Steven, re: the recent talk about feudal military service and the politics thereof… do you think Lord Selwyn was/is trying to thread that needle? Tarth is a large fief that ought to support a levy of men larger than “one” but one is precisely the number of people who ride forth from Tarth. Brienne isn’t at the head of a column, she’s flying solo. That says to me Selwyn is hedging; if Renly wins his daughter was in his service, if the Lannisters win he can play the “I didn’t send levies” card.

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I’m pretty sure that’s exactly what he did. 

We learn in the Prologue to ACOK that only half the Stormlords actually sent men to Renly, while the other half “sit behind their walls waiting to see how the wind rises and who is likely triumph.” And Selwyn Tarth is explicitly listed as belonging to that faction, as Davos reports:

“I broke bread with Gulian Swann and old Penrose, and the Tarths consented to a midnight meeting in a grove.”

So yeah, I think Selwyn held back his levies but let his idealistic daughter pursue her dreams. 

I had forgotten that!

Man, this makes me revise my opinion of Renly downward yet again. The other four Lords Paramount who are willing to make war against the Iron Throne, Mace Tyrell, Hoster Tully, Robb Stark, and Balon Greyjoy, manage to get the vast majority of their bannermen on-side for a little light usurpation, treason, revenge, and empire-building. If Doran Martell had decided to do so his bannermen would almost certainly have done so as well.

But Renly only gets half the Stormlords? Did he spend literally his entire Lord Paramountcy at court or at Highgarden and entirely neglect Storm’s End? Renly is charismatic and young and looks to all the world like Robert come again, you would think if he’d invested the time into working over the lords of his own fief they’d have been way more willing to follow him, especially since they’d been willing to rise for Robert and Renly could play the “you all loved Robert and the Lannisters murdered him” card.

I’ve never been a huge fan of Renly as a person but I did think he had a basic level of competency in that the Stormlands didn’t seem to be terribly misruled. I still kinda think that but I’m having to revise it down again.

Sidebar: I’d like to see and know more about Selwyn. He seems like a good dad. There’s an argument he’s playing fast and loose with the stability of his house and the succession thereof (maybe Brienne has cousins?) but that’s a political question, not a personal one. He raised a hell of a daughter.

Yeah, it’s kind of hard to tell, because Renly is presenting the opposite image, but you can pull it out from a few things: first, which banners does Catelyn see and not see when she visits his camp; second, whose support does Renly claim when he meets Stannis at Storm’s End; third, pure numbers – if Renly had the whole of the Stormlands behind him, he ought to have had 125,000 men rather than 100,000 behind him.

Now it’s true that A. Renly was relying very heavily on the Reach to put him on the Iron Throne, and B. not all of the Reach was present either, but it’s not looking great as far as support from the Stormlands goes.

This makes Tywin’s line in ASOS re: Stannis (”If he tries to rouse the Storm Lords he’s finished”) make more sense, if there’s another potential host there to be raised. I’m learning things today!

This also has some rather interesting implications for the numbers that Aegon might be able to rally to his cause, if the Stormlands, hitherto untouched by war, were holding back men. They may not look kindly on this Targaryen (or, as I imagine some are already muttering, this Blackfyre) and his foreign army who is treating with the Dornish… but Aegon, like Renly, cuts a fine figure and seizing Storm’s End is a pretty big feather in his cap. With the Lannister host melting away into the Westerlands and the Riverlands, and the Reach beset by both political and military strife, if Aegon can get even ten to fifteen thousand men out of the Storm Lords that would give him a host in the vicinity of twenty-five thousand, which probably punches well above its weight because Golden Company.

I think that’s a strong possibility – and I think capturing Storm’s End, which GRRM has spent a good deal of time setting up, will be a big part of that. 

Moreover, I don’t think the Targ thing would actually be a hindrance – remember, Robert had to defeat his own bannermen at Summerhall before he got them on board, so Connington wasn’t the only Targaryen loyalist in the Stormlands. 

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