Suppose that in addition to the attack  on the North or instead, Balon decides to launch a surprise attack on the Arbor to destroy the redwyne fleet. If this happens before Stannis’ attack on Bitterbridge, what do Renly and Mace do? If it happens concurrently what do they do? If it happens after Renly’s death what does Mace do (Does it butterfly the alliance with Lannisters?)? And if it happens after the battle of the black water how does it affect things?

I don’t think Balon has the naval capacity to do both at the same time, tbh.