Young Elvis/Old Elvis, Young Robert/Old Robert. 

Hmmm. Let me think…

I’m going to say kinslaying. 

Well, it’s not just about size – especially because fiefdoms were often non-contiguous, which makes square mileage difficult to compute. 

Take Edward IV, for example, who at the moment of his accession to the throne, was Duke of York, Earl of March (and

and Baron Mortimer of Wigmore), Earl of Cambridge, Earl of Ulster, Lord of Clare. To give you an idea of how crazy all over the place this was, let me show you on the map:

So that’s Ireland, Wales, Northern England, and Southeast England. At that level, it’s really not about square mileage it’s more about prestige, influence, income, and military manpower.

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

Nope. Renly’s campaign pitch was: A. the glamour and magnificence of his person and his court, and B. the size of his battalions, while trying to get everyone to forget about the larger implications of any of it. 

As usual, Stannis puts it best: 

“Good men and true will fight for Joffrey, wrongly believing him the true king. A northman might even say the same of Robb Stark. But these lords who flocked to my brother’s banners knew him for a usurper. They turned their backs on their rightful king for no better reason than dreams of power and glory, and I have marked them for what they are.”

In fairness to the Tyrells and the Stormlords, turning your back on your rightful king for no better reason than power, glory, and sometimes a desire to not go down with a sinking ship has a long and proud tradition in Westeros. House Tully’s entire Lord Paramountcy rests on them being the first ones to sink a knife into the Hoare‘s back, for example.

If Renly wins and he’s a shitty king, the Tyrells and the Stormlords look like fools who supported an incompetent usurper who drove the kingdom into the ground and probably caused another war shortly thereafter. If he’s middling-to-good, they got in on the ground floor of a new dynasty.

In the case of the Stormlords… I have always inferred that in any Westerosi civil war, backing your Lord Paramount’s play is, in general, the “safe” play. Even if their side loses, you can lay down the “I was only following orders” card and probably get away scot free, or maybe with a slap on the wrist. But if you bail on your Lord Paramount, the side you’re bailing for had better win, or you’ll end up like the Darrys and the Conningtons, whose lead loyalty to their King over their Lord Paramount won them massive losses of fortune, land, and status. Whereas if you stick with your Lord Paramount… well, something tells me that when Mace Tyrell bent the knee, Robert didn’t strip too many of his lords of lands and wealth despite sticking with Aerys “to the bitter end and well beyond.”

Well it’s long but it’s hardly proud – lots of people who ended up on the wrong side of the Dance or the Blackfyre Rebellions could attest to that.

But yes, the Stormlords had something of an excuse, that they were bound by feudal agreement to give service to their liege lord. The Tyrells and the Reacher Lords had none. 

opinions-about-tiaras:

I had never considered this! Thank you, Steven. I had always just figured Renly had some sort of legal (or possibly violent) scheme up his sleeve to render Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella’s claims null and void. Like getting Robert and Cersei the Westerosi equivalent of an annulment, which would render their three kids bastards post hoc.

But this makes a lot more sense.

It also makes Renly look dumber in hindsight; he really mishandled Ned Stark, didn’t he.

Renly did not understand Ned Stark at all and handled him in exactly the wrong way: 

racefortheironthrone:

Discussed here.

But here’s the short version:

1. Before he married her, Renly was scheming to get Robert to replace Cersei with Margaery.
2. Mace and Loras went along with this plan. 
3. None of this actually benefits Renly or the Tyrells unless Cersei’s children could be disinherited as well.
4. The only way that Renly could promise that to Mace and Loras is if Renly knew about the adultery/incest, which would make Joffrey et al. bastards born of incest. 

But, and this is key, the moment Robert dies without having divorced Cersei and disinherited her kids, Renly can’t admit any of this because it makes Stannis the indisputable rightful heir to the Iron Throne. 

“Strike! Now, while the castle sleeps…get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand. Protector or no, the man who holds the king holds the kingdom. We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us. The council will confirm you as Lord Protector and make Joffrey your ward.”

This is Renly talking to a man he personally saw resign the Handship rather than countenance the murder of a child, and his pitch is: let’s get a bunch of armed men and kidnap children. 

nobodysuspectsthebutterfly:

I’ve been referring to the murder of Jon Arryn often recently in discussion of the various mysteries of ASOIAF, and I know it’s a topic that can be confusing, so I figured I’d do a timeline to have a post to link to in case anyone wants to see it all laid out neatly. So… here’s everything that led to Jon Arryn’s murder, and everyone who was involved.

• Queen Cersei Lannister and her brother Jaime engage in incestuous adultery, producing children that King Robert Baratheon thinks are his – and because Cersei is queen, this is a capital crime that would result in Cersei’s, Jaime’s, and the children’s execution if it were to be discovered.
• Robert’s brother Stannis becomes suspicious of the parentage of Cersei’s children, partially due to the fact that he is very aware of what Robert’s bastards look like (as one, Edric Storm, was conceived in his wedding bed). Because Stannis thinks that Robert wouldn’t believe him if he told him, he goes to the Hand of the King, Jon Arryn, Robert’s beloved foster-father, with his suspicions.
• Jon and Stannis proceed to investigate and gather evidence. They look up other known bastards of Robert – including Gendry, an apprentice smith, and Barra, a prostitute’s infant daughter. Jon Arryn researches animal breeding, basically figuring out Mendelian genetics, dominant traits, etc, and also researches the genealogy of the great houses of Westeros, specifically earlier Baratheon/Lannister marriages. Jon Arryn goes to Grand Maester Pycelle for books and information on these subjects.
• As Stannis and Jon’s investigation gathers information, Cersei becomes aware of what’s happening, and starts making her own plans. (Note she also has to deal with the fact that Robert’s youngest brother Renly is also plotting against her, planning to bring Margaery Tyrell to court to attract Robert.)
• Jon Arryn realizes the conclusion of the investigation would mean war with the Lannisters once it was presented to the king. He makes arrangements to get his son and heir, Robert, out of King’s Landing (and also away from his mother, Lysa, who he believes has been coddling him and making him weak), and asks Stannis to foster him at Dragonstone.
• Lysa Arryn, in desperation because her beloved only child will be taken from her, begs for help from her dearest friend and would-be lover, Peter Baelish. (Who is aware of Cersei and Jaime’s adultery through his spies, and sees an opportunity to advance himself via the chaos of war.) Littlefinger convinces Lysa that if she were to kill her husband Jon, then Sweetrobin would be safe with her always, and also that they would be able to be together at last. He provides a poison, the Tears of Lys, and Lysa puts it in Jon’s cup of wine.
• The Tears of Lys works via eating away at the stomach and intestines, looking like a disease of the digestive system, and Jon Arryn becomes very ill. His personal maester, Colemon, either suspecting that Jon had been poisoned or because this is a normal treatment for that disease, begins purging him.
• Grand Maester Pycelle, who is aware of the investigation (and may have also known about the incest), believes it was Cersei that had Jon poisoned. Because he thinks Cersei wants Jon Arryn dead, Pycelle sends Maester Colemon away, with the excuse that the purging potions were too harsh on Lord Arryn’s elderly body, and treats him only with large doses of milk of the poppy.
• Jon Arryn dies, raving incoherently about the truth of what he’s discovered, begging Lysa to tell Robert.
• Cersei convinces Robert the best way to honor Jon would be to have his son, Robert’s namesake, fostered with her father Tywin at Casterly Rock, in actuality to hold him as a hostage in case Jon had told Lysa anything. Lysa takes her son and maester and household and flees to the Eyrie, but not before writing a coded letter to her sister Catelyn Stark per Littlefinger’s instructions, blaming the Lannisters for Jon Arryn’s murder. (One member of her household, Jon’s former squire Hugh, stays in King’s Landing – possibly paid by Littlefinger to be a red herring?)
• Robert (and most of the court) leaves for the North to ask Ned Stark to be his new Hand. Stannis, believing the Lannisters had Jon killed, leaves for Dragonstone and starts making his own plans.

Think that’s it. Anyone have anything I missed, let me know and I’ll add it.

Excellent reference guide. 

I would make some additions, some more solid than others:

• I would add that a number of people knew about the affair other than Jon and Stannis: Varys knew, Littlefinger knew, Renly knew, Pycelle knew. Cersei and Jaime were clearly not that good at being discrete.  
• There is a suggestion in Tyrion III that it’s possible Stannis became suspicious of Joffrey et al. because of either Varys or Littlefinger or some other conspirator at court: “Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.”
• I’m of the opinion that Ser Hugh was Littlefinger’s man on the inside of Jon Arryn’s investigation. Hence why he was able to stay in the capitol to be neatly taken out in front of Ned Stark. It would also explain how Littlefinger is able to intervene with such precise timing to prevent word from getting out prematurely.