I would imagine it would be a gentler Red Wedding indoors, with the noble guests thrown in chains rather than being murdered, although the outdoors part would probably be unchanged b/c Walder would need Robb’s army destroyed so that they don’t put the Twins under siege.
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Hello Maester Steven, I’d like to ask what do you think of The Dragon Demands’ videos?
I find myself generally in agreement with his takes about some of the ways the show has gone wrong – not in every detail, I disagree about whether Littlefinger is supposed to be a creep (and here I think GRRM’s post-writing statements suggest that he didn’t quite get what was in his head down on the page), although I agree the LF plot was terrible – and his research on production issues is quite useful.
Maester Steven, given that Lady Whent is described as having let Harrenhal go to wrack and ruin for want of funds to maintain it (not to mention the fact that she submitted quite tamely to Lannister Forces) is it not possible that the reason we nowhere hear of the Host of Harrenhal is quite simply the Human Failure to raise those forces in a timely fashion? (or perhaps a failure to maintain the Personal Relationships so integral to a Feudal Host).
Forgive me if you’ve addressed this contingency before, but is it possible that the Riverlands low troop count relative to population isn’t a function of its underdevelopment, but rather the Riverlords’ systematic holding back troops to defend their lands from each other? That way, the Frey’s, Blackwoods, Bracken’s, etc. all have 3-4k troops, but they only ever send 2k when the Tullys call because there is so little trust among them.
There’s two problems with these headcanons:
First, these thousands of soldiers have to be somewhere. If they’re being kept at home, why don’t we see them in action when Tywin Lannister’s army is marching across the Riverlands attacking those homes? If they’re not, why don’t they show up in any battles or being recruited into various armies?
Second, if they exist, why don’t people know about them? Renly knows his feudal politics, and he immediately pegs the Riverlands at 20,000 men. If the Riverlands actually has 40,000 men available, you’d think Brynden Blackfish or Edmure or Robb or Catelyn would mention something to that effect.
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Hey folks! First bit of business: Marc my editor wanted to let you know that Amazon should have sent update emails to anyone with e-book copies of Volume I, so you should definitely go ahead and get that updated so you have the most up-to-date version. Also, work with the physical manuscript is proceeding, although some errant formatting on the website made a bunch of stuff all-caps so that has…
Why was Walder Frey planning to betray Robb before he married Jeyne Westerling? Wouldn’t that be counterproductive for the Freys?
I’ve been mulling this over in my own mind for a bit, and… hrrm.
The
thing is, I can see “Walder Frey initially doesn’t want to get involved
because he thinks Tywin Lannister will crush the untried
fifteen-year-old, but then when Robb starts handing Tywin his ass left,
right, and center Walder figures he’s lucked into a good thing and will
stick it out, and finally decides to betray Robb after Robb betrays and shames him on top of the war suddenly turning against him.”That seems like it works dramatically, narratively, and is consistent with the characters of everyone involved.
The
whole “Walder Frey was always going to stick the knife in and was
planning it from the very start” doesn’t sit that well with me, because,
well… Walder has no reason at all to like Tywin Lannister. Fear and
respect him, yes, but like him? Never. Tywin Lannister shamed Walder
Frey deeply when Tywin was all of ten years old, daring to speak against
a union with House Frey (and not even with the heir to House Frey) as
being beneath House Lannister and especially beneath his sister. And Tywin
did that publicly, in front of half the west.Walder Frey should not easily forgive that. He ought to be positively gleeful at the prospect of the Young Wolf, who is going to make one of his daughters a straight-up, full-fledged Queen, whipping the shit out of Tywin all through the Riverlands and on his home turf in the West. It is only after the triple-punch of the Blackwater, the Fords, and Jeyne Westerling he ought to go “yeah, Robb is done, time to get off this sinking ship” and not, in my opinion, before.
I’ve gone to some lengths to show that the timeline doesn’t work for Robb’s betrayal to be the catalyst. But even that to one side, GRRM’s said that Walder was going to betray Robb even if Robb hadn’t broken his oath.
Here’s the thing about Walder: yes, there’s the side of him that’s emotional and petty and vindictive, but there’s also the side of him that’s deeply cautious and cunning. So yes, he doesn’t like Tywin because Tywin shamed him, but he doesn’t want to be on the losing side of the war.
Moreover, if the price of his participation in the Red Wedding isn’t just Riverrun and Darry (and Seagard), making the Freys the undisputed lords of the Riverlands in all but name, but also making Tywin of all people have to agree to not just one but multiple marriages with the Freys, well, making Tywin sit through all those Frey weddings is just the kind of revenge Walder likes.
Because Walder Frey thought Robb would lose and didn’t want to be on the wrong side of a civil war, same reason he was late to the Trident.
I’ve gone to some lengths to show that the timeline doesn’t work for
Robb’s betrayal to be the catalyst. But even that to one side, GRRM’s
said that Walder was going to betray Robb even if Robb hadn’t broken his
oath.Oh, no, here’s the thing: I’m not disputing any of that, Steven. You’ve made that case in great detail, and you have Word of God to back it up. You are absolutely correct in a completely factual sense.
I’m saying that that being the case doesn’t sit well with me; that is, I think Martin could have made better creative decisions that make more sense and are less convoluted. As I said, I think “Walder Frey didn’t want to get involved, then events forced him to get involved, then he was cool sticking with Robb because Robb was winning and yay winning, until the war goes against Robb AND Robb betrays him, because Freys gonna Frey” is simple, straightforward, gets the job done.
“Walder Frey was always gonna betray Robb” just seems overdetermined to me, a case of gilding the lily and also adding a needless layer of complexity. Frey can’t just be a treacherous goon, he has to be the ULTIMATE treacherous goon, who was never, ever, not gonna be treacherous even if Robb was winning.
And it’s like… okay, but why bother? The Blackwater and the marriage betrayal provide plenty of incentive. Why not just use go with that? Especially since most casual readers and a lot of not-so-casual readers are gonna come to that conclusion anyway?
I apologize; I could have been much clearer that I wasn’t saying “this is the case” but rather “this isn’t the case but I think it should be the case.”
I think you’re misinterpreting something. Neither I nor GRRM are saying that Walder would betray Robb “even if Robb was winning,” but rather that he was going to betray Robb regardless of whether Robb broke his oath.
Blackwater, the sack of Winterfell…take out the marriage pact altogether, and Walder still had his reasons, is my point.
Why was Walder Frey planning to betray Robb before he married Jeyne Westerling? Wouldn’t that be counterproductive for the Freys?
Because Walder Frey thought Robb would lose and didn’t want to be on the wrong side of a civil war, same reason he was late to the Trident.
I’ve been mulling this over in my own mind for a bit, and… hrrm.
The
thing is, I can see “Walder Frey initially doesn’t want to get involved
because he thinks Tywin Lannister will crush the untried
fifteen-year-old, but then when Robb starts handing Tywin his ass left,
right, and center Walder figures he’s lucked into a good thing and will
stick it out, and finally decides to betray Robb after Robb betrays and shames him on top of the war suddenly turning against him.”That seems like it works dramatically, narratively, and is consistent with the characters of everyone involved.
The
whole “Walder Frey was always going to stick the knife in and was
planning it from the very start” doesn’t sit that well with me, because,
well… Walder has no reason at all to like Tywin Lannister. Fear and
respect him, yes, but like him? Never. Tywin Lannister shamed Walder
Frey deeply when Tywin was all of ten years old, daring to speak against
a union with House Frey (and not even with the heir to House Frey) as
being beneath House Lannister and especially beneath his sister. And Tywin
did that publicly, in front of half the west.Walder Frey should not easily forgive that. He ought to be positively gleeful at the prospect of the Young Wolf, who is going to make one of his daughters a straight-up, full-fledged Queen, whipping the shit out of Tywin all through the Riverlands and on his home turf in the West. It is only after the triple-punch of the Blackwater, the Fords, and Jeyne Westerling he ought to go “yeah, Robb is done, time to get off this sinking ship” and not, in my opinion, before.
I’ve gone to some lengths to show that the timeline doesn’t work for Robb’s betrayal to be the catalyst. But even that to one side, GRRM’s said that Walder was going to betray Robb even if Robb hadn’t broken his oath.
Here’s the thing about Walder: yes, there’s the side of him that’s emotional and petty and vindictive, but there’s also the side of him that’s deeply cautious and cunning. So yes, he doesn’t like Tywin because Tywin shamed him, but he doesn’t want to be on the losing side of the war.
Moreover, if the price of his participation in the Red Wedding isn’t just Riverrun and Darry (and Seagard), making the Freys the undisputed lords of the Riverlands in all but name, but also making Tywin of all people have to agree to not just one but multiple marriages with the Freys, well, making Tywin sit through all those Frey weddings is just the kind of revenge Walder likes.
Re – Riverlands House #2: I’ve always seen it as part of the problem in the Riverlands that there ISN’T a clear #2 or #3 house like most other regions. Instead Mallister, Frey, Bracken, Blackwood are all roughly equal to each other – the Harrenhal owner at the time might come up to the top of the heap, but given how often it changes hands they don’t have the deep roots and local loyalty of most houses even if they have gold and men.
Slight math problem there: all of those together add up to 16,000 if they’re roughly equal, 20,000 if we include Harrenhal.
But since all of the Riverlands is supposed to equal 20,000….
Who would you say was the second mightiest house in the Riverlands after Robert’s Rebellion?
Probably Hightower, maybe Redwyne.
Sorry, misread. It is late.
GRRM says it’s the Freys in ASOS, but I think he made a worldbuilding mistake in AGOT if that is the case.
Should it have been Mallister? The house that’s supposed to be able to hold off the Ironborn on its own?
Them or the Bracken/Blackwood duo that can’t be held down by the Tullys of Riverrun.
EDIT: Or Harrenhal for that matter.
To be fair, Harrenhal is probably second most powerful, but as of ASOS there was effectively no Tully Vassal in command of Harrenhal.
My problem with Harrenhal is AGOT-related. Where did Harrenhal’s forces go?
Tywin’s easy capture of Harrenhal made it sound like they just didn’t have any of note, at least not to compare to the thousands of men all of the other major houses are throwing around. Possible artifact of Martin enlarging the setting late in his world building?
Harrenhal cannot simultaneously be one of the richest fiefdoms in Westeros – as it is described in AGOT – and not have armies of note. That’s not how feudalism works.
Who would you say was the second mightiest house in the Riverlands after Robert’s Rebellion?
Probably Hightower, maybe Redwyne.
Sorry, misread. It is late.
GRRM says it’s the Freys in ASOS, but I think he made a worldbuilding mistake in AGOT if that is the case.
Should it have been Mallister? The house that’s supposed to be able to hold off the Ironborn on its own?
Them or the Bracken/Blackwood duo that can’t be held down by the Tullys of Riverrun.
EDIT: Or Harrenhal for that matter.
To be fair, Harrenhal is probably second most powerful, but as of ASOS there was effectively no Tully Vassal in command of Harrenhal.
My problem with Harrenhal is AGOT-related. Where did Harrenhal’s forces go?
Who would you say was the second mightiest house in the Riverlands after Robert’s Rebellion?
Probably Hightower, maybe Redwyne.
Sorry, misread. It is late.
GRRM says it’s the Freys in ASOS, but I think he made a worldbuilding mistake in AGOT if that is the case.
Should it have been Mallister? The house that’s supposed to be able to hold off the Ironborn on its own?
Them or the Bracken/Blackwood duo that can’t be held down by the Tullys of Riverrun.
EDIT: Or Harrenhal for that matter.
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