Paid him well for his services and then made sure he spent the rest of his life singing that song and only that song. 

If they were well-organized, like the Golden Company, yes. 

But the Bloody Mummers are wild dogs who can barely think beyond their next atrocity. 

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

Unlikely. For one thing, they’ve already taken over the Church, so why split from it? More likely, it’s closer to Savonarola or John Ball – a religiously-infused reaction to the collapse of the social contract. 

I am not, of course, anonymous, but I can envision a world in which the splitting of the Faith happens in response to the Sparrows, rather than initiated by them.

The High Sparrow becoming the High Septon was more or less a palace coup. Other septons in other places may or may not kindly to the new regime.

I forget where you did it, Steven, but I believe you’ve written that a faith that declares all men equal before god needs to have a certain amount of hypocrisy built into it in order to function in a society where actually trying to impose that idea on everyone, from the highest to the lowest, would cause said society to implode. (Or something like that.) The High Sparrow can demonstrate a certain amount of political flexibility, but he seems to be highly interested in what would be a revolutionary makeover of Westerosi faith and culture, where living by the Faith of the Seven is actually enforced in a “pure” form.

I don’t think a lot of lords and well-heeled septons are going to take kindly to that at all. I can absolutely see them breaking away from the Great Sept and going their own way, especially if they can secure secular backing from a Great House in exchange for spiritual backing. I would be willing to bet a certain amount of money that the septons in the Starry Sept are looking at the diktats coming out of King’s Landing these days and going “what in the seven hells is going on?” I don’t think the Dornish are going to take kindly to the Faith actually trying to impose its notions of sexual purity on their culture. Etc.

That said, this is the kind of thing that could happen in theory but is unlikely to happen in the actual narrative we have; I don’t see a place for this kind of religious plotline at all, there’d be no reason for it. It’s plausible but probably won’t actually happen.

That assumes they last a longer time than the Shepherd and his flock. 

I don’t think they will. 

Unlikely. For one thing, they’ve already taken over the Church, so why split from it? More likely, it’s closer to Savonarola or John Ball – a religiously-infused reaction to the collapse of the social contract. 

I wouldn’t necessarily say we only see the bigger castles – I think we’re mostly given the castles that have been mentioned in the text, and even then they generally don’t map all but the most frequently mentioned. 

An interesting point of reference here would be to compare the Riverlands in the official Lands of Ice and Fire to say, Ser Mountain Goat’s “speculative map”:

The sheer density of the latter compared to the former speaks for itself. 

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

How much trade does the iron throne do? Like what percentage of gdp would a typical medieval state have as imports and exports? What does this trade consist of? And how effected would westeros be if it were completely cut off from the rest of the world?

Well, if @warsofasoiaf asks…

The Iron Throne doesn’t do much trade itself, since it’s a government that derives most of its revenues from taxes as opposed to trading directly on its own account. Yes, Littlefinger has gotten into the wool trade, for example, but it’s unclear how much if any of that revenue actually goes to the crown instead of to Littlefinger.

If you’re asking how much international trade Westeros does, I think it’s rather low given that A. the overwhelming majority of the population works in subsistence agriculture, B. as Westeros is rather underdeveloped, there are severe limits to the spread of markets due to the inability to get goods to market, and C. Westeros’ exports are almost entirely natural resources (food, wine, wool, timber, etc.) and its imports are higher valued-added manufacturing. 

If you’re asking for a percent GDP figure, there are estimates that 16th century England had a foreign trade of less than 8% and that was after a huge surge in the wool trade and we haven’t seen in Westeros anything like the social and economic transformation that the rise of the commercial wool trade had on England from the 14th through 16th centuries. Likewise, I’ve seen estimates that the agrarian economy (i.e, just that part of the economy that came from producing crops) made up 85% or more of English GDP in 1300, which also suggests a low figure for Westeros.

Yes, Littlefinger has gotten into the wool trade, for example, but it’s unclear how much if any of that revenue actually goes to the crown instead of to Littlefinger. 

I would submit humbly that crown revenues grew so much under Littlefinger (something like tenfold, I believe?) that either Aerys’ administration was a shockingly corrupt and ineffective thing even by the standards of corrupt bureaucracies (which is, of course, entirely possible) or that Littlefinger has to be funneling at least some of the revenue from his merchant ventures on behalf of the crown back to said crown.

I mean. I think we can all agree that there’s a shit-ton of embezzling going on on Littlefingers part, probably with the tacit approval of both the throne and council. (Perk of the job, as long as we get our cut, etc.) At the very least, I’d be very surprised if he weren’t doing things like underwriting zero-interest loans to himself. But I don’t think the massive income stream he directed towards the crown is entirely due to structural reform; I think Littlefinger is actually generating value-add.

Which is real smart of him. Littlefinger is the smallest of small lords, or, well, he was, and he’s thoroughly unlikable, seems to go out of his way to be unlikable (I’m having trouble thinking of anyone at court who doesn’t think he has a really punchable face) which means his position has heretofore been dependent on being known as a wizard of coin.

(Sidebar: now that I think of it, Littlefinger really dialed his assholery back once he got to the Vale. There’s a lot less quipping, a lot less smarm, a lot less deliberate provocation of people. He acts like a regular person and not a big bag of dicks.)

The essay I link above – “Who Stole Westeros?” – is pretty detailed about what’s going on here, because the big issue isn’t embezzlement, it’s fraud. (Primarily accounting fraud and loan fraud). 

See the thing about these numbers is that, as you said, there’s something fishy about giant increases in revenue on that scale. Now you’ve pointed to one option – that Littlefinger must be diverting the money, which he definitely is. But there’s a bigger issue: what if he just made the money up? After all, the only thing saying these tenfold revenue increases, first at Gulltown where it made his reputation, and then at King’s Landing where it made him indepensible, are real is Littlefinger’s books. And he knows that noblemen don’t understand accounting. 

He takes advantage of a boost in revenue due to a long summer by proclaiming it to be more than anyone’s seen, the bosses see treasure rooms stuffed with gold so they’re happy (and not working out the mental math as to whether this adds up), he gets a promotion, and equally importantly, he creates the on-paper preconditions for huge loans. The Iron Bank and the Faith aren’t about to loan out huge sums to a king who can’t pay them back, but if revenues are up by 1000%, they’re not going to quibble. 

And that’s when he starts in on the loan fraud…

The essay I link above – “Who Stole Westeros?” – is pretty detailed about what’s going on here, 

Some of us refuse to engage with Kindle in any way for philosophical reasons. 🙂

After all, the only thing saying these tenfold revenue increases, first
at Gulltown where it made his reputation, and then at King’s Landing
where it made him indepensible, are real is Littlefinger’s books. 

Well, the Gulltown revenues would have had to be at least semi-legitimate unless Littlefinger had compromised whoever was Jon Arryn’s Master of Coin back in King’s Landing was, right?

Westerosi nobility clearly have some familiarity with paper instruments (Quentyn knows enough about banking to make deposits and get a receipt, Lord Beric hands out IOUs) but for the most part they’re going to do business in cold hard cash. So Gulltown Littlefinger can’t just claim “oh sure, I’ve got the money, you can just make a note in your ledger,” right? When he says “I’ve increased revenue tenfold!” King’s Landing is going to say “Great! We need the money, put it on the next ship,” yes? And while noblemen don’t understand accounting, they understand “there aren’t as many physical dragons in this physical chest as Baelish said there’d be, certainly not ten times as many as the last guy was sending us every quarter.”

Once Petyr is sitting in the big chair, he can of course do whatever he wants to as long as he can put gold in Robert’s hands every time Robert extends them. “A hundred large for a tournament? No problem, Your Grace!” But to actually get there first he’d have had to either legitimately increase revenue or at the very least run an equally impressive scam where he gets the money from elsewhere in Gulltown and claims it comes from customs and excise.

I’m not disputing in any way that Littlefinger is up to his neck in all sorts of frauds and scams. I’m just saying that there’s probably a quasi-legitimate revenue stream at the bottom of it (or that there once was) and that he’s diverting enough of it to the crown to cover his tracks. I don’t think its flim-flam all the way down. (Part of my read on Littlefinger in general is that there’s three layers to him; the top layer is “he’s an asshole, but he’s good at his job,” the middle layer is “holy shit, this guys a con man, a swindler” and the bottom layer is “… oh, hell, he doesn’t actually care about the money, he’s playing the game of thrones at a super goddamn high level.” Not a lot of people have drilled all the way to three yet, in-setting.)

Some of us refuse to engage with Kindle in any way for philosophical reasons. 🙂

Well, others of us are trying to make a living here!

Well, the Gulltown revenues would have had to be at least semi-legitimate unless Littlefinger had compromised whoever was Jon Arryn’s Master of Coin back in King’s Landing was, right?

Depends on whether said Master of Coin, his “beleaguered predecessor,” wants to rock the boat, can carry out an audit, and can understand the audit when he gets it – and LF is very good at cooking the books. 

Westerosi nobility clearly have some familiarity with paper instruments (Quentyn knows enough about banking to make deposits and get a receipt, Lord Beric hands out IOUs) but for the most part they’re going to do business in cold hard cash. So Gulltown Littlefinger can’t just claim “oh sure, I’ve got the money, you can just make a note in your ledger,” right? When he says “I’ve increased revenue tenfold!” King’s Landing is going to say “Great! We need the money, put it on the next ship,” yes? And while noblemen don’t understand accounting, they understand “there aren’t as many physical dragons in this physical chest as Baelish said there’d be, certainly not ten times as many as the last guy was sending us every quarter.”

As I point out in the essay, if Tyrion, one of the best educated noblemen in Westeros, can’t follow Littlefinger’s accounting, then your average nobleman doesn’t actually understand finance beyond a rudimentary level. 

As for the cash: I think he did “run an equally impressive scam where he gets the money from elsewhere in Gulltown and claims it comes from customs and excise,” probably by representing bribery and kickback money and contributions from his own trading as ordinary revenue. Also, a good bit of the coin is going to be kept in Gulltown. And as a last resort, you can adulterate the currency.

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

How much trade does the iron throne do? Like what percentage of gdp would a typical medieval state have as imports and exports? What does this trade consist of? And how effected would westeros be if it were completely cut off from the rest of the world?

Well, if @warsofasoiaf asks…

The Iron Throne doesn’t do much trade itself, since it’s a government that derives most of its revenues from taxes as opposed to trading directly on its own account. Yes, Littlefinger has gotten into the wool trade, for example, but it’s unclear how much if any of that revenue actually goes to the crown instead of to Littlefinger.

If you’re asking how much international trade Westeros does, I think it’s rather low given that A. the overwhelming majority of the population works in subsistence agriculture, B. as Westeros is rather underdeveloped, there are severe limits to the spread of markets due to the inability to get goods to market, and C. Westeros’ exports are almost entirely natural resources (food, wine, wool, timber, etc.) and its imports are higher valued-added manufacturing. 

If you’re asking for a percent GDP figure, there are estimates that 16th century England had a foreign trade of less than 8% and that was after a huge surge in the wool trade and we haven’t seen in Westeros anything like the social and economic transformation that the rise of the commercial wool trade had on England from the 14th through 16th centuries. Likewise, I’ve seen estimates that the agrarian economy (i.e, just that part of the economy that came from producing crops) made up 85% or more of English GDP in 1300, which also suggests a low figure for Westeros.

Yes, Littlefinger has gotten into the wool trade, for example, but it’s unclear how much if any of that revenue actually goes to the crown instead of to Littlefinger. 

I would submit humbly that crown revenues grew so much under Littlefinger (something like tenfold, I believe?) that either Aerys’ administration was a shockingly corrupt and ineffective thing even by the standards of corrupt bureaucracies (which is, of course, entirely possible) or that Littlefinger has to be funneling at least some of the revenue from his merchant ventures on behalf of the crown back to said crown.

I mean. I think we can all agree that there’s a shit-ton of embezzling going on on Littlefingers part, probably with the tacit approval of both the throne and council. (Perk of the job, as long as we get our cut, etc.) At the very least, I’d be very surprised if he weren’t doing things like underwriting zero-interest loans to himself. But I don’t think the massive income stream he directed towards the crown is entirely due to structural reform; I think Littlefinger is actually generating value-add.

Which is real smart of him. Littlefinger is the smallest of small lords, or, well, he was, and he’s thoroughly unlikable, seems to go out of his way to be unlikable (I’m having trouble thinking of anyone at court who doesn’t think he has a really punchable face) which means his position has heretofore been dependent on being known as a wizard of coin.

(Sidebar: now that I think of it, Littlefinger really dialed his assholery back once he got to the Vale. There’s a lot less quipping, a lot less smarm, a lot less deliberate provocation of people. He acts like a regular person and not a big bag of dicks.)

The essay I link above – “Who Stole Westeros?” – is pretty detailed about what’s going on here, because the big issue isn’t embezzlement, it’s fraud. (Primarily accounting fraud and loan fraud). 

See the thing about these numbers is that, as you said, there’s something fishy about giant increases in revenue on that scale. Now you’ve pointed to one option – that Littlefinger must be diverting the money, which he definitely is. But there’s a bigger issue: what if he just made the money up? After all, the only thing saying these tenfold revenue increases, first at Gulltown where it made his reputation, and then at King’s Landing where it made him indepensible, are real is Littlefinger’s books. And he knows that noblemen don’t understand accounting. 

He takes advantage of a boost in revenue due to a long summer by proclaiming it to be more than anyone’s seen, the bosses see treasure rooms stuffed with gold so they’re happy (and not working out the mental math as to whether this adds up), he gets a promotion, and equally importantly, he creates the on-paper preconditions for huge loans. The Iron Bank and the Faith aren’t about to loan out huge sums to a king who can’t pay them back, but if revenues are up by 1000%, they’re not going to quibble. 

And that’s when he starts in on the loan fraud…