Do we know this for sure? At the time Stannis burned “Mance,” the king’s plan was to march on the Dreadfort, not Winterfell. Moreover, when Mel dispatched Mance, her plan was for him to meet Arya by Long Lake, since Mel thought she was the girl on the horse fleeing her marriage (of course, that turned out to be Alys Karstark). It came off to me like Mance came up with the “infiltrate Winterfell” plan all on his own.
This is one of the few things I’m proud to have caught in my first read (and I missed tons) because most people seem to be unaware that Stannis knew about the switch.
My suspicion awakened when I saw Rattleshirt in Stannis war council. WTF was he doing there? Unlike Sigorn, Rattleshirt is a nobody whom his own fellow raiders balk at him. Stannis would have never invited someone like him, ruby or not.
There is also Val, who tried to escape a few times and even kill her guards, at the same time begging Stannis to spare Mance’s life and promising to marry a kneeler if he does so. Next scene, Val stands besides Stannis during the burning and behaves meekly afterwards.
And if Val knows… maybe Tormund does too, adding extra trust to his deal with Jon and explaining what I see as feigned surprise during the reading of the Pink Letter’s Mance tidings.
That still leaves me curious as to what Stannis’ plan for Mance actually was, especially given the timing. What did Stannis get out of this, exactly? How is it worth the risk? The Boltons aren’t occupying Winterfell at this point, so there’s nothing to infiltrate, and anyway, Stannis doesn’t send him on a mission, but instead leaves him with Jon at the Wall while planning to march on the Dreadfort. Mel wonders to herself regarding Mance “was I wrong to spare this one?” with no mention of Stannis’ involvement, and it would hardly be the first time she manipulated events beyond his knowledge.
My guess it had nothing to to with Winterfell at that point but this interaction with Jon might have convinced Stannis
Even if she (Val) accepts her husband, that does not mean the wildlings will
follow him, or you. The only man who can bind them to your cause is Mance Rayder.“I know that,” Stannis said, unhappily. "I have spent hours speaking with the man. He knows much and more of our true enemy, and there is cunning in him, I’ll grant you. Even if he were to renounce his kingship, though, the
man remains an oathbreaker. Suffer one deserter to live, and you
encourage others to desert. No. Laws should be made of iron, not of
pudding. Mance Rayder’s life is forfeit by every law of the Seven
Kingdoms.““The law ends at the Wall, Your Grace. You could make good use of Mance.”
So, any original plan was likely seeking the allegiance of the Free Folk to his cause.
Edit: And Mel mentions Stannis but she is unclear who took the decision
Yes. Mance was supposed to be his advance man in Winterfell destabilizing the Boltons ahead of the Battle of Ice.
“Our false king has a prickly manner,” Melisandre told Jon Snow, “but he
will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his
very life.”“Me?” Snow sounded startled.
“Who else, my lord? Only his life’s blood could pay for his crimes,
your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law
… but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall.
I love when my intuitions are validated by people who remember ADWD better than I do!
RFTIT Tumblr Backup 