I think the promise was to raise Jon as if he were his own son, based on Bran’s vision. 

Mostly a guess, based on him being headed that way at the time of the Whitewalls Tourney in 212, and the fact that he’s definitely not in the North by 219.  

If the High Sparrow joins Aegon, would Cersei respond by naming her own puppet High Septon?

I think her candidate would be Luceon who is a Frey (who are allied with the Lannisters) and serves Arbor gold and usckling pig to the Most Devout to win their votes. He is corrupt and connected to the most despised, treacherous house in Westeros, that makes him the perfect candidate by Lannister standards. 

Cersei could try, but I don’t think anyone’s going to follow her anti-High Septon.

GRRM’s been pretty consistent in his descriptions in ADWD and WOIAF. 

I think it’s just a worldbuilding error. Which are pretty rare, to give GRRM credit.

Well, the Lannisters started the war with 35,000 men under arms, and raised another 6,000 after the Battle of the Camps, which brought them pretty close to their maximum. I would say the Westerlands can raise ~45,000 men, 50,000 if you stripped the country bare of garrisons and the like.

Of Jaime’s 15,000 men, 2,000 are lost at the Whispering Wood, 8,000 are lost at the Battle of the Camps, and when Tywin calls up a new host at Oxcross with the 4,000 survivors of the Camps plus around 6,000 green men, the remnants of this original army are wiped out.

Of Tywin’s initial 20,000 men, an unknown number (but substantially more than 500) are lost at the Battle of Green Fork and the retreat to the crossroads. Perhaps a few hundred are lost during the reaving of the Riverlands, and the back-and-forth fighting at Stone Hedge, Darry, Maidenpool, etc. Of the remainder of the 20,000 who made it to Harrenhal, an unknown (but quite substantial) number of men are lost at the Battle of the Fords, another unknown number are lost at the Blackwater, another unknown (but “heavy”) number are lost at Duskendale, and an unknown but probably light number are lost at the Ruby Ford. 

I would guess that, following the Red Wedding, the Lannisters  had ~12,000 men under arms with Tywin, but definitely fewer than 15,000. Of those men, 800 go with Jaime to the Riverlands, another 2,000 are sent to assault Dragonstone (with 1,000 dying in the process), and the rest demobilize. In addition, Daven Lannister has around 1,2000 men that he scraped together from the survivors of Oxcross and various garrisons to besiege Riverrun. 

So at the moment, the Lannisters have around 3,000 men currently under arms, and perhaps 9,000 men in the Westerlands who they might be able to call on. I say might, because after three years of hard fighting, most of the Westerlands houses would consider their feudal duties more than satisfied and would probably not answer the call unless there was some existential threat to the Westerlands themselves. Especially with the rulership of the West being both remote and somewhat in question. 

It’s a fair point, but A. in most of those cases, they killed the defenders outside the gates of the city as opposed to having to fight their way in, and B. city walls are far less formidable defenses than castles. 

So, no, the Dothraki at their current level of siege technology probably couldn’t take Westerosi castles. 

It’s mostly a hunch, but these are my reasons:

1. House Tarly is from the Reach, and the Reach was the heart of House Blackfyre’s support. And we know that the Golden Company has friends in the Reach. 
2. Not only is House Tarly from the Reach, but they’re marcher lords to boot, with their castle right across the mountains from House Blackmont. The Marcher Lords were the most anti-Dornish, and thus anti-Daeron and pro-Daemon faction in Westerosi politics.
3. If Savage Sam Tarly and Randyll Tarly are anything to go by, they’d also be attracted to Daemon Blackfyre’s martial persona, and turned off by Daeron II’s bookishness. 
4. Given that I think Aegon VI is going to take the Iron Throne before he comes a cropper, there needs to be something that turns the odds against the Tyrells, and only Tarly defecting would seem to do the job. 

bophtelophti:

racefortheironthrone:

Well, the name similarity would normally suggest that, but in this case, we know differently. House Jordayne is named in honor of the late Robert Jordan, sci-fi and fantasy author – its castle, the Tor, is named after Jordan’s publisher, the current lord’s first name is Robert spelled backwards, its sigil is a pen, etc. 

I don’t see why the Doylist explanation for its existence should rule out a possible Watsonian reason for its existence?

Ok, here’s the Watsonian reason why that’s not the case. 

1. House Dayne is a First Men House: “At the mouth of the Torrentine, House Dayne raised its castle on an island where that roaring, tumultuous river broadens to meet the sea. Legend says the first Dayne was led to the site when he followed the track of a falling star and there found a stone of magical powers. His descendants ruled over the western mountains for centuries thereafter as Kings of the Torrentine and Lords of Starfall.” (Dorne – Kingdoms of the First Men)
2. House Jordayne is an Andal House: “Elsewhere in the realm, the Allyrions, the Jordaynes, and the Santagars carved out holdings for themselves.” (Dorne – The Andals Arrive) 
3. The Jordaynes were not vassals of the Daynes, but rather vassals of the Yronwoods: “For nine years Mors Martell and his allies (amongst them House Fowler of Skyreach, House Toland of Ghost Hill, House Dayne of Starfall, and House Uller of the Hellholt) struggled against Yronwood and his bannermen (the Jordaynes of the Tor, the Wyls of the Stone Way, together with the Blackmonts, the Qorgyles, and many more), in battles too numerous to mention.” (Ancient History: Ten Thousand Ships)
4. The Tor of the Jordaynes is more than 600 miles distant from Starfall, in a completely different region of Dorne.