Why was Walder Frey planning to betray Robb before he married Jeyne Westerling? Wouldn’t that be counterproductive for the Freys?

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

opinions-about-tiaras:

I’ve been mulling this over in my own mind for a bit, and… hrrm.

The
thing is, I can see “Walder Frey initially doesn’t want to get involved
because he thinks Tywin Lannister will crush the untried
fifteen-year-old, but then when Robb starts handing Tywin his ass left,
right, and center Walder figures he’s lucked into a good thing and will
stick it out, and finally decides to betray Robb after Robb betrays and shames him on top of the war suddenly turning against him.”

That seems like it works dramatically, narratively, and is consistent with the characters of everyone involved.

The
whole “Walder Frey was always going to stick the knife in and was
planning it from the very start” doesn’t sit that well with me, because,
well… Walder has no reason at all to like Tywin Lannister. Fear and
respect him, yes, but like him? Never. Tywin Lannister shamed Walder
Frey deeply when Tywin was all of ten years old, daring to speak against
a union with House Frey (and not even with the heir to House Frey) as
being beneath House Lannister and especially beneath his sister. And Tywin
did that publicly, in front of half the west.

Walder Frey should not easily forgive that. He ought to be positively gleeful at the prospect of the Young Wolf, who is going to make one of his daughters a straight-up, full-fledged Queen, whipping the shit out of Tywin all through the Riverlands and on his home turf in the West. It is only after the triple-punch of the Blackwater, the Fords, and Jeyne Westerling he ought to go “yeah, Robb is done, time to get off this sinking ship” and not, in my opinion, before.

I’ve gone to some lengths to show that the timeline doesn’t work for Robb’s betrayal to be the catalyst. But even that to one side, GRRM’s said that Walder was going to betray Robb even if Robb hadn’t broken his oath.

Here’s the thing about Walder: yes, there’s the side of him that’s emotional and petty and vindictive, but there’s also the side of him that’s deeply cautious and cunning. So yes, he doesn’t like Tywin because Tywin shamed him, but he doesn’t want to be on the losing side of the war. 

Moreover, if the price of his participation in the Red Wedding isn’t just Riverrun and Darry (and Seagard), making the Freys the undisputed lords of the Riverlands in all but name, but also making Tywin of all people have to agree to not just one but multiple marriages with the Freys, well, making Tywin sit through all those Frey weddings is just the kind of revenge Walder likes. 

racefortheironthrone:

Because Walder Frey thought Robb would lose and didn’t want to be on the wrong side of a civil war, same reason he was late to the Trident. 

I’ve gone to some lengths to show that the timeline doesn’t work for
Robb’s betrayal to be the catalyst. But even that to one side, GRRM’s
said that Walder was going to betray Robb even if Robb hadn’t broken his
oath. 

Oh, no, here’s the thing: I’m not disputing any of that, Steven. You’ve made that case in great detail, and you have Word of God to back it up. You are absolutely correct in a completely factual sense.

I’m saying that that being the case doesn’t sit well with me; that is, I think Martin could have made better creative decisions that make more sense and are less convoluted. As I said, I think “Walder Frey didn’t want to get involved, then events forced him to get involved, then he was cool sticking with Robb because Robb was winning and yay winning, until the war goes against Robb AND Robb betrays him, because Freys gonna Frey” is simple, straightforward, gets the job done.

“Walder Frey was always gonna betray Robb” just seems overdetermined to me, a case of gilding the lily and also adding a needless layer of complexity. Frey can’t just be a treacherous goon, he has to be the ULTIMATE treacherous goon, who was never, ever, not gonna be treacherous even if Robb was winning.

And it’s like… okay, but why bother? The Blackwater and the marriage betrayal provide plenty of incentive. Why not just use go with that? Especially since most casual readers and a lot of not-so-casual readers are gonna come to that conclusion anyway?

I apologize; I could have been much clearer that I wasn’t saying “this is the case” but rather “this isn’t the case but I think it should be the case.”

I think you’re misinterpreting something. Neither I nor GRRM are saying that Walder would betray Robb “even if Robb was winning,” but rather that he was going to betray Robb regardless of whether Robb broke his oath.

Blackwater, the sack of Winterfell…take out the marriage pact altogether, and Walder still had his reasons, is my point.