What do you think made Sharra Arryn believe that Aegon would accept her offer? Particularly the bit that her son Ronnel be named his heir?

goodqueenaly:

Thanks for the question, Anon.

I guess that supposes Sharra thought everything she offered would be accepted, which we have too limited information about to say was certainly true or not. Maybe she thought to demand high, bring Aegon to the bargaining table, and then negotiate down to a place where both parties would be happy.

Nevertheless, Sharra might well have thought she was in a relatively strong position among the composite kings and rulers of Westeros at the time she sent her letter. The Vale had sunk or captured 2/3 of the Targaryen navy at Gulltown and killed Aegon’s cousin and master of ships, Daemon Velaryon; the victory had come at a high (draconic) price, of course, but the Regent Sharra might have thought Aegon would have been more willing to negotiate with an enemy that had stung him even with a “hastily assembled” force. Sharra had also taken pains to bulk up the Vale’s defenses, sending an army to wait at the Bloody Gate and tripling the garrisons at the Giant’s Lance castles – which, in any traditional Westerosi war, would have all but guaranteed the Vale and its boy-king would remain untouchable. Again, this high defense strategy might have made Sharra think that Aegon would prefer to take the Vale as a bridal package intact, rather than fight his way through its defenses and up to the “impregnable” Eyrie.

As far as Ronnel goes, Sharra might have been thinking that Aegon would like getting a kingdom and heir in a single bargain. He himself, after all, was still childless after some years of marriage to two different women, and indeed would not have a son and heir until 7 AC. If he died during or soon after his Conquest, his nascent kingdom would be doubtless torn asunder by formerly independent dynasties … unless he had a powerful figure who believed in his unifying vision and would be willing to continue his program of conquest. Ronnel would be a Targaryen successor in all but blood (and maybe name), upholding the vision his “father” had had for Westeros (and, incidentally, ensuring that House Arryn won @racefortheironthrone’s “Great Game”).

The Queen Regent (NFriel)

Excellent points! I would also add that we have to keep in mind that Sharra’s offer needs to be taken as part of a longer strategy of diplomacy. When Aegon had first crowned himself at King’s Landing, “another offer of alliance came from the boy king of the Eyrie, Ronnel Arryn, whose mother asked
for all the lands east of the Green Fork of the Trident for the Vale’s support against Black Harren.”

So Sharra had continuously held out the Vale’s alliance in return for territorial consideration, and I imagine she thought the same thing of this second offer. Namely, that’s she’s playing by the normal rules of the Great Game and hoping for a normal response in return: hey, we’re willing to deal…ok why are you attacking? We had basically a draw off of Gulltown, here’s an offer just to show no hard feelings…

I don’t think she really understood that Aegon and Co. weren’t playing by the rules until Visenya showed up at the Eyrie with her dragon.