touchy about honor, no reason we can’t bribe, purchase, or kidnap our craftsmen as a particularly violent means of industrial espionage. 

At the same time, another major source of potential revenue is to go into the mercenary business – the 15,000 or so Ironborn under arms have very limited use in Westerosi warfare atm, but 5-10,000 of them in mercenary service as the Iron Company could earn a princely sum in Essos, as a Golden Company with its own navy. Moreover, we can compensate for the low numbers of the Ironborn by using our gold and iron to equip our mercenary army as dismounted men-at-arms in full plate (which historically were incredibly successful as infantry). We’re never going to out-number our opponents, but we can be superior in quality and maneuverability.  

It’s also useful in diverting the cultural pressures of the Old Way, by ensuring that the majority of Ironborn warriors continue to earn their living with iron rather than with gold. 

Ships Can Be Used For Many Things

The sad thing about Balon Greyjoy is that the idea of the Iron Fleet is actually a pretty good one. 100 real ships, albeit a third smaller than your standard warship, give the Greyjoys a real naval power. But why stop there? With more money to work with, the Iron Fleet can be a lot more impressive. 

The first thing we need to do is to engage in some industrial piracy – get our hands on some swan ships from the Summer Islands and learn the standardized parts/production line methods of Braavos so that we can build a major shipyards on Pyke that can build us a proper ocean-going fleet…or two. (Incidentally, this is where the timber and loans come in)

In fact, that’s exactly what I want. Similar to the Dornish case, I want both a merchant marine (a very well-protected merchant marine that could be converted into privateering as necessary) and a navy that I can use as the sellsail accompaniment to my sellsword company. This in turn needs to be linked up to a marketing and purchasing cooperative, and a merchant bank so that the Iron Islands can get the maximum wealth out of commerce. (incidentally, this is another reason I want the loan)   

Incidentally, this is also the point at which I start trading in on my royal connections (we might also want to partner with the Tullys and Mallisters to push a Blue Fork Canal that would speed up our Essos trade). The idea is to leverage our son’s connections with Stannis to start loading up the royal navy’s officer corps with a disproportionate number of younger sons of the Ironborn – with the idea being to channel their martial interests into royal service, to demonstrate the Iron Island’s usefulness and loyalty to the new regime, all the while gaining experiencing in commanding full-size naval vessels (and, as we’ve seen, in the case of a civil war, officers can half-inch royal ships). 

Once we’ve built up our credit with Robert, now’s the time to press our big idea – offering the Iron Company and the Iron Fleet to clear the Stepstones of pirates and claim them in Robert’s name, while showing that the Ironborn as now on the side of law and order. This is the exact kind of venture Robert would love, and might well replace the Greyjoy Rebellion in the timeline. Possession of the islands would give us more territory to settle our population, our own base for the Iron Company/Fleet, excellent access to the Essosi market, and a great leaping off point for the next phase of our plan. 

Becoming “Legitimate Businessmen”

All of this is very well and good, but probably puts the Ironborn somewhere around the power of House Redwyne or Hightower (maybe a bit more). So how do we go about becoming a continental power?

Well, the first step is to parlay our control over the Stepstones into some real power. In additional to charging a reasonable fee for passage – being careful to give Robert his fair share – we can also set up the Iron Island’s Merchantile Shipping Insurance Company and begin charging the merchants of the Three Daughters, Volantis, and points east premiums to be protected from piracy, while using our Iron Fleet to engage in some privateering against the pirates. (Notably, we’re going to be giving Braavos a wide berth – lower prices, avoid attacking their ships, and making a big deal of abolishing thralldom and attacking slavers – to avoid their fleet and their Faceless Men)

At the same time, there’s an internal purpose to all of this – teaching the Ironborn that there’s a middle way between the Old Way and the New Way, in which we learn to harness the Ironborn love of violence to profit, through the creation of organized crime networks in every port in Westeros:

  1. smuggling – I’ve got hundreds of longships who are very good at arriving and departing quickly and who don’t really care about excise and customs regulations.
  2. loansharking – the merchant bank will now have a lot of liquid capital, the merchant classes of Westeros are under-banked and I’ve got 5-10,000 experienced mercenaries to act as legbreakers. 
  3. protection – with a lot of experience working protection rackets against trading cartels and Esssoi governments who don’t pay their mercenaries, 

Once we’ve got this up and running, it’s time to buy influence, using many of the same methods that Littlefinger used – start with building up a client base in the merchant classes who fear and yet need me, then buy up the debt of the lesser nobility, and build our way upwards (especially in the capitol, where we’ll eventually want to try to supplant Stannis as Master of Ships). House Greyjoy’s power will not be the same as the Lannisters or the Tyrells. Rather, it will be the subtle power from the shadows, backed up by ruthless efficient use of our professional army and subversion within their own ranks. 

Cue the music!