Does Tyrion fall under the same purview for propping up the Lannister regime prior to the Purple wedding? I’m just genuinely curious if we’re working from the same standard here because I’m baffled as to what we could/should expect from someone in Jaimie’s position (who did do the right thing once upon a time and was vilified for it) while accounting for the fact that he was born a Lannister and ask what viable political alternative exits for him to resist for at this point?

I certainly think he does.

Indeed, that’s the central tension of Tyrion’s arc in ACOK – we’re rooting for him to succeed against Cersei and Varys and Pycelle and Littlefinger, we cheer when he leads the sally from the Mud Gate to the cheers of “Halfman!” but at the end of the day, Tyrion’s success means that Joffrey stays on the Iron Throne.

And this is a point that GRRM hammers home again and again. Tyrion starts ACOK by proclaiming that he’s going to “do justice,” and he’s absolutely gobsmacked to find out that the smallfolk of King’s Landing hate him. And as much as he likes to blame everything on Joffrey and feel aggrieved, Tyrion’s his Hand of the King and doesn’t do a damn thing when Joffrey starts giving orders to murder innocent civilians or shooting starving people with crossbows.

I would also argue, btw, that a big chunk of Tyrion’s ASOS arc is his realization of his complicity in this regime and his realization of what the regime is like when you’re no longer the man on top…

Now, it’s an open question whether Tyrion is going to reawaken to humanity as @poorquentyn explores in his ADWD essays, but I personally hope that part of that process is Tyrion realizing that it’s not enough to try to “soften the blow” but that one has to defect from the system of oppression and join Dany’s revolution in order to actually “do justice.”

As for Jaime, I think I’ve made my opinion clear on that point: Jaime’s hated because he stupidly refuses to tell anyone what he did and why. But in my opinion, Jaime should be condemned for not stopping the Mad King the moment Aerys gave the command to burn people alive without trial.

Regarding Steffon Baratheon’s mission to Volantis to find a bride for Rhaegar, do you think its possible he just botched the mission because he was already part of the “southron ambitions” alliance?

Here’s the thing about Steffon Baratheon…after WOIAF, I’m less convinced than I was before that Steffon was part of the Southron Ambitions conspiracy. After all, everything in WOIAF speaks to Steffon as having been super-tight with another power bloc:

Aerys and Tywin had known each other since childhood. As a boy, Tywin Lannister had served as a royal page at King’s Landing. He and Prince Aerys, together with a younger page, the prince’s cousin Steffon Baratheon of Storm’s End, had become inseparable. During the War of the Ninepenny Kings, the three friends had fought together, Tywin as a new-made knight, Steffon and Prince Aerys as squires.

By contrast, we learn absolutely nothing about any potential links to Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, or Rickard Stark. Now, it’s possible that Steffon’s closeness to Aerys meant that he could see the growing madness, but that’s not really the impression you get with the whole trip to Volantis. (Maybe he blamed the Targs for his father’s death? I dunno.)The detail that bugs me is we don’t know why Jon Arryn was chosen to be Robert’s foster-father – was this due to a close relationship between Jon and Steffon or something else?

So my current thinking – and I have to say, I feel 60-40 on this – the Baratheons weren’t supposed to be a part of the SA coalition: after all, they had close blood relations to the Targs, Steffon was personally close to Aerys, etc. Rather in a stroke of good luck/political nous, it was only after Steffon’s death and Robert becoming Jon Arryn’s ward that the SAs could count on having the Stormlands in their camp.

Perhaps this explains why Hoster Tully reached out to Tywin Lannister for a marriage alliance. The SAs not being idiots, they could see that Tywin was on the outs with Aerys, and getting the second-most powerful man in Westerosi politics along with the might of the Westerlands for their power bloc could only help.

Are Walder Frey and House Frey based off of any specific historical analogue? Were medieval Lords known to have castle bridges like the Twins?

Fortified bridges were a real thing and lots of people built them; I don’t know that they particularly distinguish one noble house as an analogue to the Freys, necessarily.

Rather, I think the correct analogue to the “Late Lord” Walder Frey is the perfidious Thomas Stanley:

”Lord Stanley…came from a staunch Lancastrian House, but was married into the Yorkists through the Earl of Warwick. At the Battle of Blore Heath, one of the opening battles of the war, Stanley raised 2,000 men at his King’s command but then withheld them just a few miles away as a Lancastrian army was defeated by a smaller Yorkist force. When Edward IV took up the Yorkist cause, Stanley defected and fought alongside the new King; when Warwick defected from Edward IV, Stanley fought to restore Henry VI for the last time. Remarkably, he managed to get appointed to Edward IV’s royal council even after his betrayal. He then married Margaret Beaufort, the mother of Henry Tudor, while helping Richard III fight the Scots. Famously, Stanley held back his forces at Bosworth Field despite Richard III holding his son hostage, and then charged Richard’s rear once the King was fully committed, personally crowning Henry VII to make sure he ended up on the right side.”

As his reward for conspicuous disloyalty to both sides and general amorality (Stanley is one of the candidates for having actually killed the Princes in the Tower), Stanley was raised from a baroncy to the Earldom of Derby, was made a knight of the Garter, Lord High Constable of England, High Steward of the Duchy of Lancaster, Chamberlain of Chester and North Wales, and many many other honors, offices, and lands.

And what makes it worse is that, as his family prospered quite well under the Tudors, his descendants were patrons of William Shakespeare, who made Stanley out to be a righteous and loyal vassal in his plays. Just goes to show that it really doesn’t matter who writes the histories as much as who pays for the histories to be written.

Ironborn and Thralldom

Hiya!! Great work on the newest Politics of the Seven Kingdoms as usual! One thing that I thought kinda went underplayed in your analysis of the Ironborn was the effects of thralldom on military development. Using Sparta, chattel slavery, or manoralism as examples, it seems like there would be a serious concern amongst “Old Way” adherents about thrall revolts, especially since their reaving drastically expands the population of thralls. This would mean that the next time they sail, they would leave more people behind to maintain their caste system which would in turn reduce the number of men they had available for reaving in a stagnating cycle unless some “New Way” king comes to power to clean up. Do you think this would help address some of the concerns regarding the Ironborn’s numbers? I often see it put up that thralldom would increase the Ironborn’s military strength, but honestly this seems backwards compared to a lot of historical examples, where these kinds of systems hamper military mobilization due to fear of revolts (which can be seen even as late as the terror of European aristocrats at the strength of Revolutionary France’s levee en masse). Even in universe, Braavos rapidly developed and seems to have achieved parity with the rather unstable slave societies of Valyria’s ancient colonies and has a glut of ship builders and bravos hanging around, while Volantis is paranoid about having enough guards to prevent a R’hllor led slave revolt. At a fundamental military level, it just doesn’t seem entirely suprising that the Ironborn’s biggest successes (apart from plot power) come from singular strikes after a New Way king reduces the thrall population (freeing up guards and increasing available population) and increases the number of available men closer to its 15000 man limit for Balon or Harwyn Hardhand.

I felt I’d addressed it enough via the Sparta comparisons, but this is a fair point. Generally speaking, keeping a large segment of your population bound to unfree labor means having to hold back a significant number of soldiers to keep them in place.

Just one of the many ways in which slavery warps slave societies.

Politics of the Seven Kingdoms: The Iron Islands (Part II)

When we last left off with the political development of the Iron Islands, the Old Way had come crashing down thanks to the arrival of the Andals to Westeros and the ambitions of men with axes. What would fill the void was yet to be discovered…
(more…)

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Something curious arising from your essay on thralldom. Do you think there was slavery on Dragonstone and at Driftmark? If so, when was it abandoned?

There was definitely slavery on Dragonstone, and likely at Driftmark as well:

“The Targaryens were of pure Valyrian blood, dragonlords of ancient lineage. Twelve years before the Doom of Valyria (114 BC), Aenar Targaryen sold his holdings in the Freehold and the Lands of the Long Summer and moved with all his wives, wealth, slaves, dragons, siblings, kin, and children to Dragonstone, a bleak island citadel beneath a smoking mountain in the narrow sea.”

In terms of when it was abolished…it seems to have happened fairly early on, because the description of the practice of first night on Dragonstone in P&Q wouldn’t make sense.

Why would an ex-First Sword of Braavos take on a gig as a weapon trainer for the daughter of a Westerosi Lord ? Isn’t it a great step down from his previous position ? What was he even doing in KL anyway ? When Westerosi nobility look for weapons instructors, they usually go for kngihts, not old bravos.

This isn’t the first time I’ve gotten this question, but I looked and couldn’t find a post where I’d answered it before, so I might as well.

Syrio took the job precisely because he’s the ex-First Sword. The old Sea Lord died, there was an election, and the new man wanted his own First Sword instead of Syrio, so Syrio needs to find a new job.

And the problem with being a bravo in Braavos is that there are a lot of bravos looking for work, so competition is fierce and underemployment is rampant (hence why so many bravos run protection rackets or resort to mugging or begging with menaces).

We don’t know whether the Sea Lord died of natural causes or whether Syrio left in disgrace because the Sea Lord died on his watch, but it could well have been the case either way that he found it difficult to find employment in the city, because it’s not the best branding.

Alternatively, one of the ways you get work as an ambitious bravo looking to make your name is to kill a bravo with an established name, like say Syrio Forel. Now, the First Sword doesn’t run, but Syrio Forel might have grown weary of killing hot-headed young men and decided to move to somewhere that wasn’t something he had to deal with on a regular basis.

As for why King’s Landing? It’s a big city near to Braavos that doesn’t have a culture of bravos, as most of the Free Cities do (remember, water dancers are from Braavos, but not all bravos are water dancers). And while the nobility might not hire him for their sons, King’s Landing has a thriving merchant community (and not a small number of foreign merchants) who might want their sons to learn the blade even if they’re unlikely to become knights.

Also….he could also be an actual dancing master. A lot of swordmasters taught dance as well – footwork, balance, timing, etc. are critical to fencing so a lot of the skills carry over, the training rooms are essentially identical so if custom flags in one area you make up the difference in the other.

What is the formal charge that an overlord would level at a vassal for not fulfilling his feudal obligations (Example – Late Walder Frey during Robert’s Rebellion)? Thank You – RSAFan

The name of the formal charge is actually….”felony.”

Indeed, if we consult legal dictionaries, we find that “felonia” was originally understood to mean “the act (or offense) by which a vassal forfeited his fee.”

X-Posted from Tumblr: A Westerosi Grain Dole

anonymous asked: How feasible would a grain dole be in westeros? Could you have a Roman style aystem at least for a major city like King’s Landing, sort of as a primitive social safety net? Where/how could you develop this? Thanks!! Excellent question! Judging from the WOIAF, we do have some crude systems of regional redistribution of grain in times of crisis, as seen by the fact that Aegon V…

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How feasible would a grain dole be in westeros? Could you have a Roman style aystem at least for a major city like King’s Landing, sort of as a primitive social safety net? Where/how could you develop this? Thanks!!

Excellent question!

Judging from the WOIAF, we do have some crude systems of regional redistribution of grain in times of crisis, as seen by the fact that Aegon V sent grain up to the North during a particularly bad winter. I would argue that the North’s intense attachment to guest right (and its less frequently mentioned tradition of self-euthanasia during long winters) has a lot to do with a sort of crude welfare state of seeking food and shelter at Winterfell. (We also see the Starks exercising very close control over food reserves, for example)

But in terms of a regular grain dole, we actually have an example from Westerosi history:

“Ultimately, some have wondered if the king’s near death in Dorne did not affect his mind in some way, for as the years of his reign progressed, his decisions grew ever more zealous and erratic. Though the smallfolk loved him—he emptied the treasury regularly to fund his charitable acts, including the year when he donated a loaf of bread daily to every man and woman in the city—the lords of the realm were beginning to grow uneasy.” e

Ultimately, some have wondered if the king’s near death in Dorne did not affect his mind in some way, for as the years of his reign progressed, his decisions grew ever more zealous and erratic. Though the smallfolk loved him—he emptied the treasury regularly to fund his charitable acts, including the year when he donated a loaf of bread daily to every man and woman in the city—the lords of the realm were beginning to grow uneasy.

So Baelor the Blessed supposedly bankrupted the monarchy by (among other things) providing a bread dole for the population of King’s Landing. Now, according to AGOT, a tart costs around three coppers, which I’ve been using as a pre-war price for a loaf of bread. That would suggest that it would cost around 127 dragons a day to buy everyone in King’s Landing a loaf of bread, or 46,355 gold a year.

At that rate, a grain dole for the whole of Westeros would cost 3.7 million gold a year, or 0.7% of GDI, or 7% of total tax revenue. This seems surprisingly affordable, although based on my old estimates of royal income, it would bankrupt the monarchy.

However, you have to keep two things in mind: first, it’s all based on the estimate of how much bread costs. If bread costs more than 3 coppers a loaf as I had originally estimated, the price skyrockets. Second, I could be quite wrong about GDI and thus tax revenue.

So let me see if I can approach it from another angle. I’ve estimated that the average yearly income is between 3-5 gold. During the Ancien Regime, the average worker spent about half their income on bread, although this could spike as high as 88% during crop failures. (That suggests that the average Westerosi spends 48 coppers (or ~1 silver) to 80 coppers (or 1.5 silver) a day on bread.)

In turn, this would suggest that a grain dole would cost 60 to 100 million dragons a year. That’s 11.4 to 19% of GDI, or 114% to 190% of total tax revenue.

So I’m going to go out on a limb and say that either three coppers is the wrong price for a loaf of bread, or the smallfolk of Westeros eat 16 tarts a day, which seems unhealthy.