It’s the rational solution, which is why Tywin absolutely wouldn’t do it. Very similar situation to Randyll Tarly and Samwell. 

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

If Tywin died suddenly before AGOT starts, who would inherit Casterly Rock? Jaimie is out, so would it go to Tyrion or Kevan?

ravenking1771 said:Hey there I saw the recent question about the Casterly Rock inheritance and I wanted to know how firmly did the medieval aristocracy adhere to inheritance I.e. Tyrion is Tywin eldest eligible make child and thus from a legal perspective his heir but Tywin does not consider him and if Tywin died before the events of the novel Tyrion would no doubt be challenged if not passed over by his family, so I wanted know how firmly did these governments respect inheritance rights?

Since I’ve gotten a couple questions about this, I figure I should probably consolidate them into one response rather than repeat myself. It depends on what Tywin set out in his will, and the balance of political power when it comes to both the claimants and whoever might enforce and/or recognize the validity of the will. 

Certainly, Tyrion would have a very strong claim under Westerosi law; he is the oldest eligible male child of the deceased, and he had done nothing that would make him ineligible (like joining the Night’s Watch or the Citadel or the Faith). 

However, whoever Tywin named in the will would also have a claim, and that claim would be buttressed by that person’s own lineage – if it’s Cersei, proximity would no doubt be stressed as well as the will; if it’s Kevan, then he’d be pointing to being the son of Tytos as well as Tywin’s brother as well as the wil. And so on. 

But the balance of power is important: if Tywin dies pre-AGOT, Cersei is going to lobby for her own line (whether for herself or one of her children), and Robert might give in or he might give it to Tyrion out of spite, or he might want to give it to Kevan b/c Kevan fits his mental model of a strong Warden of the West (in the same way that he didn’t want a sickly boy to hold the Wardenship of the East). At the same time, Jon Arryn’s wishes would play a large role in that situation; he’s more of a traditionalist, so he might want it to go to Tyrion because Andal law says so and wills that go against the law lead to civil war and disorder. 

If Tywin dies pre-Purple Wedding, it depends when exactly. If it’s after the Battle of Blackwater, Cersei is Regent and Tyrion has lost his handship, so he’s at a disadvantage. If it’s before the Battle of Blackwater, Tyrion has a significant advantage. 

However, a lot would depend on how the Lannister lords at the Rock or at Harrenhal or at King’s Landing decide to jump: do they take their cues from Kevan as the oldest male Lannister on the spot, and does that mean he gets to play kingmaker or does he go for the Rock himself? Is their misogyny stronger than their ableism or vice versa? Do they fear that Tyrion’s heirs would inherit both the Rock and Winterfell, or that Cersei’s children would inherit both the Rock and the throne and/or Storm’s End? 

One of the interesting things in this context is that Tyrion has a very real and strong talent for politicking, but he doesn’t actually ever decide to exercise, for a wide variety of reasons, until his father makes him Hand-by-proxy.

My personal belief is that it related to Tyrion’s self-loathing, that he doesn’t really believe anyone could ever view him as worth anything so why bother trying? Coupled with the fact that Tyrion REALLY doesn’t want to directly confront his fathers hatred for him. Trying to maneuver to well-place himself for any succession dispute would mean he has to acknowledge that there might BE a succession dispute, that his father has written down on paper somewhere “Fuck Tyrion, he’s no heir of mine.” And he wouldn’t want to bear that.

I think this is the reason Tyrion has done very little spadework, as it were, with the high and mighty of the Westerlands. Tyrion, if he were to acknowledge “there’s a decent chance my father will disinherit me” should have, and probably would have, put his natural talents to work. He’d begin cultivating Jaime; they have a good relationship, and the support of the man who would have inherited the Rock had he not gone to the Kingsguard would matter. He’d cultivate Kevan, who he regards as a fair-minded mine. He’d cultivate his Aunt’s family, who are not Westermen but control a lot of money and men. He’d work on House Marbrand, House Crakehall, on Daven, on the moneylenders and merchant princes of Lannisport.

He’d especially work on Robert. Tyrion can be an amusing little asshole when he sets his mind to it and Robert appreciates that, and they both hate the Lannisters. Tyrion could absolutely use that. He could establish himself at court as the GOOD Lannister, as the one who always has a cup of wine and a jest at Cersei’s expense to hand, who when Robert gives him a job he always does it doesn’t fucking bother Robert with all the godsdamned coin-counting DETAILS of the fucking thing, who has Robert’s back in the Small Council, who runs interference with his brothers. He probably steers clear of Stannis, but works hard on Renly.

As for the original ask, of Tywin dropping dead before the Purple Wedding… I think in that situation, in the absence of a will naming Kevan himself, Kevan controls the balance of power re: Western support. If Kevan backs Cersei that’s the ballgame, if he doesn’t then suddenly there’s a mad scramble to lock up other support. The Tyrell’s probably get involved. I would actually wonder if the Tyrell’s don’t demand Cersei re-marry to a Tyrell as a condition of supporting her claim.

Tyrion seems to have been, pre-AGOT, in something of a comfortable rut as a courtier. As long as he avoids pissing off Tywin, the allowance money keeps going, he seems to spend most of his time at King’s Landing where he can hang out with Jaime away from dad and drink wine and read as much as he likes. The combination of self-loathing and trauma seems to have made him focus on maintaining the status quo and not making it worse for himself.

It’s part of a broader trend in conservative circles of wanting to go back to a prelapsarian constitutional order, whether that’s wanting to go back to the pre-Warren Court order (here, Brown v. Board tends to take a back seat to things like Grey v. Sanders and Baker v. Carr), or wanting to go back to the pre-New Deal order (here, the key thing is wanting to go back to Lochner era restrictions on the ability of government to regulate the economy), or in some cases, wanting to go back to a pre-Progressive Era order. 

This last variant ties together the expansion of democracy – both in the inclusion of women and the adoption of more direct democratic forms – with the expansion of Federal power, and argues that if we go back to state legislatures electing Senators instead of the masses, then not only will that empower state governments against the Federal government, but it will also tamp down on populist demands for the government to violate property rights by regulating against sawdust in bread and mandating fire escapes on factories. 

Up until recently, this was considered a very fringe position to take, but after the emergence of the Tea Party we’ve seen Republican nominees for elected office…including the U.S Senate, ironically, take this position. It doesn’t tend to do well, because it’s generally a hard sell to voters that you want them to have less rights and less power. 

I don’t think so, because it happened during the Great Game (Garth Goldenhand married his daughters to the heirs of House Lannister and Durrandon), but didn’t seem to destabilize the feudal order. Rather, I think there were competing objectives at work: marrying one’s children to an important vassal strengthens one’s position in domestic politics; marrying one’s children to another Great House strengthens one’s position in foreign relations. 

I would guess that there would be a “natural” ebb and flow to these things, where a Great House would build up their position at home with local dynastic alliance marriages, then develop ambitions southron or otherwise and make some Great House marriages, which leads to a gradual erosion of their position at home, which requires tacking back. 

Given that the last time the Faith Militant existed, they revolted against the Iron Throne and came pretty damn close to toppling the monarchy back when the Targaryens still had dragons, I think it’s entirely forseeable that re-instituting it in the midst of a religiously-inspired populist movement is going to be very bad for the monarchy. 

Which is why literally everyone around her is telling her it’s a terrible idea. 

doublehex:

racefortheironthrone:

Interesting, haven’t thought of that scenario.

However, I don’t see Tywin reacting to Rhaegar dishonoring his daughter and Aerys holding his daughter and his grandchildren hostage with fighting on his behalf, given how he reacted to Aerys holding Jaime hostage in OTL.

Well, I think the question hinges on if Rhaegar even “abduct” Lyanna if he had married Cersei. I always thought that came about mostly because Elia was not the healthiest of women, and Rhaegar felt he needed his third head.

Stephen, do you feel that Rhaegar wanted his third head to have a Northern woman, that his crowning of Lyanna was inevitable, no matter what?

I think he thought it had to be a Stark. (Also, it’s Steven w/a v.)

Marg-Robert ask 2 Doesn’t it seem like there’s a whole lot of potential trouble if it succeeds? The Florents resent the Tyrells, and now Marg gets a crown where Delena got shame, her son gets to be heir while Edric is a Storm & alienated from his mom. And Stannis is their good-kin. Is that the safeguard against any Florent reaction or does he get brought into a Florent-Tyrell war dividing the Baratheons? If Robert dies, a regency for Marg’s son HAS to turn bloody right?

1. Interesting. I think it’s possible, but I’d lean more toward a different branch of the Lannisters being given the pre-eminence. 

2. Given their actions in OTL, I think the Tyrells generally consider a crown to be worth the trouble. But as I’ve discussed before, GRRM made a bit of a mistake in making the Florents too small to really fulfill their role as a threat to the Tyrells of Highgarden.