
I think that dramatically misreads the situation.
Rickard Karstark has been implacably wrathful ever since the Battle of the Whispering Wood, and his responses in ACOK and ASOS are driven by emotion rather than any consideration of policy. Consider that he was strongly opposed to Robb’s peace terms which only generally encompassed the idea that Jaime might eventually be traded back after Tywin’s good behavior, an extreme outlier among the Northern and Riverlords.
And even if, in some implausible scenario, Rickard Karstark had gotten his wish and Jaime had been executed rather than set free, I still think the inconsolable grief and rage that drove him would have manuevered him into some violent death – if not on the battlefield than suicide-by-king.