If Viserys had been kept in the loop about the marriage pact with Arianne, if he lands in Dorne after Robert’s death will he receive significant support outside of Dorne? The Tyrells and some stormlords have Renly, Stannis is stuck with the lords of the Narrow Sea and perhaps some stormlords, the North, Iron Islands, and the riverlands are secessionist, the Vale is isolationist, and the westerlands are for Joffrey. Is there any scenario where the secret master Doran plan amounts to something?

serfriendzonetoth:

racefortheironthrone:

Depends when he lands. If Renly is dead, Stannis is believed defeated and confined to the North, then yes there could well be a Targaryen restoration movement boiling out of the south that rolls up a disunited opposition

That seems like the current plan with Aegon and the Golden Company.

It’s also why I’ve never thought Tyrion’s plan, which Aegon seems to be following, was all that bad.

Well, Tyrion’s plan means Aegon doesn’t marry Dany and get a dragon…

(About Freys) How come? Walder always talked of sending his family away because there are too many.

He does, but in the context of marriage alliances which strengthen the family. But if we look at the Red Wedding, he couldn’t have done it without dozens of family members he could trust implicitly to help carry it out, or to marry and/or occupy Riverlands castles in the aftermath to secure his position.

Do you think the plan Asha tries to sell at the Kinsmoot would have worked? Even if the Boltons are out of the picture, I don’t think the North would be willing to ally with the Ironborn after what they think Theon did to Bran and Rickon.

It might have worked at the beginning of ACOK, not halfway through AFFC.

Why isn’t the Night’s Watch teeming with the Freys that occupy the bottom rungs of the succession ladder? You’d think Walder would be more than happy to let them be someone else’s problem.

Walder believes that keeping family close to hand is good for the family.

If Viserys had been kept in the loop about the marriage pact with Arianne, if he lands in Dorne after Robert’s death will he receive significant support outside of Dorne? The Tyrells and some stormlords have Renly, Stannis is stuck with the lords of the Narrow Sea and perhaps some stormlords, the North, Iron Islands, and the riverlands are secessionist, the Vale is isolationist, and the westerlands are for Joffrey. Is there any scenario where the secret master Doran plan amounts to something?

Depends when he lands. If Renly is dead, Stannis is believed defeated and confined to the North, then yes there could well be a Targaryen restoration movement boiling out of the south that rolls up a disunited opposition

I’m assuming that Braavos (the City) was attacked sometime during the Century of Blood. Everyone keeps going on about Braavos’ excellent defenses, with her navy and the Titan (sea-wall islands included) making her near indestructible, yet she has one obvious, potentially crippling weakness. The Sweetwater River, the aqueduct feeding the city, if taken out could cripple Braavos for years. Is this a viable option to combat Braavos’ seemingly unbreakable reputation?

I would say that it’s a good rule of thumb that, given Braavos’ survival and indeed dominance of a continental political world that is near-constantly at war, someone in Braavos has probably thought about this rather obvious weakness and has done something about it.

I would imagine the Braavosi Coastland absolutely includes the source of the Sweetwater River, and that they have well fortified that, keep a close watch on the Norvoshi to make sure that they don’t make a push, and bribe the Norvoshi government regularly to make sure that anyone else who tries, dies.

As regards Tywin’s plan for securing Winterfell, shouldn’t Tyrion have been sent to join the northern war against the ironborn to build up his and the lannister’s credibility with them prior to taking his seat?

Right after the Lannisters orchestrated the Red Wedding?

Tyrion would “die of his wounds” after the first battle.

How many warships do you think the Vale can throw in a war? The Stormlands? The crownlands? Could all of these combined be a threat to Braavos?

I think the Vale’s fleet is pretty small, especially after the Battle of Gulltown in the Conquest and the Stormlands fleet is smaller.

After the destruction of the Velaryon strength, the Crownlands can pull together ~10 warships. Really, only the Royal Fleet, with its 200-odd warships, could be a threat.

I don’t think Tywin would have accepted Tyrion leaving with Sansa for the Free Cities, seeing that without the Purple Wedding, Winterfell should probably be secured, and the fArya plot would not be needed. Which would be pretty interesting, because in this scenario I could certainly see Ramsay trying to kill Tyrion and get Sansa for himself. Of course, Purple Wedding, trial, crossbow, so none of that happened.

Well, keep in mind that Tyrion going to Winterfell was supposed to happen *after* Roose had fought off the Ironborn and been weakened in the process, so it wasn’t immediate.

You mention in the footnotes to your ‘The Blacks and the Reds’ series that it’s hard to believe that the house died out in the male line. But is it really that surprising? At least three of the seven sons (Aegon, Aemon, and Daemon II) had no children (killed as pre-teens or homosexual). Haegon I had at least two sons (one of whom was Daemon III), we know nothing about Aenys’ possible children, and then there are two unnamed ones (probably killed in one of the rebellions?). Not very secure.

That’s kind of my point. Between Haegon, Daemon III, Aenys, and the two unnamed sons of Daemon I, you should expect some male children.