Why didn’t Viserys I try to conquer Dorne? The realm had been at peace for a while, was prosperous, and united and they had a lot of dragons. You figure some lords would be itching for a war. 

Because Viserys I is ultimately a very lazy man, who doesn’t really want to change the status quo. The furthest he’s willing to do is to throw some money at Daemon’s little adventure in the Stepstones, because that helps him deal with his annoying brother, deals with a foreign policy problem, and might get Westeros some additional territory. 

I know you think “the stone beast breathing shadow fire” refers to a literal stone dragon however, I think that is a mistake. While I do believe Melisandre will summon a kind of pseudo-dragon with blood magic, I don’t think the prophecy refers to that. I think the stone dragon in the vision refers to Jon.

Here’s my argument:

First, a dragon in a prophecy usually refers to a Targaryen as shown in Dunk and Egg.

Second, the stone dragon prophecy comes in a group of three trio prophecies: daughter of death, bride of fire and slayer of lies :

Viserys screamed as the molten gold ran down his cheeks and filled his mouth. A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him. Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman’s name… . mother of dragons, daughter of death …

Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire… . mother of dragons, slayer of lies …

Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars. A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly. A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness… . mother of dragons, bride of fire

Look at the first and third prophecy trios, and you will find each vision/prophecy deals with a single person. The first one deals with Viserys, Rhaego and Rhaegar. The third deals with Drogo, the second one I’m unsure about, maybe Tyrion, and the third deals with Jon. No person is mentioned twice in each trio. Therefore, in “slayer of lies” it would be redundant to mention Stannis again, and out of sync with the scheme being used. Is he that dangerous or formidable Dany needs to be informed twice about him?   

Third, look at the first and third trios again, and look at the last lines of each:

Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman’s name

A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness.

The former is Rhaegar whispering Lyanna’s name, and the latter is Jon on the Wall with the blue rose referencing his parents’ relationship. Thus, it can determined that the last vision of each trio relates to Jon somehow.

Fourth, in the trio of “slayer of lies,” each lie is tied to a claim for the Iron Throne, and have a significant political impact. Aegon being Rhaegar’s son ties to to his claim, and it destroys the cause for his large following. Stannis’s status as Azor Ahai ties to his claim to the Iron Throne, and the Queensmen are fervently devoted to Stannis out of the belief he is Azor Ahai. I think he will emphasize that sometime after he learns of Aegon and Daenerys, possibly with the will of the gods or rather god, superseding the laws of man, including the law of inheritance. The third vision of the stone dragon has to tie to someone’s claim to the Iron Throne, and it also must be a king, or someone of royal lineage. Stannis has already been mentioned so it can’t be him. In the case of a literal stone dragon, where is the lie in that? If you that it is the lie of it not being a real dragon, I think that would already be obvious, and wouldn’t need pointing out. The lie being revealed has to have a significant political impact when it is unveiled, something a stone dragon can’t live up to.

Fifth, if we look at the stone dragon, as I already mentioned a dragon refers to a Targaryen in prophecy. If we look at “stone,” Rickon hides on Skagos which means “stone” in the Old Tongue, Sansa hides at the Eyrie under the alias “Alayne Stone,” and Arya hides Needle under a stone in the stairs. “Stone” is connected with hiding things, especially people and identity in the Starks’ case. Thus, it can be assumed that stone dragon = hidden Targaryen.  

On top of that, I think the stone dragon regarding the prophecy Melisandre talks about relates to the stone dragon in the HotU vision. The prophecy for Azor Ahai Reborn talks about waking a dragon from stone according to Melisandre, and it seems waking a dragon from stone refers to Jon discovering his Targaryen identity akin to Daemon II’s prophecy of a dragon hatching at Whitewalls referring to Egg’s growth after his Targaryen identity is found out. 

In conclusion, I think the last lie Dany must slay is the lie of Jon being Ned’s bastard. There doesn’t need to be any explanation as to how it relates to Jon’s claim to the Iron Throne. The reveal of Jon’s heritage would have a much more significant political impact than something regarding a stone dragon brought to life by Melisandre.

Here’s my counter argument:

1. Melisandre says that she’s going to wake a stone dragon. 

2. WOIAF repeatedly mentions that there’s a dragon and/or egg underneath Winterfell ready to be awoken. 

3. These prophecies are rather straightforward, without much complex or hidden wordplay. Why does GRRM break the pattern here and nowhere else?

4. I really don’t buy the argument that stone means hidden, especially not with that kind of circumstantial cherry-picking. I could equally say that Stone refers to the castle in the Eyrie and Mya Stone, therefore the prophecy is actually that Mya Stone is a secret Targaryen.  

As with anything, look first to division of labor and specialization as driving factors. The cities of Slaver’s Bay produce skilled labor – the Astapori have a monopoly on Unsullied, the Yunkish produce sex slaves, and the Meereenese specialize in pit fighters. If you want any of those three, then rather than having to go through the expense and difficulty of setting up training operations, you just send an order. 

Meanwhile, while the cities of Slaver’s Bay focus on turning the Dothraki’s “raw materials” into “finished goods,” the rest of Essos can concentrate on finance, manufacturing, commerce, and agriculture. 

It’s a vile, immoral system but it works economically. 

Well, I address this to some extent in my essay on Dany’s campaign.

Dany’s mistakes were threefold:

1. She took *all* of the Unsullied out of Astapor, leaving her new government without a military to support it. As a result, it was easily toppled by any demagogue with a ready story and a knack with a cleaver. Slavery returned to Astapor (somewhat), and Astapor itself completely undermined her foreign policy, dragging her into a war she didn’t want to fight.
2. She left the Wise Masters in charge of Yunkai. By taking the slaves but leaving the masters, who retained most of their wealth and all of their political power, Dany created a number of problems. By having the slaves with her, she weakened her military readiness, made logistics a nightmare, and created the preconditions for epidemic disease. By leaving the masters, who both had a grudge against her and an economic, social, and political imperative to wipe out her experiment, she left an enemy in her rear who promptly re-armed, pulled together an anti-emancipation coalition, and reconquered Astapor, beginning to undo her revolution even before they laid siege to Meereen.
3. She tried to have things both ways in Meereen, liberating the slaves and giving them political power, but keeping the Great Masters intact with control over all the economic resources. The Masters reacted to what they saw as an existential threat to their identity by forming a terrorist group designed to undermine her government, make an example against freedmen and women who were active politically or trying to better themselves economically, and drive her out of Meereen through attrition. 

So if I were advising Dany, I first would have told her to leave a handful of centuries of the Unsullied behind as a garrison in Astapor. She’d still have more than enough infantry, and her council of three would have been able to remain in power as Cleon the Would-Be rotted in the cells awaiting trial for treason. Second, I would have told her to destroy the Wise Masters of Yunkai as she did the Good Masters of Astapor, and give the city (minus resupply for the army) to the freedmen, while leaving behind another couple of centuries of Unsullied to support the new government. This would have meant that Dany would have two allies to her south when she marched on Meereen, and greatly improved the logistics situation when the Meereenese begin poisoning the wells and cutting the trees. Third, I would have told her to destroy the Great Masters of Meereen save for the shavepates. This would have removed the constituency for the Sons of the Harpy to form, and would have allowed the freedmen of Meereen to become economically self-sufficient through redistribution of the Masters’ estates. 

From this point on, whatever else Dany chose to do or had to deal with, she’d at least have the major cities of Slaver’s Bay united and loyal to her cause. If she wants to stay in Meereen, great, she’s got two cities to work out trade deals with and if New Ghis or Volantis want to start trouble, she’s got two allies to back her up and there’s no Yunkai to coordinate her opponents. If she wants to march west, then she only has to deal with disciplined Unsullied rather than tens of thousands of starving, plague-ridden refugees. 

Eh, the other Free Cities had their hands full trying to fight off Volantis.

I think it was more that Aegon didn’t want to have to deal with a powerful, united Volantine Empire across the Narrow Sea when his conquest started. 

RFTIT Tumblr Weekly Roundup!

Good news, folks! Dany IV is done – and will be out Monday morning. But to tide folks over in the mean time, I’ve decided to throw up a quick Tumblr roundup: Could Dorne have been peacefully integrated into Westeros before Daeron’s Conquest? If Aegon II had been a girl would there have been a Dance of the Dragons? Yes. How to successfully conquer the Stepstones. What are the chances that ASOIAF…

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Hey folks, I realized that it’s been a while since I’ve updated the blog, so I thought I’d shoot a quick note about how things have been going on: Dany IV is up to 6,000 words. Almost finished with the three fires/mounts/treasons, which is really the summit of this particular mountain so the rest should be easier going (although I have to say I think the results are worth it). Planning to put…

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Eh. The Martells were always going to be alienated, and the wedge with Ned was over the moment Lyanna died. 

Even if Robert had personally knocked in Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch’s heads with his warhammer in quid-pro-quo for marrying Cersei, Doran Martell is still a Targaryen loyalist at heart. 

That seems off. A quick search shows New Ghis as bringing four legions to the fight – the wiki says there’s six, so I may have missed two – but I don’t see anywhere in the text saying a legion is 6,000 men. Given that the Unsullied are sold in thousands or in centuries, and the story of the 3,000 of Qohor, I’d lean more to a legion being 3,000 men at most. That would suggest that New Ghis has 18,000 men maximum. 

As for the Yunkish numbers, the wiki seems to be taking an average from a very blanket statement that of the 40 commanders,“some had twenty soldiers, some two hundred or two thousand.” To me, that statement is meant to suggest extreme variability and a hierarchy between the greater and middling and lesser slave owners (which would make sense, given the extreme inequalities of wealth at the top found within slave societies), so I would be very hesitant to say the average is ~750.