Hi, I would really appreciate your opinion on a disagreement I’m havng here. My scenario was that Robb somehow manages to defeat the lannisters at the start of the war. So, does Balon still attacks the North if the northerners aren’t distracted fighting Tywin and can just go back up and kick their arse?My cousin says yes “because Balon is delusional and was attacking the north out of personal revenge and not logic”. But honestly, I cant believe even Balon would be THAT stupid. I mean, come on!

opinions-about-tiaras:

racefortheironthrone:

Have you seen Balon’s war plans? Yeah, he’s that dumb. 

The truly frustrating thing is that if Balon had been just a little bit smarter, right now his son would be the Lord of Casterly Rock and the ironborn would be incorporating the Westerlands into the Kingdom of the Isles, in strong alliance with the Kingdom of the North and the Rivers. Asha would probably be betrothed to Bran to seal this alliance. House Lannister would be an extinct rump, and Renly and Stannis would be duking it out for what’s left of the south. Dorne probably takes the opportunity to break away as well, and once that happens Littlefinger probably decides that the era of a united westeros has passed and gets Lysa to declare Robin Arryn the Falcon King, after which Littlefinger weds her and becomes Regent.

I mean. They’d all be fucked when winter comes, or Daenerys arrives, course. But man, Balon had a real opportunity here and he blew it.

To add onto this, Balon’s mistake is not seeing the bigger picture wrt to how to establish and maintain (”it is not enough to claim a country; it must be held. It must be held and made secure, in every generation.”) an independent Kingdom of the Isles in the broader Westerosi geopolitical situation:

• Robb Stark is trying to create an independent Kingdom of the North and the Riverlands, in alliance with the Vale and the Iron Islands; 
• Tywin Lannister, his chief enemy, is trying to hold the Iron Throne and its claims to the whole of Westeros.
• Stannis and Renly are trying to wrest the Iron Throne and its claims to the whole of Westeros from Tywin. 

Given the dismal history of the Ironborn going up against a united Westeros (Dalton, Dagon, Balon), if the Iron Islands are to be an independent Kingdom, their highest foreign policy interest is to keep the continent divided. A victorious Robb Stark means that the North, the Riverlands, possibly the Vale (if the politics there ever returned to normal) are out of the control of the Iron Throne, and the Westerlands is at least in part or temporarily as well. If the three parties fighting to take the Iron Throne can be propped up and an outright victory prevented, the Iron Throne can’t call on the Reach or the Stormlands or half of the Crownlands, either. 

That is a geopolitical status quo – the Seven Kingdoms divided and distracted – that gives the highest likelihood for an independent Iron Islands to flourish.

But instead, Balon decides to attack the one force pushing for disunity and tries to ally with the Iron Throne without getting a formal agreement on his terms first, so that Tywin can easily ignore his request for alliance because the Ironborn have already given him what he needed. 

To reiterate, Balon is really dumb.