goodqueenaly:

Thanks for the question, Anon.

Internal Northern conflicts and Stark infighting, it seems. At some point during the reign of Daeron II, the Skagosi rose in rebellion against Winterfell, and suppression of that rebellion cost the life of Lord Barthogan Stark (called “Barth Blacksword”), as well as thousands of others. We don’t know if this rebellion preceded or came after the First Blackfyre Rebellion, but either way, its existence could explain in part why the Starks and their bannermen avoided this civil war, while having participated in the Dance of the Dragons. Thousands being killed means thousands more engaging in the conflict. Have the rebellion end before the Blackfyre Rebellion, and the North is too busy patching itself up to spare its legions either for Daemon or Daeron; have the Skagosi rise up during or not too long after the Blackfyre Rebellion, and the Starks may have been too distracted by the discontented grumblings/open warfare of the Skagosi to risk sending their best men south of the Neck.

What’s more, Yandel tells us in TWOIAF that “Rickon [Stark]’s death outside of Sunspear in one of the final battles [of the Conquest of Dorne] was lamented in the North for years to come because of the troubles that dogged the reigns of his half brothers”. There seems to have been a Stark succession crisis after the death of Cregan the One-Day Hand, with Cregan’s sons from his final marriage jockeying for the lordship of Winterfell (and two of them marrying the legitimate Stark heiresses). Again, depending on what was happening within House Stark, any of the wolf brothers might have been reluctant to lead troops south: if the Lord of Winterfell led his troops to fight for either side, one of his brothers might have taken the chance to lead a coup against him, and the lord would return to find the North hailing the Stark in Winterfell as the true Lord of the North.

(Incidentally, on the Redgrass Field podcast ep, @racefortheironthrone​ referred to this Stark infighting as a “cold war”, which had the best dry, mocking laugh I’ve ever heard from @warsofasoiaf​.) 

The Queen Regent (NFriel)

I forgot I made that joke! Ah, good times. Good times.

Well, the Black Dragon was winning for pretty much all of the First Rebellion, and was barely stopped at Redgrass Field, as I explain here.

Because they’re really useful in battle. And if you don’t ever use it, why get it in the first place?

Between Laboratory of Politics and the Dany chapters of ACOK, I feel like I did Qarth justice. 

goodqueenaly:

Thanks for the question, Anon.

Well, for one, we don’t know what marital arrangements Jon Arryn was hoping to make for nephew Elbert (presuming that Elbert was not married when he died). There’s no mention of a potential Lysa-Elbert match, though surely the thought must have passed Arryn’s mind at least once (even if ambitious Hoster wanted richer Jaime Lannister for his younger daughter). If indeed the conspirators saw the advantage of bringing in Tywin, then Jon Arryn might have thought to win Cersei as a bride for Elbert. Certainly as well, even if Elbert married someone of lesser distinction in this generation, his children might well be wed to the children of Brandon and Catelyn, or Robert and Lyanna.

But even without specific marital arrangements, Jon Arryn benefited from inclusion in the SA pact. For one, if the purpose of the pact was to protect the Lords Paramount against the whims of the Iron Throne, then the Vale gained the assurance that Riverrun, Winterfell, and Storm’s End would protest on its behalf. For another, Jon Arryn was put in a position of key influence over Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon: fostering them from an early age, Jon Arryn had the ability to shape their views and mindsets, to mold this next generation into worthy heirs of the senior one. He would give them their political education, and in turn they would remember him as not only a beloved father figure, but a crucial adviser and shrewd elder statesman. There are worse fates than grooming the future Lord of Winterfell’s natural first adviser and the future Lord of Storm’s End and close heir to the throne.

The Queen Regent (NFriel)

Seconded. Quick addition:

Keep in mind, fostering isn’t just hosting someone. Jon Arryn became the foster father of Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon, and they became his foster sons. Westerosi treat foster relationships as equivalent to blood relations, hence why Theon is called a kinslayer for “killing” his foster brothers Bran and Rickon. 

So it’s just as close an alliance as any marriage. 

The Great Spring Sickness is a parallel for the Black Death (bubonic plague).

Butterfly fever sounds like a cross between Kuru and Ebola.

Shaking sickness is epilepsy.

Grey plague/greyscale is a weird combination of the Black Death and leprosy. 

Redspots is chickenpox.

The pox is, well, syphilis.

It gives them enhanced status – from now on, the Tyrells have royal blood, which elevates them above the Tullys and their ilk. 

Dynastic marriage alliances, being open-handed and balanced in royal favors, consistent, transparent, and even-handed royal justice, etc. 

Good question!

I would lean towards yes, because it seems like the more relevant question is what the individual’s family (from whom they’re getting the money) thinks. Compare Gerion vs. Tyrion, for example.