I read your economic plan for the Westerlands. It is really good and interesting. I am just a bit curious about one point: how do you think the Iron Bank would react to the emergence of such a competitor?

Not well, but House Lannister would be more difficult to deal with than the Rogare Bank in Lys – it’s a powerful military sovereign, its vassals are quite cowed and loyal, it’s rather far away, and there aren’t convenient rivals to support. 

My guess would be that they’d have to resort to more indirect methods – providing support to the Riverlands, Reach, etc. to build up anti-Lannister forces and contain the Westerlands, pay the Ironborn bonuses to raid Lannisport commerce, and wait for an opportunity like the War of Five Kings to get the House declared traitors.

You’re good at counter-factuals, help me out: what happens if Ned successfully sent Arya and Sansa back to Winterfell before his downfall? They’re there when Theon takes the castle. Does Theon forcibly marry Sansa? Does Arya escape with Bran and Rickon? What does Robb do with Jamie? Is the Red Wedding averted if Sansa and Arya somehow foil Theon’s “Bran and Rickon are dead” plot?

Well, Theon might not take the castle in that scenario. With Arya and Sansa in Winterfell, it’s more likely that Catelyn would have returned to the North, and she’d never send all of the troops away from Winterfell with four of her children inside. 

Do you think Ned Stark had good reason to suspect, pre Cersei’s confession, that Joffrey was a bastard born of incest? Also as I recall, he came to the conclusion that Joffrey was Jamie’s son just because of the blonde hair. I mean, yeah, the kids don’t have Robert’s darker coloring but Sansa and Robb both have the Tully look; no one ever accused Cat of unfaithfulness. I’m not ragging on GRRM w/r/t genetics just asking if Ned really could have expected support based on that evidence?

It wasn’t just the hair. It was also who was in the castle when Bran fell.

What would you think of a canal linking the God’s Eye to the point where the Trident branches out? This would link all rivers in the Riverlands (thereby unifying the region economically), and would also allow the entire Riverlands to transport grain down the Blackwater Rush to King’s Landing similar to the Mander-Blackwater canal you proposed (as the Riverlands are the largest producer of grain behind the Reach). Does this sound like a good idea to you?

Actually, that’s a brilliant idea, and I’m jealous I didn’t think of it first. 

I know Ned was the warm, kind & doting father – the protective Papa Wolf – who would still see his daughters as his little girls. (that attitude extends a little with his sons too, though he is a bit more stricter on them , example his emphasis of Bran witnessing the execution b/c he wouldn’t be a boy forever.) BUT do you think if Ned had taken a stricter approach regarding his children’s prospective marriages, that it could have saved himself & family from all the issues of them being tbc…

unmarried. Ned could have negotiated possible marriages for Robb and Sansa with his bannermen’s heirs? Example, Robb/Wynafryd Manderly or Alys Karstark AND Sansa/SmallJon Umber or Brandon Tallhart? Last time, Starks married South it resulted in the death of 3 of them – why would Ned want to risk that again? Wouldn’t it have more safer to marry his children into the family of people he knew respected & valued him? This reminds me of what Lady Dustin tells Theon about … tbc …

“The Freys may not care for what your master does to her [fArya] but what do you think goes through their minds [Northern lords] when they hear valiant Ned’s little girl’s cry?” I also thought that Ned didn’t like the previous experience of fostering children out so why allow the Southern betrothal for Sansa? If Ned really wanted to spoil Sansa & her dreams of going South a possible fostering in Riverrun or Runestones would have being much preferrable than bringing her to KL, b/c she tbc…

Yikes, folks. These super-long questions are getting a bit tricky to answer. Might I suggest the About page on my WordPress site?

But to get to the substance of your question – Ned’s behavior wrt his kids is a bit strange. I think we have to look at it in context of a man who lost almost his entire family violently and very suddenly – father, brother, sister, possibly his mother, then his only remaining brother takes the black – and who probably had a major problem with the idea of his kids going anywhere. Hence no fostering, no squiring, no nothing.  

We also need to keep in mind that Sansa marrying South was not his idea – it was Robert’s, and Ned had to be talked into saying yes. 

Hi, do you think if Ned had any power to distance himself from Robert post-RR? Ned didn’t *have* to reconcile with Robert? (the guy just shrugs off the butchering of an innocent woman & her “babes” as a necessary sacrifice) I suppose Ned didn’t want to draw attention to himself or family, but I think he would have saved himself so much grief had he told Robert that their friendship was over. Tbc

To add insult to injury, Robert also marries daughter of the man who sack the city through betrayal and deceit, and kept the young Jaime in the KG unpunished? Isn’t this a contradiction with Ned’s righteous & honorable personality? Couldn’t Ned say ‘no’ to a marriage between Joffrey and Sansa? I know it could have risen suspicion but could have Ned asked for some time to know Joffrey ‘the boy’ rather than blindly accepting it? Ned didn’t want to rush marrying off Sansa? Thanks. 🙂

Well, I think he did distance himself after the Sack of King’s Landing. But then one of his two remaining family members – the woman Robert was betrothed to and cared about, even if in the abstract – died and I think Eddard needed a friend in that moment. 

I don’t think Ned was thinking they’d get married right away – I think he intended a somewhat lengthy engagement and toward the end was certainly willing to cancel it when he saw what Joffrey was. 

Which is why the sufficient numbers I referenced to threaten the Faith with was the Tyrell army of around 15,000 Randal Tarley brought to release Margeary, and assumed it would take a similar number if Cersei wanted to get out, which the Lannisters should theoretically still have had. As for the Freys, I understand that but you have to admit this is still stretching their forces pretty thin given the number of commitments they have.

I wouldn’t necessarily make that assumption; Tarly brought the force he had on hand, and he’s not averse to over-doing it to win through overawing them vs. a heads-up fight. 

And yes, they’re stretched thin. That’s kind of the whole point of the Frey and Lannister plot in AFFC/ADWD, that they’ve succumbed to victory disease and are massively overreaching themselves, which will bring about their downfall. 

Take House Frey for example – they’ve only got 4,000 men and they’re trying to take over the North and the Riverlands. They’ve got men at Darry, Seagard, Riverrun, and Winterfell trying to hold it all, but they’re starting to die like flies. Doom is upon them.

I’m really liking these economic development plans. It’s got me thinking about development in general. I know economic development tends to be positive sum, but sometimes certain things can be mutually exclusive. For instance: the port of Oakland and the port of San Francisco could not both survive containerization. The number of US ports has plummeted, even while the amount of shipping has skyrocketed. (Continued)

Annon part 2: So along those lines: what (if any) parts of the various Weteros Economic Development plans would make other parts irrelevant or ineffective? Punning Pundit

So yeah, there are a bunch of parts in the various plans that would, not exactly make parts irrelevant but would cut into the profit margins dramatically. For example:

  • the two major canals (Blue Fork and Mander) would split the traffic between them instead of being able to monopolize. That limits what you can charge, how much commerce is coming into your region, etc. It doesn’t cancel it out completely – if you’re going to trade with the North or the West, the Riverlands canal is probably better; if you’re going to trade with Oldtown or King’s Landing, the Mander canal is better – but the impact will be halved. 
  • If the various Land Banks and State Reserve Banks got off the ground before the Lannister Bank did, they could box it out of expansion; and vice versa. Bit of an arms race there. 
  • If the Tyrells’ textiles industry gets going before the Martells’ forestalling scheme can come into effect, the Martells are screwed. And there will be other cases of competition in future installments.