If Southron Ambitions was an attempt at a Magna Carta and/or a permanent Great Council that puts more power into the hands of the Lords Paramount, why didn’t Jon Arryn implement the idea after Robert’s Rebellion?

A good question, and one of the better strikes against the theory. 

A couple potential answers:

1. Robert wasn’t on board, and with Rickard dead, Eddard in the North, and Hoster injured, there wasn’t enough of a coalition to push him. 

2. Jon Arryn changed his mind once he had the royal government in his hands, and the king was no longer a violent lunatic. 

If more realms than just the Reach and the Westerlands had fought at the Field of Fire do you think it might have gone differently, that they might have been successful in stopping the Targaryen invasion?

Hell no. That just ups the body count. If you’re trying to defeat Aegon’s Conquest you don’t do it with large-scale field battles, because that’s just a target for dragonfire. 

You do it with Dornish tactics. Split up your armies, abandon most of your castles (Casterly Rock being a noted exception) hide in wildernesses and inside populations, ambush his armies and then vanish rather than try to hold territory, stretch his forces out and then strike where the dragons are not. Wear him down and pick off Targaryens where you can. 

I just can’t get behind the Blackfyre Rebellion as a mere reaction to the Dornish Treaty and not the last gasp of the corrosion of Aegon. Why not a outcry and rebellion when Daeron dies, when Baelor agrees, when Aegon whores high maidens? Like the rise of rising for the Love of Daenaerys, years to late to be real.

What makes the reaction mere, exactly? 

When Daeron died: “News soon reached King’s Landing of King Daeron’s death and the rout of his remaining forces. The outrage that followed was swiftly directed at the Dornish hostages. At the command of the King’s Hand, Prince Viserys, they were thrown into the dungeons to await hanging. The Hand’s eldest son, Prince Aegon, even delivered the Dornish girl he had made his paramour to his father to await execution.”

Baelor: “Even as his lords and council cried for vengeance, Baelor publicly forgave his brother’s killers and declared that he meant to “bind up the wounds” of his brother’s war and make peace with Dorne.”

Aegon: “Aegon turned his attention to Dorne, using the hatred for the Dornishmen that still burned in the marches, the stormlands, and the Reach to suborn some of Daeron’s allies and use them against his most powerful supporters.”

Aegon IV didn’t manufacture this feeling out of whole cloth – in living memory, 50,000 Westerosi had died in Dorne, along with them a king murdered under a peace banner. That doesn’t happen without generating strong emotions, just as the events of Robert’s Rebellion created a drive for Northern independence or a Dornish desire for revenge against the usurpers or the events of the Greyjoy Rebellion the invasion of the North. 

And those events also took time – 17 years passed between Rickard Stark’s burning and Robb Stark being acclaimed King in the North, 10 years between the Greyjoy Rebellion and the invasion of the North, 17 years between the death of Elia and the likely invasion of King’s Landing by the Dornish. 

Simon Rumble Asks: Thoughts on Star Wars: The Force Awakens?

Have you seen it yet?

Yep, saw it, really liked it, went to a rewatch party of the Original Trilogy the next week.

– Loved the visual style, very much felt like New Hope but with the modern capacity to do the Millenium Falcon in wild dogfights that wasn’t possible in 1977.

– I actually liked that it was so close to New Hope, but playing with all the characters and recombining elements: Han being Obi-Wan, Rey being Luke but with elements of Han too, Poe being a bit of Han and a bit of Leia, Finn having a bit of all three. 

– Really liked Kylo Ren, but it took some thinking to wear away some of my issues. Still kind of liked it better when he was wearing the mask.

– Rey is not a Mary Sue. Her power set is almost exactly the power set of Luke and Anakin, and there’s a reason for that. 

– Disappointed that Phasma was given so little to do. Not original to me, but there’s absolutely no reason why the Storm Trooper with the Shock Baton who fights Finn couldn’t have been Phasma, and the character arcs work better if it had been. 

– 

Takodana/Maz Kanata. I feel almost heretical for saying it, but I don’t think the music in the bar hit the same spot that the Cantina song did. Maz feels a bit underused, but I’ve learned that they cut out 45 minutes of material and I think that’s there along with how Poe Dameron got off Jakku and a bunch of Leia stuff at the HQ. The vision sequence is great and I think will be obsessed about until Episode VIII comes out. 

– Thought that the space part of the attack on the Starkiller Base was undercooked a bit. Very noticeable how few X-Wings and Tie Fighters were involved. While I know you need to avoid the overbusy compositions of the Prequels, it felt smaller than a New Hope’s Deathstar sequence, and should have been as big. 

– Loved everything with the showdown between Ren and Han and then Ren and Finn and Rey. 

How does Tywin react if he finds out Joff or Cersei ordered Tyrion assassinated? As in, actually finds out they gave the order, not just hearing “oh Tyrion died bravely on the field”. And for that matter, how would Jaime take it? Happy New Year! May the Seven/Old Gods/R’Hollor bless the coming year for you and the blog!

And you as well!

I think Jaime would take it worse because he loves Tyrion. But in both cases, it creates a difficulty. Practically, a kinslayer King or Queen Regent is really bad news – it creates instability in the ruling circle, if it ever gets out it worsens an already bad public relations situation, and it shows either of them can’t really be trusted in moments of crisis.

Cersei’s Regency can be ended a lot easier than Joffrey can be made irrelevant, since he’s the King and needs to be physically present for ceremonies, siring heirs, etc. 

So Tywin taking up the Regency seems likely, but I don’t know what they do to Joffrey. I don’t know Tywin would be willing to let him sire an heir and then have him killed off. 

oneminutetomidknight notes:

“Anonymous asked: Stefan Sasse: By the way, Joffrey ordered Mandon Moore. Cersei is railing so much against incompetent underlings in AFFC that she surely would have spared a thought for Mandon Moore, the stupid-ass fuck who didn’t save her from the volonqar.

I am leaning in that direction now.“ 

I know the show isn’t always a great barometer but Season 3 near enough states that it was Joffrey who ordered it, which is more evidence that it is canon in the books too

Good point. 

One of the sentences from your What If’s got me thinking. Let’s say that the: “Littlefinger, he’d better run and hope the Gulltown navy can keep the Lannisters out of the Vale.” scenario plays out as written and there are no Lords Declarant to just cut off Littlefingers head and send it back to Kings Landing. Could the Lannister-Tyrell alliance take the Vale? Assuming that certain Lannister/Tyrell forces have to continue on as OTL beforehand? Especially with the Valemen on the defensive?

The normal difficulty with taking the Vale is the Mountains of the Moon acting as a barrier. If you can make a landing in the east, as the Andals did, you’ve got a lot of room to maneuver in the valley. 

Now, the main difficulty is about resource management and timing: if you really wanted to win, you need to send at least 60,000 men and be ready to carry out some long sieges, which means you don’t have those men to deal with the Starks and the Ironborn and Jon Connington. So even in that scenario, it might be that the Lannisters and Tyrells win some initial victories, put the Eyrie and the other major castles under siege, and then run out of steam later on when they get distracted by other threats, giving the Valemen a chance to regroup. 

On the other hand, I don’t know if anyone other than Lysa Arryn would fight to save Littlefinger. If the King on the Iron Throne sends a public letter condemning Littlefinger as a kingslayer and traitor, you’re probably going to get the Lords Declarant Plus declaring that Lady Arryn is being held hostage by the evil Littlefinger, let’s go save her.