Your recent hypothesis on the hinterlands of the Three Daughters proposed a system similar to the Roman Latifundias. Now given what we know of the various factions within Volantis, as well as the high number of freeholders of the city-state, would Volantis also run on an analogous system? TY

Oh, beyond a shadow of a doubt and probably even more so, with fewer free farmers and a lot more slave gang-labor. The “orchards and vineyards and fields of grain” at Selhorys, Valysar, and Volon Therys are likely all tended by unfree labor. 

X-Posted from Tumblr: A Westerosi Grain Dole

X-Posted from Tumblr: A Westerosi Grain Dole

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anonymous asked: How feasible would a grain dole be in westeros? Could you have a Roman style aystem at least for a major city like King’s Landing, sort of as a primitive social safety net? Where/how could you develop this? Thanks!! Excellent question! Judging from the WOIAF, we do have some crude systems of regional redistribution of grain in times of crisis, as seen by the fact that Aegon V…

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How feasible would a grain dole be in westeros? Could you have a Roman style aystem at least for a major city like King’s Landing, sort of as a primitive social safety net? Where/how could you develop this? Thanks!!

Excellent question! 

Judging from the WOIAF, we do have some crude systems of regional redistribution of grain in times of crisis, as seen by the fact that Aegon V sent grain up to the North during a particularly bad winter. I would argue that the North’s intense attachment to guest right (and its less frequently mentioned tradition of self-euthanasia during long winters) has a lot to do with a sort of crude welfare state of seeking food and shelter at Winterfell. (We also see the Starks exercising very close control over food reserves, for example)

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But in terms of a regular grain dole, we actually have an example from Westerosi history:

“Ultimately, some have wondered if the king’s near death in Dorne did not affect his mind in some way, for as the years of his reign progressed, his decisions grew ever more zealous and erratic. Though the smallfolk loved him—he emptied the treasury regularly to fund his charitable acts, including the year when he donated a loaf of bread daily to every man and woman in the city—the lords of the realm were beginning to grow uneasy.” e

Ultimately, some have wondered if the king’s near death in Dorne did not affect his mind in some way, for as the years of his reign progressed, his decisions grew ever more zealous and erratic. Though the smallfolk loved him—he emptied the treasury regularly to fund his charitable acts, including the year when he donated a loaf of bread daily to every man and woman in the city—the lords of the realm were beginning to grow uneasy.

So Baelor the Blessed supposedly bankrupted the monarchy by (among other things) providing a bread dole for the population of King’s Landing. Now, according to AGOT, a tart costs around three coppers, which I’ve been using as a pre-war price for a loaf of bread. That would suggest that it would cost around 127 dragons a day to buy everyone in King’s Landing a loaf of bread, or 46,355 gold a year. 

At that rate, a grain dole for the whole of Westeros would cost 3.7 million gold a year, or 0.7% of GDI, or 7% of total tax revenue. This seems surprisingly affordable, although based on my old estimates of royal income, it would bankrupt the monarchy. 

However, you have to keep two things in mind: first, it’s all based on the estimate of how much bread costs. If bread costs more than 3 coppers a loaf as I had originally estimated, the price skyrockets. Second, I could be quite wrong about GDI and thus tax revenue.

So let me see if I can approach it from another angle. I’ve estimated that the average yearly income is between 3-5 gold. During the Ancien Regime, the average worker spent about half their income on bread, although this could spike as high as 88% during crop failures. (That suggests that the average Westerosi spends 48 coppers (or ~1 silver) to 80 coppers (or 1.5 silver) a day on bread.) 

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In turn, this would suggest that a grain dole would cost 60 to 100 million dragons a year. That’s 11.4 to 19% of GDI, or 114% to 190% of total tax revenue.

So I’m going to go out on a limb and say that either three coppers is the wrong price for a loaf of bread, or the smallfolk of Westeros eat 16 tarts a day, which seems unhealthy. 

Do you think the Lannisters’ limitless gold wealth has promoted rentierism in the Westerlands analogous to that seen in oil-rich countries today? Are the Lannisters less dependent on their bannermen than other Great Houses? Tywin’s personal grudge against loans notwithstanding, would you predict such wealth to lead to redistributive rather than productive tendencies in the Westerlands economy? While a seeming strength, has it prevented the development of strong institutions in the long run?

Excellent question! No, it hasn’t, for the most part, because of the extreme financial conservativism of House Lannisters, which I’ve covered here. This is the key quote:

“…some borrowed heavily from Casterly Rock, then failed to repay the loans. When it was seen that Lord Tytos was willing to extend such debts, even forgive them, common merchants from Lannisport and Kayce began to beg for loans as well.

Given their enormous liquid reserves, it came as something of a shock to find out that it was seen as a major (and negative) departure from policy for the Lannisters to loan money to their commercial sector. While dumping all of their reserve onto the market at once would be a bad idea, not providing any liquidity to the merchant class has beyond a shadow of a doubt held back the economic development of the Westerlands economy.

So how do the Lannisters use their wealth? Well, certainly they are less dependent on their bannermen, although as Tytos showed, it’s not a good idea for them to let their bannermen get away with not paying their taxes. But mostly, the Lannisters use their wealth for political advantage, lending out money to houses within and without the Westerlands in exchange for political favors. 

Scott Eric Kaufman: He helped us see and understand things. Rest in Power.

graphicpolicy:

scott-eric-kaufman-featured

The brilliant Scott Eric Kaufman died on Monday and fandoms are in mourning for him. Scott was a regular guest on Graphic Policy Radio with good reason: he was incredibly insightful about things others missed. Scott was a Professor of Visual Rhetoric. That means he analyzed how images communicate ideas. He also was a journalist and editor at Salon. He was a humorist– the human…

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